Maxwell Week 6 Summary: Toughest regular season schedules; each team’s chance of going undefeated

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia’s 421 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

– Buford finally finished their three game out of state run, which itself was preceded by a bye week. To date, the Wolves have only one GHSA game on the season while other teams have as many as six. An unfortunate limitation of the ratings is that out of state games are more or less ignored because of the difficultly in collecting the data. As a result, Buford’s current schedule strength sits at 98.52, the rating of their sole GHSA opponent, Roswell.

However Colquitt County and Archer have the toughest regular season schedules in total by roughly a touchdown. Buford’s drops significantly when considering their entire slate of opponents, down to 41.18, good enough for only number 173 in the state.

Below are the top 15 schedule strengths in total, not counting out of state opponents:

Team Class Rec Rating Sch Str TD Rank Sch Str Tot Rank
Colquitt County AAAAAAA 2-4 86.60 84.40 4 77.96 1
Archer AAAAAAA 1-4 75.02 86.31 2 76.31 2
Roswell AAAAAAA 4-0 98.52 77.11 5 69.56 3
Valdosta AAAAAA 5-1 81.88 66.25 16 69.49 4
Coffee AAAAAA 3-2 64.11 61.95 34 67.83 5
Shiloh AAAAAAA 1-4 52.78 65.25 20 67.16 6
Tift County AAAAAAA 4-2 66.67 60.80 40 67.10 7
Walton AAAAAAA 3-2 67.87 60.91 39 66.43 8
Lowndes AAAAAAA 5-1 76.34 62.08 33 66.32 9
Cherokee AAAAAAA 2-3 57.42 59.74 43 66.30 10
Camden County AAAAAAA 1-4 62.07 71.17 7 65.65 11
Grayson AAAAAAA 3-1 92.05 85.11 3 65.15 12
Hillgrove AAAAAAA 2-3 62.60 64.88 22 64.69 13
Etowah AAAAAAA 4-1 71.05 57.10 52 64.68 14
South Gwinnett AAAAAAA 4-1 71.40 64.58 26 64.50 15

– Here’s another look at the regular season schedule strengths in total for the 47 undefeated teams, along with their projected record and their probability of finishing undefeated.

Team Class Rec Rating Sch Str TD Rank Sch Str Tot Rank Projected Rec Undefeated
Benedictine AA 5-0 73.83 43.42 148 31.10 261 9.92 – 0.08 92.3%
Thomson AAAA 4-0 71.88 53.86 74 34.38 234 9.82 – 0.18 82.3%
Mill Creek AAAAAAA 5-0 92.99 64.70 25 59.78 33 9.77 – 0.23 78.5%
Jefferson County AA 5-0 54.18 28.77 279 21.74 347 9.72 – 0.28 73.7%
Roswell AAAAAAA 4-0 98.52 77.11 5 69.56 3 9.66 – 0.34 70.6%
Cartersville AAAA 5-0 83.67 53.86 75 50.04 85 9.67 – 0.33 69.3%
Model AA 5-0 51.52 29.39 274 24.45 322 9.63 – 0.37 67.4%
Callaway AA 5-0 63.65 44.48 141 37.09 204 9.60 – 0.40 65.6%
Prince Avenue Christian A – Private 5-0 50.43 19.96 342 17.04 384 9.59 – 0.41 64.5%
Griffin AAAAA 5-0 68.60 45.46 132 42.84 150 9.57 – 0.43 63.5%
Eagle’s Landing Christian A – Private 5-0 62.85 31.73 247 30.14 271 9.58 – 0.42 62.5%
Rabun County AA 3-0 57.44 41.17 178 22.46 344 8.56 – 0.44 †61.2%
Norcross AAAAAAA 5-0 84.72 64.97 21 57.81 37 9.50 – 0.50 57.0%
Ridgeland AAAA 4-0 52.94 39.15 191 29.52 276 8.42 – 0.58 †52.3%
Stockbridge AAAAA 4-0 73.98 56.58 56 50.27 82 9.41 – 0.59 51.8%
Harrison AAAAAA 5-0 74.98 56.75 53 53.79 64 9.18 – 0.82 39.1%
Calvary Day A – Private 4-0 47.75 2.21 413 12.00 403 9.19 – 0.81 35.2%
Emanuel County Institute A – Public 5-0 42.04 10.41 392 9.95 408 9.21 – 0.79 34.1%
Manchester A – Public 5-0 48.57 26.75 296 19.94 362 9.20 – 0.80 30.9%
Fitzgerald AA 4-0 67.37 42.90 150 39.92 181 8.98 – 1.02 27.3%
Mitchell County A – Public 5-0 28.24 6.81 401 7.52 415 8.89 – 1.11 27.2%
Brooks County AA 4-0 62.29 48.30 114 42.56 151 8.79 – 1.21 19.1%
Northside (Warner Robins) AAAAAA 5-0 81.34 50.86 98 60.82 27 8.65 – 1.35 18.1%
Dalton AAAAAA 4-0 68.47 48.91 110 49.84 88 8.62 – 1.38 14.9%
Liberty County AAA 4-0 51.92 28.65 280 32.47 247 8.52 – 1.48 14.0%
Wesleyan A – Private 5-0 50.66 26.90 294 25.32 317 8.75 – 1.25 12.8%
Carrollton AAAAA 4-0 67.24 44.74 140 50.46 81 8.46 – 1.54 12.5%
Dublin AA 5-0 40.33 22.14 330 25.81 311 8.38 – 1.62 10.7%
Northgate AAAAAA 5-0 69.17 51.75 91 54.51 60 8.32 – 1.68 9.2%
Fellowship Christian A – Private 4-0 38.73 21.80 334 20.35 357 8.37 – 1.63 8.0%
First Presbyterian A – Private 4-0 39.48 24.76 316 27.21 298 8.14 – 1.86 7.4%
Athens Academy A – Private 4-0 35.38 11.65 387 14.51 392 8.36 – 1.64 6.3%
Landmark Christian A – Private 5-0 46.42 24.08 320 26.71 302 8.31 – 1.69 4.9%
Crisp County AAA 5-0 50.53 32.97 240 37.92 195 7.92 – 2.08 4.7%
Lee County AAAAAA 5-0 74.79 50.72 101 61.77 24 6.77 – 2.23 †3.7%
Randolph-Clay A – Public 4-0 21.12 -4.96 418 7.84 414 7.59 – 2.41 3.6%
North Paulding AAAAAAA 5-0 68.32 51.43 95 56.18 50 7.71 – 2.29 2.2%
Houston County AAAAAA 6-0 73.08 52.79 82 61.50 25 7.52 – 2.48 2.2%
Lassiter AAAAAAA 5-0 75.89 58.78 48 63.77 17 7.84 – 2.16 2.0%
Tattnall Square A – Private 4-0 35.76 11.68 385 21.38 349 7.39 – 2.61 1.9%
Central (Macon) AAA 5-0 41.67 24.94 315 31.40 258 7.62 – 2.38 1.8%
Alexander AAAAAA 4-0 64.65 49.50 107 57.52 41 7.11 – 2.89 1.2%
Mount Zion (Carroll) A – Public 4-0 33.79 3.46 411 19.19 368 7.33 – 2.67 1.1%
Richmond Hill AAAAAA 4-0 50.95 37.58 205 42.15 160 6.46 – 2.54 †0.9%
Greenbrier AAAAAA 5-0 32.03 15.12 371 26.63 304 6.57 – 3.43 0.4%
Madison County AAAA 5-0 43.90 26.76 295 37.95 194 6.69 – 3.31 0.2%
Crawford County A – Public 3-0 19.43 5.01 405 18.45 378 4.87 – 4.13 †0.0%

