Maxwell Week 6 Projections

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

Each game is listed showing the game rate, favorite, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, the projected margin, and the opponent.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.

Sep 22

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
41.35 AAAAA Riverdale 71.1% 9 McIntosh AAAAA
40.21 AAAA Carver (Columbus) 84.6% 17 Westover AAAA
37.42 AAAA Americus-Sumter 70.1% 9 Northside (Columbus) AAAA
34.17 AAAA Cairo 94.3% 28 Shaw AAAA
6.80 AAA Windsor Forest 64.0% 6 Groves AAA
-6.42 A – Public Chattahoochee County 84.7% 17 Baconton Charter A – Public

Sep 23

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
85.76 AAAAAA Valdosta 59.7% 4 Colquitt County AAAAAAA
79.54 AAAAAAA Roswell 87.6% 20 Archer AAAAAAA
71.53 AAAAAAA Lassiter 54.4% 2 South Forsyth AAAAAAA
70.29 AAAAAA Harrison 58.2% 4 Allatoona AAAAAA
68.50 AAAAAAA McEachern 87.4% 19 Camden County AAAAAAA
68.44 AAAAAA Lee County 70.8% 9 Thomas County Central AAAAA
67.87 AAAAAAA South Gwinnett 62.5% 5 Hillgrove AAAAAAA
66.05 AAAAAA Coffee 62.9% 6 Tift County AAAAAAA
65.52 AAAAAAA North Gwinnett 72.9% 10 Mountain View AAAAAAA
65.03 AAAAAAA Walton 58.1% 4 Dacula AAAAAA
63.75 AAAAAA Houston County 78.0% 13 Spalding AAAA
63.74 AAAAAAA West Forsyth 67.3% 7 Newnan AAAAAAA
62.92 AAA Cedar Grove 53.1% 2 Westminster (Atlanta) AAA
62.41 AAAAAAA Norcross 92.1% 24 Central Gwinnett AAAAAAA
62.28 AAAAAAA North Paulding 67.5% 8 Cherokee AAAAAAA
61.53 AAAAAAA East Coweta 71.2% 9 Arabia Mountain AAAAA
61.01 AAAAAA Douglas County 56.2% 3 Hughes AAAAAA
60.49 AAAAAA Lanier 55.7% 3 St. Pius X AAAA
59.70 AAAA Jefferson 62.9% 6 Gainesville AAAAAA
55.91 AAAA Burke County 74.0% 11 Effingham County AAAAAA
55.81 AAAAAAA Wheeler 51.6% 1 Lambert AAAAAAA
55.48 AAAAAA Creekside 78.8% 13 Tri-Cities AAAAAA
55.41 AAAAAAA Woodstock 59.3% 4 North Forsyth AAAAAAA
55.11 AAAAA Rome 73.6% 10 Paulding County AAAAA
54.07 AAAAAAA Mill Creek 98.2% 37 Collins Hill AAAAAAA
53.51 AAAA Oconee County 61.3% 5 Eastside AAAA
52.82 AAAAAA Centennial 65.6% 7 Cambridge AAAAAA
52.36 AA Callaway 78.5% 13 Harris County AAAAA
51.46 AA Brooks County 78.1% 13 Monroe AAA
51.13 AAAA West Laurens 60.2% 4 Warner Robins AAAAA
50.85 AAAA Stephens County 59.1% 4 Hart County AAA
50.76 AA Benedictine 94.1% 27 Vidalia AA
50.52 AAAAAA Lovejoy 76.8% 12 Drew AAAAAA
50.35 AAA Peach County 77.1% 12 Westside (Macon) AAA
50.06 AAAAAA Stephenson 80.0% 14 Mundy’s Mill AAAAAA
49.92 AAAAA Kell 91.1% 23 Cass AAAAA
49.02 AAAAA Jones County 83.5% 16 Eagle’s Landing AAAAA
47.86 AAAA Ridgeland 65.1% 6 Northwest Whitfield AAAA
47.19 AAAAA Villa Rica 54.0% 2 Hiram AAAAA
47.14 AA Thomasville 61.1% 5 Cook AAA
46.59 AAAAAA Richmond Hill 61.2% 5 Lakeside (Evans) AAAAAA
46.28 AA Rabun County 78.9% 13 West Hall AAAA
45.83 AAAA Troup 57.3% 3 Chapel Hill AAAA
45.05 AAAAA Wayne County 50.5% 1 Pierce County AAA
45.03 AAAAAA Northgate 94.4% 28 South Paulding AAAAAA
44.72 AAAAAAA North Cobb 95.0% 29 Pebblebrook AAAAAAA
44.56 AAAAA Clarke Central 65.2% 7 Cedar Shoals AAAAA
44.13 A – Private Darlington 63.0% 6 Bowdon A – Public
43.74 AAAAA Griffin 93.2% 26 Whitewater AAAAA
43.45 AAAAAA Tucker 96.7% 33 M.L. King AAAAAA
42.33 AAAAAA Alexander 94.9% 29 New Manchester AAAAAA
42.32 AAAA Cartersville 98.8% 39 Cedartown AAAA
