Maxwell Week 9 Projections

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

Each game is listed showing the game rate, favorite, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, the projected margin, and the opponent.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.

Oct 13

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
38.05 AA Callaway 92.2% 24 Heard County AA
34.60 AA Southwest 50.8% 1 Dublin AA
29.18 AAAA Luella 73.4% 10 North Clayton AAAA
16.27 AAAAA South Effingham 77.7% 13 New Hampstead AAAAA
-0.46 AAA Beach 60.3% 4 Islands AAA

Oct 14

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
78.30 AAAAAA Northside (Warner Robins) 52.7% 1 Lee County AAAAAA
77.11 AAAAAAA Grayson 84.4% 17 Archer AAAAAAA
69.89 AAAAAAA Lowndes 75.0% 11 Tift County AAAAAAA
67.48 AAAAAA Hughes 56.2% 3 Alexander AAAAAA
67.02 AAAAAAA North Cobb 62.8% 6 North Paulding AAAAAAA
64.92 AAAAAA Houston County 58.8% 4 Coffee AAAAAA
64.82 AAAAAAA Mill Creek 95.4% 30 Peachtree Ridge AAAAAAA
63.79 AAAAAAA Lassiter 79.2% 14 Woodstock AAAAAAA
62.63 AAAA Cartersville 90.4% 22 Sandy Creek AAAA
61.69 AAAAAAA Roswell 97.5% 35 Walton AAAAAAA
57.77 AAAAAAA Colquitt County 94.7% 28 Camden County AAAAAAA
56.90 AAAAAAA South Forsyth 69.9% 9 Milton AAAAAAA
55.81 AAA Pace Academy 55.3% 2 Cedar Grove AAA
55.21 AAAA Woodward Academy 85.1% 17 Eastside AAAA
55.07 AAAAAA Glynn Academy 84.5% 17 Brunswick AAAAAA
54.58 AAAAAAA East Coweta 74.3% 11 Wheeler AAAAAAA
54.56 AAAAAA Johns Creek 58.8% 4 Alpharetta AAAAAA
54.28 AAAAAA Tucker 90.9% 23 Lovejoy AAAAAA
54.27 AAAAAAA Brookwood 84.3% 17 Central Gwinnett AAAAAAA
53.68 AAAAAAA Lambert 64.3% 6 North Forsyth AAAAAAA
53.42 AAAAAAA Hillgrove 77.8% 13 Marietta AAAAAAA
51.73 AAAAA Woodland (Stockbridge) 84.2% 17 Dutchtown AAAAA
51.17 AAAAAA Dacula 53.9% 2 Gainesville AAAAAA
51.05 AAAAAA Dalton 85.0% 17 Sequoyah AAAAAA
50.57 AAAAAA Allatoona 77.3% 12 Sprayberry AAAAAA
47.50 AAAAA Locust Grove 70.5% 9 Ola AAAAA
47.10 AAAAAA Stephenson 69.8% 9 Drew AAAAAA
46.99 AAAA Cairo 77.5% 13 Carver (Columbus) AAAA
46.91 AAAAAAA Mountain View 89.1% 21 Collins Hill AAAAAAA
46.69 AAAA Oconee County 65.8% 7 St. Pius X AAAA
45.52 AAAAA Carrollton 86.0% 18 Hiram AAAAA
44.37 AAAAA Thomas County Central 86.7% 19 Veterans AAAAA
44.36 AAAA Troup 74.0% 11 LaGrange AAAA
44.35 AAAA Marist 81.3% 15 West Hall AAAA
43.73 AAA Liberty County 64.4% 6 Appling County AAA
43.61 A – Public Twiggs County 61.8% 5 Tattnall Square A – Private
43.57 AAAA Stephens County 78.9% 13 Madison County AAAA
42.96 AAAAA Rome 93.2% 26 Cass AAAAA
42.46 AAAAA Griffin 83.1% 16 Fayette County AAAAA
42.23 AAAAA Warner Robins 64.9% 6 Harris County AAAAA
41.36 AAAAA Kell 96.1% 31 Villa Rica AAAAA
40.94 AAAAA Stockbridge 96.8% 33 Eagle’s Landing AAAAA
40.18 A – Public Mount Zion (Carroll) 66.6% 7 Bowdon A – Public
39.42 AAAAA Carver (Atlanta) 81.4% 15 Riverwood AAAAA
38.86 AA Washington County 63.7% 6 Dodge County AA
38.65 AAAAAAA Westlake 94.2% 27 Pebblebrook AAAAAAA
38.58 AAAAAA Douglas County 85.8% 18 Tri-Cities AAAAAA
38.53 AAAAAAA McEachern 98.8% 39 Kennesaw Mountain AAAAAAA
38.39 AAA Crisp County 87.1% 19 Monroe AAA
37.63 AAAAAA Lanier 92.1% 24 Habersham Central AAAAAA
37.28 A – Public Clinch County 80.7% 14 Turner County A – Public
37.16 AAAA Northwest Whitfield 61.3% 5 Pickens AAAA
37.01 AAA Jackson 73.9% 11 Central (Macon) AAA
36.94 AAAA Upson-Lee 60.5% 5 Perry AAAA