† – Nine game regular season schedule

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 20.28%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 893 of 969 total games including 7 tie(s) (92.52%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.68 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 0.45

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Roswell 4-0 98.52 1 Valdosta 5-1 81.88
2 Mill Creek 5-0 92.99 2 Northside (Warner Robins) 5-0 81.34
3 Grayson 3-1 92.05 3 Tucker 4-1 77.43
4 Colquitt County 2-4 86.60 4 Mays 3-1 75.05
5 Norcross 5-0 84.72 5 Harrison 5-0 74.98
6 McEachern 4-1 84.66 6 Lee County 5-0 74.79
7 Lowndes 5-1 76.34 7 Houston County 6-0 73.08
8 Lassiter 5-0 75.89 8 Glynn Academy 4-1 72.54
9 Archer 1-4 75.02 9 Northgate 5-0 69.17
10 Parkview 3-1 72.62 10 Hughes 4-1 68.64
11 North Cobb 4-1 72.61 11 Dalton 4-0 68.47
12 North Gwinnett 3-2 72.54 12 Alexander 4-0 64.65
13 Brookwood 3-2 71.96 13 Coffee 3-2 64.11
14 South Gwinnett 4-1 71.40 14 Lanier 3-2 63.03
15 Etowah 4-1 71.05 15 Creekside 4-1 62.71
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 3-1 86.02 1 Cartersville 5-0 83.67
2 Stockbridge 4-0 73.98 2 Sandy Creek 3-1 72.52
3 Kell 4-1 72.93 3 Thomson 4-0 71.88
4 Ware County 2-2 69.37 4 Woodward Academy 4-1 71.21
5 Griffin 5-0 68.60 5 Blessed Trinity 4-2 62.62
6 Carrollton 4-0 67.24 6 Jefferson 4-1 62.11
7 Rome 2-2 64.70 7 Spalding 3-2 60.71
8 Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-1 63.95 8 Marist 3-2 58.16
9 Thomas County Central 4-2 61.03 9 Cairo 4-1 57.85
10 Grady 4-1 60.56 10 Mary Persons 3-2 55.77
11 Jones County 3-2 60.19 11 Burke County 4-1 55.48
12 Arabia Mountain 4-1 56.05 12 Stephens County 4-1 53.89
13 Carver (Atlanta) 4-1 55.32 13 Ridgeland 4-0 52.94
14 Loganville 4-1 54.31 14 Eastside 3-1-1 52.82
15 Bainbridge 1-3 52.98 15 Oconee County 4-1 52.17
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 4-1 72.17 1 Benedictine 5-0 73.83
2 Westminster (Atlanta) 3-2 63.62 2 Fitzgerald 4-0 67.37
3 Calhoun 3-2 60.59 3 Callaway 5-0 63.65
4 Pace Academy 4-1 60.03 4 Brooks County 4-0 62.29
5 Peach County 4-1 59.48 5 Rabun County 3-0 57.44
6 Cedar Grove 3-2 57.31 6 Jefferson County 5-0 54.18
7 Lovett 3-2 55.62 7 Model 5-0 51.52
8 Liberty County 4-0 51.92 8 Washington County 2-2 45.93
9 Crisp County 5-0 50.53 9 Elbert County 3-1-1 45.35
10 Cook 2-3 48.36 10 Vidalia 3-2 44.72
11 Pierce County 3-2 47.45 11 Heard County 5-1 43.01
12 Monroe 2-2 46.08 12 Screven County 4-1 42.43
13 Westside (Macon) 2-3 44.65 13 Thomasville 1-3 41.52
14 Appling County 3-1 43.98 14 Dublin 5-0 40.33
15 Hart County 0-4-1 42.45 15 Lamar County 3-2 37.89
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 3-1 52.20 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 5-0 62.85
2 Clinch County 4-1 51.35 2 Wesleyan 5-0 50.66
3 Manchester 5-0 48.57 3 Prince Avenue Christian 5-0 50.43
4 Emanuel County Institute 5-0 42.04 4 Darlington 4-1 48.79
5 Irwin County 2-3 40.79 5 Calvary Day 4-0 47.75
6 Bowdon 3-2 38.54 6 Landmark Christian 5-0 46.42
7 McIntosh County Academy 3-1 36.38 7 Stratford Academy 3-1 41.87
8 Lincoln County 2-1-1 36.32 8 Mount Paran Christian 3-1 40.89
9 Twiggs County 3-1 35.15 9 Pinecrest Academy 3-1 40.50
10 Dooly County 2-3 34.30 10 Aquinas 2-2 40.45
11 Turner County 3-2 33.88 11 First Presbyterian 4-0 39.48
12 Commerce 3-1 33.81 12 Fellowship Christian 4-0 38.73
13 Mount Zion (Carroll) 4-0 33.79 13 Savannah Christian 3-1 38.71
14 Marion County 3-2 30.60 14 Tattnall Square 4-0 35.76
15 Charlton County 1-3 29.22 15 Athens Academy 4-0 35.38