42.31 AAAAAA Johns Creek 86.0% 18 Northview AAAAAA
41.56 AAAA Hardaway 65.2% 7 Columbus AAAA
41.15 A – Public Lincoln County 57.2% 3 Stratford Academy A – Private
41.05 AAAAAAA Newton 93.9% 27 Heritage (Conyers) AAAAAA
41.01 AAAAAAA Forsyth Central 62.3% 5 Kennesaw Mountain AAAAAAA
40.99 AAA Crisp County 79.9% 14 Spencer AA
40.79 AAAAAA Sprayberry 75.8% 12 South Cobb AAAAAA
40.76 AAAA Woodward Academy 96.4% 32 Salem AAAA
40.57 AAA Appling County 73.7% 11 Statesboro AAAAA
40.21 AA Screven County 59.6% 4 Laney AA
39.54 A – Public Manchester 69.8% 9 Marion County A – Public
39.32 AAAAA Veterans 75.7% 12 Perry AAAA
39.31 AAAAAA Evans 70.0% 9 Baldwin AAAA
39.18 A – Private Pinecrest Academy 51.8% 1 Mount Pisgah Christian A – Private
37.45 AAA Pace Academy 92.6% 25 Redan AAA
37.34 AA Lamar County 73.0% 10 Morgan County AAA
36.83 AAA Jenkins 65.6% 7 Southeast Bulloch AAA
36.48 AAAAAA Brunswick 91.1% 23 South Effingham AAAAA
36.09 AAA Sonoraville 66.6% 7 Ringgold AAA
35.72 AAAA LaGrange 82.9% 16 Central (Carrollton) AAAA
34.74 AA Dodge County 74.4% 11 Southwest AA
34.66 AAAA Madison County 79.8% 14 Franklin County AAA
34.65 AAAAAAA Westlake 96.3% 31 Lithonia AAAAA
34.65 AAA Dawson County 57.7% 3 White County AAAA
34.33 AAAAAA Habersham Central 68.4% 8 Chestatee AAAA
34.12 AAAAAA Chattahoochee 57.3% 3 Dunwoody AAAAAA
33.88 A – Public Charlton County 51.2% 1 Turner County A – Public
33.45 AAA Greater Atlanta Christian 98.5% 38 Union County AAA
33.34 AAAAA Banneker 57.2% 3 Maynard Jackson AAAAA
33.10 AAAAAAA Lowndes 99.1% 39 Mount Zion (Jonesboro) AAAAAA
32.57 A – Public Commerce 76.5% 12 Athens Christian A – Private
32.51 AAAAA Southwest DeKalb 88.9% 21 Rockdale County AAAAAAA
30.36 AA B.E.S.T. Academy 62.1% 5 Washington AA
30.08 A – Public Washington-Wilkes 51.8% 1 Tattnall Square A – Private
29.99 AAAAAA Winder-Barrow 82.8% 16 North Oconee AAAA
29.92 AAAA North Clayton 61.4% 5 Druid Hills AAAA
29.90 AAAAAA Pope 70.7% 9 North Atlanta AAAAAA
29.50 AA Early County 61.5% 5 Berrien AA
28.47 A – Private Wesleyan 92.4% 25 Holy Innocents A – Private
28.41 AAAAA Grady 96.7% 32 Decatur AAAAA
27.92 A – Public Macon County 93.6% 26 Taylor County A – Public
27.66 AAAAAAA Peachtree Ridge 98.5% 38 Discovery AAAAAAA
27.59 AAAAAAA Marietta 94.6% 28 Campbell AAAAAAA
27.09 AAAAA Carver (Atlanta) 97.2% 34 North Springs AAAAA
27.09 AAA East Hall 57.2% 3 Lumpkin County AAA
26.20 AAAAAA Grovetown 80.5% 14 Richmond Academy AAAA
25.93 AA Therrell 66.7% 7 K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate AA
25.92 AAAAA Loganville 95.4% 30 Walnut Grove AAAAA
25.64 AA Toombs County 64.6% 6 Bacon County AA
25.54 AAA Calhoun 98.1% 36 North Murray AAA
25.29 AAA Central (Macon) 85.8% 18 Kendrick AAA
25.00 A – Public Irwin County 86.3% 18 Telfair County A – Public
24.96 AAAAA Riverwood 84.9% 17 Lithia Springs AAAAA
24.79 AAA Jackson 88.7% 21 Rutland AAA
24.52 AAA Adairsville 84.9% 17 Murray County AAA
24.39 A – Private Prince Avenue Christian 94.9% 29 George Walton Academy A – Private
24.29 AAAA Marist 98.1% 36 Chamblee AAAAA
24.27 AA Swainsboro 66.0% 7 Bryan County AA
23.33 AAAAAA Greenbrier 74.8% 11 Cross Creek AAAA
23.15 A – Public Mitchell County 68.5% 8 Terrell County A – Public
22.60 AAA North Hall 89.5% 21 Fannin County AAA
22.15 AA Rockmart 64.3% 6 Dade County AA
21.35 AAAAAAA Lakeside (Atlanta) 89.5% 21 Meadowcreek AAAAAAA