36.80 A – Private Fellowship Christian 72.1% 10 Pinecrest Academy A – Private
36.68 AAAA Hardaway 58.7% 4 Northside (Columbus) AAAA
36.41 A – Private Stratford Academy 56.3% 3 First Presbyterian A – Private
36.15 AAAAAAA Norcross 99.4% 40 Lakeside (Atlanta) AAAAAAA
35.88 AA Benedictine 97.4% 34 Toombs County AA
35.45 AAAAAAA West Forsyth 95.9% 31 Forsyth Central AAAAAAA
35.27 AAAAAAA Shiloh 87.0% 19 Rockdale County AAAAAAA
34.87 AAAAAA Cambridge 84.7% 17 Northview AAAAAA
34.42 AAAAA Starr’s Mill 82.4% 16 McIntosh AAAAA
34.40 AAA Sonoraville 68.5% 8 Adairsville AAA
34.13 AAAAA Loganville 89.6% 22 Flowery Branch AAAAA
33.96 AAAAAA Evans 74.7% 11 Grovetown AAAAAA
33.79 AA Pepperell 81.7% 15 Rockmart AA
32.85 AAAAAA M.L. King 53.4% 2 Jonesboro AAAAAA
32.76 AAA Lovett 90.5% 22 Redan AAA
32.74 AAAA Westover 75.9% 12 Columbus AAAA
32.65 AAAAAA South Paulding 56.2% 3 New Manchester AAAAAA
32.43 AAAAAA Mundy’s Mill 73.3% 10 Mount Zion (Jonesboro) AAAAAA
31.17 A – Private Aquinas 68.0% 8 Greene County A – Public
30.53 AAAAA Buford 99.5% 41 Cedar Shoals AAAAA
30.43 AAAAAA Creekview 90.9% 23 River Ridge AAAAAA
30.24 AA Hapeville Charter 72.6% 10 B.E.S.T. Academy AA
30.20 AAA North Hall 62.6% 5 Union County AAA
29.09 AAAA Ridgeland 90.0% 22 Heritage (Ringgold) AAAA
28.87 AAAAAA Harrison 99.1% 40 South Cobb AAAAAA
28.65 AAAAAA Heritage (Conyers) 83.0% 16 Greenbrier AAAAAA
28.30 AAAAA Grady 97.3% 34 North Springs AAAAA
28.28 AAAA Thomson 98.9% 39 Baldwin AAAA
27.27 A – Private Darlington 85.6% 18 Trion A – Public
27.13 AAAAAA Pope 78.4% 13 Dunwoody AAAAAA
27.07 AAAAA Southwest DeKalb 84.0% 17 Miller Grove AAAAA
26.98 AAAAA Ware County 98.3% 37 Statesboro AAAAA
26.97 AAAAAA Richmond Hill 90.5% 23 Bradwell Institute AAAAAA
26.93 AAA Cook 85.1% 18 Dougherty AAA
26.61 AAA Tattnall County 50.5% 1 Brantley County AAA
26.37 AA Model 87.7% 20 Chattooga AA
26.26 AAAA Americus-Sumter 82.8% 16 Shaw AAAA
26.05 AAAAAA Centennial 95.6% 30 North Atlanta AAAAAA
25.81 AAAAA Jones County 96.8% 33 Union Grove AAAAA
25.75 AA Fitzgerald 97.9% 36 Berrien AA
25.00 AAAA Blessed Trinity 96.8% 33 Chestatee AAAA
24.61 AA Thomasville 84.9% 17 Early County AA
24.50 AAAA Chapel Hill 85.0% 17 Central (Carrollton) AAAA
24.31 A – Public Lincoln County 79.8% 14 Warren County A – Public
23.97 AAA Greater Atlanta Christian 99.2% 40 Lumpkin County AAA
23.65 AAA North Murray 56.9% 3 Ringgold AAA
22.74 AAAAA Banneker 82.8% 16 Decatur AAAAA
22.72 A – Public Randolph-Clay 75.4% 11 Pelham A – Public
22.59 AAAAAAA North Gwinnett 99.3% 40 Duluth AAAAAAA
21.11 AAAAAAA Newnan 95.7% 30 Campbell AAAAAAA
21.09 AA Swainsboro 60.4% 4 Bacon County AA
21.06 A – Public Washington-Wilkes 73.1% 10 Hancock Central A – Public
21.00 A – Public Manchester 95.5% 30 Brookstone A – Private
20.85 AAA Peach County 97.6% 35 Rutland AAA
19.91 A – Private Savannah Christian 81.4% 15 Savannah Country Day A – Private
19.60 A – Public Telfair County 60.1% 4 Atkinson County A – Public
19.46 AAA Hart County 88.3% 20 Jackson County AAA
19.06 AAAA Jefferson 98.3% 37 North Oconee AAAA
18.36 AAA Southeast Bulloch 81.4% 15 Savannah AAA
18.05 AAAA Burke County 97.0% 33 Richmond Academy AAAA
17.54 A – Public Mitchell County 76.3% 12 Seminole County A – Public
17.10 AAAA Salem 91.1% 23 Henry County AAAA
17.10 AA Bryan County 72.9% 10 Metter AA
16.62 AAA Pike County 89.8% 22 Kendrick AAA