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 4-0 98.52 77.11 5
2 [2] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 5-0 92.99 64.70 25
3 [3] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 3-1 92.05 85.11 3
4 [4] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-4 86.60 84.40 4
5 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 3-1 86.02 98.52 1
6 [5] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 5-0 84.72 64.97 21
7 [6] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 4-1 84.66 67.34 12
8 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 5-0 83.67 53.86 75
9 [1] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 5-1 81.88 66.25 16
10 [2] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 5-0 81.34 50.86 98
11 [3] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 4-1 77.43 52.55 84
12 [7] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 5-1 76.34 62.08 33
13 [8] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 5-0 75.89 58.78 48
14 [4] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 3-1 75.05 64.76 23
15 [9] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 1-4 75.02 86.31 2
16 [5] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 5-0 74.98 56.75 53
17 [6] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 5-0 74.79 50.72 101
18 [2] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 4-0 73.98 56.58 56
19 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 5-0 73.83 43.42 148
20 [7] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 6-0 73.08 52.79 82
21 [3] Kell 7 – AAAAA 4-1 72.93 63.35 28
22 [10] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 3-1 72.62 65.59 18
23 [11] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 4-1 72.61 63.17 29
24 [12] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 3-2 72.54 67.44 11
25 [8] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 4-1 72.54 61.64 36
26 [2] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 3-1 72.52 47.32 117
27 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 4-1 72.17 51.20 96
28 [13] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 3-2 71.96 68.82 9
29 [3] Thomson 3 – AAAA 4-0 71.88 53.86 74
30 [14] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 4-1 71.40 64.58 26
31 [4] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 4-1 71.21 52.27 87
32 [15] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 4-1 71.05 57.10 52
33 [4] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 2-2 69.37 69.23 8
34 [9] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 5-0 69.17 51.75 91
35 [16] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 2-3 68.88 64.42 27
36 [10] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 4-1 68.64 56.25 60
37 [5] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 5-0 68.60 45.46 132
38 [11] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 4-0 68.47 48.91 110
39 [17] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 5-0 68.32 51.43 95
40 [18] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 3-2 68.22 62.33 32
41 [19] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 3-2 67.87 60.91 39
42 [2] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 4-0 67.37 42.90 150
43 [6] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 4-0 67.24 44.74 140
44 [20] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-1 66.96 59.70 44
45 [21] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 4-1 66.90 52.92 80
46 [22] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 4-2 66.67 60.80 40
47 [23] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 2-3 65.32 66.48 15
48 [7] Rome 7 – AAAAA 2-2 64.70 61.25 38
49 [12] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 4-0 64.65 49.50 107
50 [24] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 3-1-1 64.38 56.69 55
51 [13] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 3-2 64.11 61.95 34
52 [8] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 4-1 63.95 42.51 158
53 [3] Callaway 5 – AA 5-0 63.65 44.48 141
54 [2] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 3-2 63.62 60.05 41
55 [14] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 3-2 63.03 59.16 47
56 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 5-0 62.85 31.73 247
57 [15] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 4-1 62.71 46.73 122
58 [5] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 4-2 62.62 50.25 102
59 [25] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 2-3 62.60 64.88 22
60 [16] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 1-4 62.49 68.78 10
61 [4] Brooks County 1 – AA 4-0 62.29 48.30 114
62 [6] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 4-1 62.11 45.53 131
63 [26] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 1-4 62.07 71.17 7
64 [27] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 2-2 61.14 63.17 30
65 [9] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 4-2 61.03 55.87 62
66 [7] Spalding 2 – AAAA 3-2 60.71 55.43 64
67 [3] Calhoun 6 – AAA 3-2 60.59 35.92 215
68 [10] Grady 6 – AAAAA 4-1 60.56 37.48 207
69 [11] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 3-2 60.19 55.23 66
70 [28] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 4-1 60.16 44.14 143
71 [4] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 4-1 60.03 42.95 149
72 [29] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 3-2 59.65 55.28 65
73 [5] Peach County 4 – AAA 4-1 59.48 50.85 100
74 [17] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 4-1 59.45 51.07 97
75 [18] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 2-2 58.74 53.49 76
76 [30] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 2-3 58.63 59.56 45
77 [8] Marist 7 – AAAA 3-2 58.16 51.54 94
78 [19] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 3-3 58.15 58.42 49
79 [20] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 1-4 58.05 66.85 14
80 [9] Cairo 1 – AAAA 4-1 57.85 46.20 124
81 [21] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 2-3 57.66 56.38 57
82 [31] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 1-4 57.61 72.09 6
83 [5] Rabun County 8 – AA 3-0 57.44 41.17 178
84 [22] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 3-2 57.43 57.33 50
85 [32] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 2-3 57.42 59.74 43
86 [6] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 3-2 57.31 51.66 92
87 [23] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 3-2 56.60 49.86 106
88 [24] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 3-2 56.27 48.73 111
89 [12] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 4-1 56.05 42.09 164
90 [10] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 3-2 55.77 42.55 156
91 [7] Lovett 5 – AAA 3-2 55.62 48.38 113
92 [11] Burke County 3 – AAAA 4-1 55.48 41.28 174
93 [13] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 4-1 55.32 35.87 216
94 [25] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 2-2 55.32 52.70 83
95 [26] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 3-2 55.13 52.28 86