20.80 AAAAAAA Brookwood 99.4% 40 Berkmar AAAAAAA
20.21 AAAA Heritage (Ringgold) 76.2% 12 Gilmer AAAA
20.20 AAAAAA Apalachee 56.4% 3 Monroe Area AAA
20.16 AA Hapeville Charter 86.2% 18 South Atlanta AA
20.05 A – Public Pelham 58.2% 4 Miller County A – Public
19.46 A – Public Hawkinsville 69.4% 8 Crawford County A – Public
18.81 AAAA Upson-Lee 95.4% 30 Jordan AA
18.55 AA Elbert County 96.1% 31 Putnam County AA
17.66 AAAAA Carrollton 99.4% 41 Woodland (Cartersville) AAAAA
17.34 A – Public Seminole County 70.0% 9 Randolph-Clay A – Public
17.30 AAAAA Locust Grove 97.4% 34 Hampton AAAAA
16.79 A – Public Gordon Lee 76.2% 12 Christian Heritage A – Private
16.31 A – Private Landmark Christian 96.1% 31 Mount Vernon Presbyterian A – Private
16.16 AA Northeast 65.6% 7 Bleckley County AA
16.01 AA Metter 83.0% 16 Jeff Davis AA
15.81 AA Banks County 59.2% 4 Monticello AA
15.80 AAA Lovett 98.9% 39 Towers AAA
15.80 AA Pepperell 91.5% 24 Coosa AA
15.75 A – Public Dooly County 91.4% 24 Schley County A – Public
15.72 AA Douglass 83.0% 16 Osborne AAAAAA
15.55 A – Public Emanuel County Institute 95.8% 30 Treutlen A – Public
14.86 A – Private Our Lady of Mercy 71.3% 9 Strong Rock Christian A – Private
14.17 AA Heard County 95.6% 30 Temple AA
13.83 AAAAA Starr’s Mill 98.6% 38 Morrow AAAAA
13.69 AAA Liberty County 98.3% 37 New Hampstead AAAAA
13.43 AAAA Southeast Whitfield 75.8% 12 LaFayette AAAA
13.34 AAAAAA Bradwell Institute 83.9% 17 Long County AAA
13.21 A – Private Brookstone 84.9% 17 Greenville A – Public
13.09 A – Public Clinch County 98.1% 36 Wilcox County A – Public
13.01 AA Harlem 54.5% 2 Butler AA
11.67 AA Dublin 96.0% 31 East Laurens AA
11.66 A – Private Walker 55.9% 3 St. Francis A – Private
10.06 A – Public Atkinson County 79.5% 14 Lanier County A – Public
8.66 AAA Savannah 76.7% 12 Beach AAA
7.12 AAAAAA Alcovy 95.5% 30 Forest Park AAAAAA
6.26 AA Josey 76.7% 12 Glenn Hills AA
5.85 A – Private Athens Academy 95.5% 30 Towns County A – Public
4.65 AAAAA Flowery Branch 97.8% 35 Johnson (Gainesville) AAAAA
4.05 A – Public Portal 55.6% 3 Wheeler County A – Public
2.76 AA Jefferson County 99.6% 41 Westside (Augusta) AA
1.90 A – Private Hebron Christian Academy 83.2% 16 Riverside Military Academy A – Private
-0.04 A – Public Trion 95.5% 30 North Cobb Christian A – Private
-0.58 AA Social Circle 62.3% 5 Oglethorpe County AA
-1.80 AA Model 99.5% 41 Armuchee AA
-3.20 AAA Johnson (Savannah) 78.4% 13 Islands AAA
-4.85 A – Private Pacelli 81.1% 15 Central (Talbotton) A – Public
-5.31 A – Public Hancock Central 96.0% 31 Hephzibah AAAA
-7.18 AAA Brantley County 97.8% 35 Montgomery County A – Public
-7.82 AAA Bremen 98.7% 38 Coahulla Creek AAA
-8.02 A – Private Lakeview Academy 71.0% 9 Providence Christian A – Private
-9.51 AAA Haralson County 80.9% 15 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe AAA
-12.24 AAAAA Columbia 99.4% 40 Clarkston AAAAA
-13.99 AA Chattooga 98.5% 38 Gordon Central AA
-16.39 A – Public Calhoun County 76.1% 12 Stewart County A – Public
-21.90 A – Private Eagle’s Landing Christian 100.0% 42 Fulton Leadership Academy A – Public
-38.93 A – Other Glascock County 83.0% 16 Pataula Charter A – Other

Sep 24

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
13.26 AAA Dougherty 74.7% 11 Albany AA
9.09 AAA McNair 55.3% 2 Stone Mountain AAA

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