16.09 A – Public Taylor County 82.3% 15 Hawkinsville A – Public
15.70 A – Public Dooly County 90.2% 22 Crawford County A – Public
15.55 AAAAA East Paulding 95.8% 30 Woodland (Cartersville) AAAAA
15.08 AAAAA Maynard Jackson 71.6% 9 Lithia Springs AAAAA
14.85 A – Private Prince Avenue Christian 96.0% 31 Hebron Christian Academy A – Private
14.36 AAA Dawson County 94.1% 27 Fannin County AAA
14.14 AAA Morgan County 90.1% 22 Monroe Area AAA
13.63 AA Vidalia 95.3% 29 Jeff Davis AA
12.39 AA Spencer 92.9% 25 Temple AA
12.37 AAA Pierce County 96.3% 31 Long County AAA
12.12 AA Lamar County 93.8% 27 Jordan AA
11.69 AA Putnam County 52.3% 1 Monticello AA
11.59 A – Public Jenkins County 58.8% 4 Wheeler County A – Public
11.01 AA Dade County 56.5% 3 Coosa AA
10.84 AAAA Southeast Whitfield 62.8% 5 Gilmer AAAA
10.32 A – Private Mount de Sales 66.5% 7 Wilkinson County A – Public
8.35 AA Brooks County 99.0% 39 Albany AA
8.04 A – Public Macon County 98.8% 39 Schley County A – Public
7.42 AAA Westminster (Atlanta) 99.6% 41 McNair AAA
5.97 AAA Franklin County 91.6% 24 East Jackson AAA
5.77 AA Jefferson County 98.9% 39 Butler AA
5.25 A – Public Charlton County 90.0% 22 Wilcox County A – Public
5.02 AA East Laurens 62.5% 5 Bleckley County AA
4.37 AAA Bremen 94.0% 27 Haralson County AAA
2.53 A – Private Athens Christian 92.5% 25 Towns County A – Public
1.03 A – Public Irwin County 98.2% 37 Lanier County A – Public
0.71 A – Private Mount Paran Christian 98.6% 38 Whitefield Academy A – Private
-1.68 A – Private George Walton Academy 95.2% 29 Lakeview Academy A – Private
-1.76 AAAAAAA Parkview 99.9% 42 Berkmar AAAAAAA
-2.11 A – Private King’s Ridge Christian 74.1% 11 St. Francis A – Private
-2.12 A – Public McIntosh County Academy 98.5% 38 Claxton A – Public
-2.15 AA Rabun County 99.8% 41 Social Circle AA
-2.57 A – Private Calvary Day 99.2% 40 Portal A – Public
-3.80 AAA Jenkins 98.4% 37 Groves AAA
-4.15 AAAAA Clarke Central 99.2% 40 Johnson (Gainesville) AAAAA
-4.55 A – Public Commerce 97.0% 33 Riverside Military Academy A – Private
-5.18 AA Screven County 98.7% 38 Westside (Augusta) AA
-5.92 A – Private Christian Heritage 77.3% 12 North Cobb Christian A – Private
-6.09 A – Public Chattahoochee County 74.2% 11 Calhoun County A – Public
-6.28 A – Public Marion County 97.6% 35 Central (Talbotton) A – Public
-7.10 AAA Windsor Forest 85.7% 18 Johnson (Savannah) AAA
-7.22 A – Private Pacelli 67.7% 8 Greenville A – Public
-10.46 AA Banks County 92.9% 26 Oglethorpe County AA
-15.33 AA Armuchee 77.5% 13 Gordon Central AA
-16.13 A – Private Athens Academy 99.2% 40 Providence Christian A – Private
-19.22 A – Public Baconton Charter 62.6% 5 Stewart County A – Public
-22.61 AAA Murray County 98.5% 38 Coahulla Creek AAA
-26.67 A – Other Georgia Military College 95.4% 30 Glascock County A – Other
-29.46 AAAAA Clarkston 72.5% 10 Cross Keys AAAAA

Oct 15

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
60.54 AAAAAA Mays 85.2% 18 Creekside AAAAAA
26.28 AAAAA Arabia Mountain 94.4% 28 Columbia AAAAA
25.04 AAAAAA Lakeside (Evans) 56.7% 3 Alcovy AAAAAA
24.11 AA Douglass 71.9% 10 Therrell AA
23.69 AA K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 64.8% 6 Washington AA
18.18 AAAAA Lithonia 83.3% 16 Chamblee AAAAA
11.61 AAAAA Riverdale 97.9% 36 Morrow AAAAA
7.67 AA Josey 59.2% 4 Harlem AA
0.54 AAA Towers 82.5% 16 Stone Mountain AAA
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