96 [33] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 2-3 54.89 56.72 54
97 [27] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 2-2 54.49 54.17 72
98 [14] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 4-1 54.31 37.79 203
99 [6] Jefferson County 4 – AA 5-0 54.18 28.77 279
100 [12] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 4-1 53.89 41.62 167
101 [15] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 1-3 52.98 54.36 70
102 [13] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 4-0 52.94 39.15 191
103 [14] Eastside 4 – AAAA 3-1-1 52.82 49.27 108
104 [34] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 2-3 52.79 53.87 73
105 [35] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 1-4 52.78 65.25 20
106 [16] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 2-3 52.65 54.38 69
107 [36] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 2-3 52.32 51.65 93
108 [1] Macon County 4 – A 3-1 52.20 39.95 185
109 [15] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 4-1 52.17 39.79 188
110 [8] Liberty County 2 – AAA 4-0 51.92 28.65 280
111 [17] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 2-2 51.91 45.75 130
112 [7] Model 7 – AA 5-0 51.52 29.39 274
113 [16] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-5 51.40 65.83 17
114 [2] Clinch County 2 – A 4-1 51.35 30.98 255
115 [18] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 4-1 51.21 30.35 264
116 [37] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 3-2 51.20 52.45 85
117 [28] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 4-0 50.95 37.58 205
118 [19] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 2-3 50.71 59.80 42
119 [38] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 0-5 50.66 66.89 13
120 [2] Wesleyan 5 – A 5-0 50.66 26.90 294
121 [9] Crisp County 1 – AAA 5-0 50.53 32.97 240
122 [3] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 5-0 50.43 19.96 342
123 [29] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 4-1 50.21 33.87 231
124 [20] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 1-4 49.85 61.87 35
125 [4] Darlington 6 – A 4-1 48.79 40.02 184
126 [30] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 1-3 48.79 55.69 63
127 [3] Manchester 4 – A 5-0 48.57 26.75 296
128 [21] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 3-2 48.50 42.79 153
129 [22] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 4-1 48.40 39.39 190
130 [10] Cook 1 – AAA 2-3 48.36 52.08 88
131 [23] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 0-4 48.08 64.73 24
132 [31] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 2-3 48.01 50.11 104
133 [24] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 3-2 47.96 44.98 137
134 [5] Calvary Day 3 – A 4-0 47.75 2.21 413
135 [17] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 2-3 47.74 56.16 61
136 [25] Cass 7 – AAAAA 3-2 47.47 42.65 154
137 [11] Pierce County 2 – AAA 3-2 47.45 36.41 213
138 [18] Troup 5 – AAAA 4-1 47.18 37.09 210
139 [19] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 3-2 47.18 39.85 187
140 [20] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 3-2 46.80 41.83 166
141 [21] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 2-3 46.55 41.53 168
142 [26] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 3-2 46.47 42.21 163
143 [6] Landmark Christian 5 – A 5-0 46.42 24.08 320
144 [32] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 1-4 46.17 54.50 68
145 [12] Monroe 1 – AAA 2-2 46.08 46.19 125
146 [8] Washington County 3 – AA 2-2 45.93 48.06 115
147 [27] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 3-3 45.53 45.96 128
148 [22] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 3-1 45.52 47.20 118
149 [9] Elbert County 8 – AA 3-1-1 45.35 31.40 249
150 [33] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 1-4 44.94 52.92 81
151 [10] Vidalia 2 – AA 3-2 44.72 42.86 151
152 [13] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 2-3 44.65 43.54 147
153 [28] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 2-3 44.47 50.86 99
154 [14] Appling County 2 – AAA 3-1 43.98 38.49 198
155 [23] Madison County 8 – AAAA 5-0 43.90 26.76 295
156 [24] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 2-3 43.67 45.11 134
157 [29] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 2-3 43.39 50.14 103
158 [34] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 3-2 43.24 31.08 253
159 [30] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 3-2 43.17 38.95 194
160 [11] Heard County 5 – AA 5-1 43.01 25.05 314
161 [31] Ola 4 – AAAAA 2-2 42.49 48.62 112
162 [15] Hart County 8 – AAA 0-4-1 42.45 56.33 59
163 [39] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-3 42.44 43.58 146
164 [12] Screven County 4 – AA 4-1 42.43 28.21 284
165 [35] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 3-2 42.43 37.48 206
166 [25] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 3-2 42.31 35.04 223
167 [4] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 5-0 42.04 10.41 392
168 [16] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 3-2 41.89 42.54 157
169 [7] Stratford Academy 7 – A 3-1 41.87 31.21 250
170 [17] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 5-0 41.67 24.94 315
171 [13] Thomasville 1 – AA 1-3 41.52 51.89 90
172 [36] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 2-3 41.42 45.90 129
173 [40] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 3-2 41.30 35.23 220
174 [32] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 2-1-1 41.24 38.42 200
175 [26] West Hall 7 – AAAA 4-2 41.22 32.81 241
176 [33] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 3-2 40.94 35.60 217
177 [8] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 3-1 40.89 25.90 305
178 [37] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 0-5 40.85 59.47 46
179 [5] Irwin County 2 – A 2-3 40.79 44.82 139
180 [18] Worth County 1 – AAA 2-3 40.74 40.87 179
181 [38] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-5 40.68 61.48 37
182 [9] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 3-1 40.50 33.02 238
183 [27] Luella 4 – AAAA 2-3 40.50 47.78 116
184 [28] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 2-2-1 40.46 41.38 172
185 [10] Aquinas 7 – A 2-2 40.45 38.66 197
186 [14] Dublin 3 – AA 5-0 40.33 22.14 330
187 [19] Jackson 4 – AAA 3-2 40.28 28.16 285
188 [20] North Hall 7 – AAA 4-1 39.93 30.64 259
189 [39] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 4-1 39.86 31.99 245
190 [21] Jenkins 3 – AAA 4-1 39.83 25.85 306
191 [40] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-3 39.82 47.19 119
192 [34] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 2-3 39.80 40.69 181
193 [35] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 2-3 39.69 39.41 189
194 [41] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-4 39.49 62.80 31
195 [11] First Presbyterian 7 – A 4-0 39.48 24.76 316
196 [42] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 0-5 39.42 65.33 19
197 [29] Westover 1 – AAAA 3-2 39.38 33.34 235
198 [41] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 4-1 39.11 29.69 270
199 [12] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 4-0 38.73 21.80 334
200 [13] Savannah Christian 3 – A 3-1 38.71 25.65 308
201 [6] Bowdon 6 – A 3-2 38.54 33.50 233
202 [43] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 1-4 38.26 57.11 51
203 [36] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 0-5 38.24 53.41 77
204 [44] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 0-4 38.15 56.34 58
205 [30] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 2-3 38.05 45.22 133
206 [31] Pickens 6 – AAAA 1-3 37.97 41.39 171
207 [42] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 3-1 37.95 29.17 275
208 [22] Dawson County 7 – AAA 2-1 37.94 32.14 242
209 [45] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 0-4 37.94 53.39 78
210 [15] Lamar County 5 – AA 3-2 37.89 35.25 219
211 [23] Adairsville 6 – AAA 2-3 37.77 41.37 173
212 [46] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 3-2 37.66 34.79 225
213 [32] Salem 4 – AAAA 3-2 37.60 34.36 228
214 [37] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 3-2 37.60 34.37 227
215 [16] Pepperell 7 – AA 3-1 37.46 22.25 329
216 [33] Columbus 1 – AAAA 2-3 36.62 40.73 180
217 [38] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 3-2 36.57 33.12 237
218 [39] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 3-2 36.53 33.68 232
219 [34] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 3-2 36.50 31.76 246
220 [24] Morgan County 8 – AAA 3-2 36.47 30.55 260
221 [17] Spencer 5 – AA 3-2 36.43 35.14 222
222 [7] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 3-1 36.38 28.64 281
223 [18] Southwest 3 – AA 2-3 36.38 46.29 123
224 [8] Lincoln County 7 – A 2-1-1 36.32 37.75 204
225 [19] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 2-3 35.80 54.76 67
226 [14] Tattnall Square 7 – A 4-0 35.76 11.68 385
227 [43] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 2-3 35.72 41.27 175
228 [20] Dodge County 3 – AA 1-4 35.67 41.44 169
229 [40] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-5 35.52 49.91 105
230 [15] Athens Academy 8 – A 4-0 35.38 11.65 387
231 [9] Twiggs County 7 – A 3-1 35.15 26.32 299
232 [41] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 2-3 34.98 36.87 211
233 [16] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 3-1 34.77 19.75 343
234 [10] Dooly County 4 – A 2-3 34.30 38.93 195
235 [35] Perry 2 – AAAA 1-3 34.28 44.34 142
236 [25] Redan 5 – AAA 1-4 34.00 51.91 89
237 [21] Laney 4 – AA 0-5 33.90 49.18 109
238 [11] Turner County 2 – A 3-2 33.88 32.01 244
239 [12] Commerce 8 – A 3-1 33.81 15.03 372
240 [13] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 4-0 33.79 3.46 411
241 [47] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 2-3 33.62 37.47 208
242 [48] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-4 33.40 46.79 121
243 [49] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 4-1 32.75 24.44 318
244 [26] Pike County 4 – AAA 3-1 32.69 26.10 301
245 [27] Bremen 6 – AAA 3-2 32.64 25.48 310
246 [17] Athens Christian 8 – A 2-2 32.55 33.41 234
247 [42] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 1-4 32.52 42.62 155
248 [50] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 2-3 32.40 41.26 177
249 [36] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 2-3 32.26 38.68 196
250 [28] Union County 7 – AAA 4-1 32.18 26.00 303
251 [51] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 5-0 32.03 15.12 371
252 [29] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 1-3 31.87 44.99 136
253 [22] Toombs County 2 – AA 4-1 31.66 22.39 326
254 [37] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 3-2 31.38 31.07 254
255 [43] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-5 30.68 52.98 79
256 [14] Marion County 4 – A 3-2 30.60 19.42 347
257 [30] Ringgold 6 – AAA 2-3 30.45 34.12 230
258 [44] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-2 30.07 25.99 304
259 [38] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-4 30.04 42.47 159
260 [31] Franklin County 8 – AAA 1-4 30.00 42.43 160
261 [23] Washington 6 – AA 2-3 29.69 37.93 202
262 [39] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-5 29.56 41.26 176
263 [44] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 2-3 29.51 25.08 312
264 [40] Howard 2 – AAAA 1-4 29.34 39.06 192
265 [15] Charlton County 2 – A 1-3 29.22 30.23 265
266 [52] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 2-2 29.20 33.01 239
267 [41] White County 7 – AAAA 1-4 28.62 40.62 182
268 [24] Rockmart 7 – AA 4-1 28.39 16.04 365
269 [42] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 3-3 28.29 31.51 248
270 [32] Brantley County 2 – AAA 3-1 28.27 20.59 338
271 [16] Mitchell County 1 – A 5-0 28.24 6.81 401
272 [43] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 4-1 28.07 8.99 394
273 [25] Berrien 1 – AA 3-2 28.00 27.47 289
274 [26] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 1-5 27.83 42.85 152
275 [27] Douglass 6 – AA 2-2 27.81 25.83 307
276 [53] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-2 27.66 30.69 258
277 [17] Greene County 7 – A 3-1 27.39 24.72 317
278 [28] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 4-1 27.17 16.31 362
279 [45] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 2-2 27.02 28.90 277
280 [18] Brookstone 4 – A 2-2 26.92 27.23 291
281 [29] Chattooga 7 – AA 3-2 26.62 23.95 321
282 [18] Trion 6 – A 3-2 26.33 18.09 354
283 [45] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 1-4 26.32 45.96 127
284 [33] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 2-2 25.84 28.31 282
285 [46] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 1-4 25.78 42.07 165
286 [19] Gordon Lee 6 – A 4-1 25.27 11.19 389
287 [47] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-4 25.02 35.27 218
288 [54] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-4 24.89 37.43 209
289 [20] Warren County 7 – A 3-1 24.83 21.99 331
290 [34] East Hall 7 – AAA 2-3 24.45 23.66 323
291 [44] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 2-3 24.21 26.05 302
292 [30] Therrell 6 – AA 2-3 24.03 30.06 268
293 [48] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 0-4-1 23.94 44.88 138
294 [21] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 0-4 23.90 44.00 145
295 [35] North Murray 6 – AAA 3-2 23.78 18.82 351
296 [22] Taylor County 4 – A 3-1 23.68 13.29 378
297 [19] Holy Innocents 5 – A 1-4 23.64 40.53 183
298 [31] Bryan County 2 – AA 2-2 23.62 24.29 319
299 [23] Hancock Central 7 – A 3-1 23.61 14.65 373
300 [45] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-5 23.60 39.91 186
301 [36] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 2-2 23.22 15.53 369
302 [20] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 2-3 23.15 36.78 212
303 [32] Early County 1 – AA 0-4-1 23.13 34.35 229
304 [49] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 1-4 22.98 38.10 201
305 [46] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-5 22.95 54.26 71
306 [46] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-4 22.76 46.15 126
307 [21] George Walton Academy 8 – A 3-1 22.75 8.04 399
308 [24] Johnson County 3 – A 4-1 22.65 8.40 398
309 [55] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 1-2-1 22.64 26.56 298
310 [22] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 3-1 22.63 14.43 374
311 [47] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 2-2 22.12 18.99 349
312 [33] Swainsboro 2 – AA 0-5 22.11 42.24 162
313 [25] Telfair County 2 – A 1-3 21.72 31.16 252
314 [34] Bacon County 2 – AA 1-3 21.44 30.49 261
315 [26] Pelham 1 – A 4-1 21.38 4.33 406
316 [37] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-5 21.15 38.44 199
317 [27] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 4-0 21.12 -4.96 418
318 [50] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-4 20.99 33.16 236
319 [28] Atkinson County 2 – A 2-3 20.80 26.75 297
320 [56] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 2-2-1 20.76 23.55 324
321 [38] Rutland 4 – AAA 1-4 20.63 34.97 224
322 [39] Dougherty 1 – AAA 1-3 20.48 30.86 256
323 [35] Metter 2 – AA 1-3 20.36 26.91 293
324 [36] Northeast 3 – AA 1-4 20.30 29.41 273
325 [40] Murray County 6 – AAA 3-2 19.83 18.75 352
326 [41] Jackson County 8 – AAA 1-4 19.58 30.40 263
327 [29] Crawford County 4 – A 3-0 19.43 5.01 405
328 [48] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 4-1 19.27 2.75 412
329 [23] Mount de Sales 7 – A 2-2 19.18 22.34 327
330 [51] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-5 19.15 45.05 135
331 [49] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 3-2 19.06 12.96 381
332 [47] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-5 18.99 47.03 120
333 [52] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-4 18.86 44.12 144
334 [30] Hawkinsville 4 – A 3-2 18.24 15.77 366
335 [42] Savannah 3 – AAA 4-1 18.07 5.83 404
336 [43] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-3 17.64 28.04 286
337 [37] South Atlanta 6 – AA 2-4 17.41 27.40 290
338 [31] Jenkins County 3 – A 3-1 17.04 7.31 400
339 [38] Banks County 8 – AA 2-3 16.73 19.71 344
340 [24] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 4-1 16.59 3.50 410
341 [39] Jordan 5 – AA 0-5 16.41 39.05 193
342 [32] Terrell County 1 – A 2-3 16.25 20.49 339
343 [40] Putnam County 8 – AA 0-5 16.24 31.17 251
344 [53] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 1-4-1 16.17 30.42 262
345 [54] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-5 16.01 42.26 161
346 [41] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 1-3 15.90 22.70 325
347 [44] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 1-4 15.39 28.89 278
348 [48] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 0-5 15.38 34.56 226
349 [45] Towers 5 – AAA 1-4 15.09 26.31 300
350 [33] Wilkinson County 7 – A 0-4 14.88 29.13 276
351 [25] Walker 6 – A 1-4 14.77 27.16 292
352 [42] Dade County 7 – AA 1-4 14.74 32.01 243
353 [34] Seminole County 1 – A 2-2-1 14.72 11.67 386
354 [43] Butler 4 – AA 2-3 14.34 20.10 341
355 [35] Miller County 1 – A 2-2 13.96 15.62 368
356 [55] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-4 13.91 35.15 221
357 [46] Long County 2 – AAA 1-1-2 13.70 12.64 383
358 [50] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-5 13.59 30.14 267
359 [26] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 3-1 13.42 4.10 407
360 [44] Coosa 7 – AA 1-4 12.14 25.24 311
361 [45] Temple 5 – AA 4-1 11.74 3.59 409
362 [46] Harlem 4 – AA 2-3 11.16 13.78 377
363 [47] Monticello 8 – AA 0-5 10.62 30.19 266
364 [47] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 3-1 10.57 8.66 397
365 [48] East Laurens 3 – AA 1-4 10.47 27.62 288
366 [36] Treutlen 3 – A 2-3 10.47 16.10 364
367 [37] Schley County 4 – A 2-3 10.10 16.56 361
368 [27] Christian Heritage 6 – A 0-4 9.72 21.81 333
369 [49] Josey 4 – AA 2-3 9.50 11.84 384
370 [57] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-6 9.50 41.41 170
371 [48] McNair 5 – AAA 3-2 9.26 -0.13 415
372 [50] Albany 1 – AA 0-5 9.22 30.75 257
373 [38] Wilcox County 2 – A 1-4 8.67 21.97 332
374 [51] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 2-3 8.46 11.65 388
375 [28] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 2-3 8.16 21.13 337
376 [49] East Jackson 8 – AAA 2-2 8.04 9.57 393
377 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 1-5 7.86 29.46 272
378 [51] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 2-3 7.72 14.02 375
379 [29] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 2-2 7.35 3.87 408
380 [52] Bleckley County 3 – AA 1-4 7.26 19.46 346
381 [39] Greenville 4 – A 0-5 6.41 36.37 214
382 [40] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 1-3 5.80 17.50 357
383 [30] Pacelli 4 – A 1-4 4.62 21.16 336
384 [41] Lanier County 2 – A 1-4 4.60 16.61 360
385 [42] Towns County 8 – A 2-3 4.21 27.76 287
386 [43] Wheeler County 3 – A 4-1 4.12 -7.40 420
387 [31] St. Francis 6 – A 1-3 3.90 18.34 353
388 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 3-2 3.45 -0.42 416
389 [53] Social Circle 8 – AA 2-3 3.13 11.06 390
390 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-5 2.40 25.55 309
391 [50] Beach 3 – AAA 0-5 2.19 23.90 322
392 [51] Haralson County 6 – AAA 1-3 2.17 15.41 370
393 [52] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-4 1.70 29.95 269
394 [44] Claxton 3 – A 0-4 1.16 25.06 313
395 [53] Groves 3 – AAA 1-4 0.89 13.11 380
396 [54] Islands 3 – AAA 1-4 0.77 20.28 340
397 [54] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-4 -0.29 17.34 358
398 [32] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 1-3 -0.58 18.95 350
399 [45] Portal 3 – A 0-4 -1.65 16.62 359
400 [33] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 1-3 -1.83 17.68 355
401 [34] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 1-4 -3.63 13.93 376
402 [35] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-5 -4.23 17.64 356
403 [55] Armuchee 7 – AA 1-4 -5.09 15.72 367
404 [55] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-4 -6.10 29.65 271
405 [46] Calhoun County 1 – A 1-3 -6.65 10.67 391
406 [47] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 0-4 -6.96 13.15 379
407 [52] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-5 -7.35 12.70 382
408 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-4 -7.36 6.35 402
409 [48] Montgomery County 3 – A 0-5 -7.99 21.46 335
410 [56] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-5 -10.22 28.30 283
411 [49] Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-3 -13.11 6.06 403
412 [36] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-3 -14.95 -4.00 417
413 [57] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-5 -16.36 22.31 345
414 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 0-6 -16.90 19.66 348
415 [57] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 0-5 -18.47 19.07 395
416 [50] Stewart County 1 – A 1-4 -21.20 8.99 419
417 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 1-4 -26.36 -5.23 363
418 [51] Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-5 -26.53 16.22 396
419 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-1 -27.56 8.80 414
420 [3] Webster County 1 – A† 0-0 -38.09 0.00 421
421 [4] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 0-2 -48.15 -20.19 0

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 4 – AAAAAAA 90.14 70.39
2 1 – AAAAAA 90.11 75.15
3 1 – AAAAAAA 89.37 72.71
4 8 – AAAAAAA 86.43 65.90
5 3 – AAAAAAA 82.56 64.02
6 6 – AAAAAAA 81.91 58.06
7 7 – AAAAAAA 79.55 54.03
8 5 – AAAAAA 75.97 58.14
9 5 – AAAA 74.07 49.60
10 5 – AAAAAAA 73.47 57.19
11 2 – AAAAAA 71.33 53.05
12 2 – AAAAAAA 70.78 52.91
13 7 – AAAAA 70.56 51.82
14 6 – AAAAAA 70.48 53.13
15 4 – AAAAA 68.56 48.83
16 8 – AAAAA 66.06 41.04
17 1 – AAAAA 65.95 51.06
18 4 – AAAAAA 65.73 48.43
19 8 – AAAAAA 65.49 47.60
20 8 – AAAA 65.24 48.95
21 5 – AAA 63.94 39.60
22 1 – AA 63.74 37.51
23 7 – AAAA 63.55 43.38
24 2 – AAAA 62.91 45.87
25 3 – AAAAA 62.54 43.66
26 7 – AAAAAA 61.55 43.31
27 3 – AAAA 61.06 30.74
28 4 – AAAA 60.11 38.43
29 2 – AAAAA 59.14 36.01
30 1 – AAA 58.06 42.28
31 1 – AAAA 56.93 41.05
32 5 – AA 55.87 34.66
33 6 – AAAAA 55.47 35.03
34 4 – AAA 55.32 37.07
35 7 – AAA 54.92 33.40
36 2 – AAA 53.89 35.11
37 5 – A 53.59 26.81
38 2 – AA 51.29 28.41
39 3 – AAAAAA 51.26 36.81
40 6 – AAAA 49.24 28.83
41 5 – AAAAA 48.73 35.77
42 3 – AA 47.23 28.75
43 6 – AAA 46.76 24.21
6 – South – AAA 56.69 36.70
6 – North – AAA 32.24 11.34
44 2 – A 45.84 26.23
45 8 – AA 45.79 17.27
46 6 – A 44.85 24.81
6 – Div A – A 45.84 26.61
6 – Div B – A 43.97 22.95
47 4 – AA 44.20 19.41
48 7 – A 44.15 30.34
7 – Div A – A 47.80 31.57
7 – Div B – A 40.70 29.25
49 8 – AAA 43.24 25.29
50 4 – A 43.13 21.89
4 – Div B – A 45.00 25.07
4 – Div A – A 41.05 17.60
51 7 – AA 42.14 19.60
52 6 – AA 41.74 27.14
53 3 – A 41.63 19.10
3 – Div A – A 46.70 25.64
3 – Div B – A 34.58 14.05
54 8 – A 40.66 17.38
55 3 – AAA 32.48 10.80
56 1 – A 25.03 9.55

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/16 Salem Chamblee 0 – 6 17.06 84.6% 0.225
08/26 Cedar Grove Southwest DeKalb 20 – 21 14.37 80.8% 0.289
09/02 West Laurens Dodge County 0 – 3 11.96 76.8% 0.316
08/26 Woodward Academy Grady 10 – 14 10.20 73.5% 0.341
09/16 North Hall White County 23 – 24 10.86 74.8% 0.344
08/26 Westside (Macon) Southwest 3 – 8 8.72 70.5% 0.362
09/03 Colquitt County Tucker 20 – 21 9.63 72.4% 0.364
08/26 Morgan County Greene County 12 – 13 9.53 72.2% 0.365
09/16 Fayette County Pike County 8 – 11 9.00 71.1% 0.365
08/26 West Forsyth Pace Academy 10 – 20 7.37 67.6% 0.370
08/26 Dutchtown Ola 19 – 20 8.96 71.0% 0.374
08/19 Jonesboro Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 7 – 9 7.47 67.9% 0.394
09/09 North Clayton Maynard Jackson 6 – 16 6.05 64.7% 0.394
08/19 South Forsyth Hillgrove 14 – 27 5.62 63.7% 0.396
08/18 Towers Forest Park 2 – 6 6.78 66.3% 0.398

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
89.01 09/09 Roswell Colquitt County 34 – 3 12.37 77.5%
88.79 08/20 Mill Creek Colquitt County 34 – 27 6.38 65.4%
88.65 08/19 Roswell Buford 24 – 7 12.50 77.7%
87.17 09/02 Grayson McEachern 16 – 13 6.94 66.7%
83.79 09/23 Colquitt County Valdosta 45 – 24 4.27 60.5%
81.58 10/07 Valdosta Northside (Warner Robins) – 0.99 52.5%
79.79 09/03 Colquitt County Tucker 20 – 21 9.63 72.4%
78.76 10/28 Colquitt County Lowndes – 10.71 74.5%
78.23 08/19 Valdosta Lowndes 38 – 13 5.99 64.5%
77.62 08/20 McEachern Archer 27 – 14 9.63 72.4%
77.49 09/09 Mill Creek Archer 31 – 10 17.51 85.2%
77.42 09/16 Norcross Archer 35 – 16 10.15 73.4%
77.25 10/21 Valdosta Lee County – 6.64 66.0%
77.24 10/07 Roswell Lassiter – 23.08 91.0%
77.04 10/14 Grayson Archer – 17.47 85.2%

No Replies to "Maxwell Week 6 Summary: Toughest regular season schedules; each team’s chance of going undefeated"

    Got something to say?