Maxwell Week 3 Summary: Tucker upends Colquitt County to jump in AAAAAA

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia’s 421 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

– Tucker entered the weekend a 29-point underdog at perennial powerhouse Colquitt County and walked away with a 21-20 victory. This was the first victory for a Georgia team in Moultrie since 2012 and the first for a North Georgia team since 2005. Tucker’s rating jumped nearly 10 points to place them at third in AAAAAA.

– Although Colquitt County’s rating fell more than a touchdown, and nearly three touchdowns since the season opened, the program is hesitant to count the Packers out. In spite of their 0-3 start, they remain the two-time state champion for the highest classification and have only been outscored by a total of 11 points against some tough competition. Their game this weekend against last year’s runner up, Roswell, will give them an opportunity to redeem themselves or to suffer their worst start since the school became Coulquitt County in 1978. Their predecessor, Moultrie High School, went 0-4 to start the 1948 season.


As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 42.88%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 424 of 454 total games including 5 tie(s) (93.94%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.59 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.


Home Advantage: -0.15

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Mill Creek 3-0 93.99 1 Valdosta 3-0 83.63
2 Grayson 1-1 93.83 2 Dacula 1-1 76.32
3 Roswell 2-0 92.21 3 Tucker 2-1 75.03
4 McEachern 1-1 88.66 4 Lee County 2-0 74.67
5 Colquitt County 0-3 85.42 5 Mays 1-1 73.99
6 Archer 1-1 83.61 6 Northside (Warner Robins) 3-0 72.76
7 Norcross 2-0 77.36 7 Hughes 2-0 72.60
8 South Gwinnett 3-0 77.17 8 Houston County 3-0 71.38
9 Lowndes 2-1 76.10 9 Harrison 3-0 71.21
10 North Gwinnett 2-1 75.71 10 Glynn Academy 2-1 70.92
11 Camden County 0-2 74.68 11 Dalton 2-0 68.63
12 Brookwood 2-1 74.46 12 Creekside 2-0 68.36
13 Peachtree Ridge 1-2 74.16 13 Coffee 2-1 67.95
14 Parkview 2-1 70.72 14 Alexander 2-0 67.67
15 Westlake 1-1 69.93 15 Allatoona 0-3 67.39
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 1-1 84.49 1 Cartersville 2-0 84.24
2 Stockbridge 2-0 74.93 2 Sandy Creek 1-1 75.23
3 Ware County 1-1 71.64 3 Blessed Trinity 2-0 72.12
4 Kell 1-1 69.10 4 Woodward Academy 1-1 68.25
5 Carrollton 2-0 66.81 5 Thomson 3-0 67.91
6 Jones County 1-1 63.26 6 St. Pius X 0-2 64.66
7 Griffin 2-0 63.10 7 Marist 1-1 63.49
8 Rome 1-1 61.70 8 Jefferson 2-1 61.37
9 Grady 2-0 60.90 9 Burke County 3-0 58.76
10 Bainbridge 0-1 60.35 10 Mary Persons 2-1 58.49
11 Thomas County Central 3-0 58.81 11 Eastside 2-0-1 53.70
12 East Paulding 0-2 58.04 12 Spalding 1-1 53.48
13 Carver (Atlanta) 2-1 57.99 13 Oconee County 2-0 53.20
14 Woodland (Stockbridge) 2-1 55.57 14 Carver (Columbus) 1-2 53.01
15 Hiram 2-0 54.56 15 Cairo 1-1 52.59
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 2-0 72.38 1 Benedictine 2-0 76.84
2 Calhoun 1-2 63.15 2 Fitzgerald 1-0 65.55
3 Lovett 2-1 62.25 3 Brooks County 2-0 61.07
4 Cedar Grove 1-1 60.17 4 Callaway 2-0 58.46
5 Pace Academy 2-0 60.16 5 Jefferson County 2-0 55.93
6 Westminster (Atlanta) 1-2 59.14 6 Vidalia 2-0 55.47
7 Peach County 1-1 55.28 7 Elbert County 2-0-1 53.62
8 Hart County 0-1-1 53.69 8 Rabun County 1-0 53.34
9 Liberty County 2-0 52.91 9 Dodge County 1-1 51.64
10 Monroe 1-0 50.82 10 Model 2-0 46.73
11 Pierce County 2-0 48.74 11 Lamar County 2-0 45.91
12 Crisp County 3-0 47.60 12 Heard County 3-0 45.58
13 North Hall 2-0 45.32 13 Dublin 3-0 43.14
14 Cook 0-3 44.64 14 Pepperell 1-0 41.33
15 Worth County 1-2 43.66 15 Thomasville 0-2 40.52
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Clinch County 2-1 48.68 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 2-0 61.87
2 Macon County 1-0 48.23 2 Prince Avenue Christian 3-0 54.53
3 Irwin County 1-1 46.30 3 Wesleyan 2-0 49.38
4 Emanuel County Institute 3-0 44.81 4 Aquinas 1-1 47.47
5 Manchester 3-0 43.24 5 Landmark Christian 2-0 45.04
6 Marion County 2-0 42.50 6 Calvary Day 2-0 42.18
7 Commerce 2-0 41.68 7 Darlington 1-1 39.62
8 Lincoln County 2-0 41.43 8 Mount Pisgah Christian 2-0 38.65
9 Mount Zion (Carroll) 2-0 37.68 9 Mount Paran Christian 2-1 38.60
10 Trion 2-0 37.17 10 First Presbyterian 2-0 38.43
11 Bowdon 1-1 34.48 11 Savannah Christian 1-1 37.82
12 Charlton County 0-1 33.99 12 Stratford Academy 1-1 36.46
13 McIntosh County Academy 1-1 33.65 13 Pinecrest Academy 1-1 36.36
14 Seminole County 1-0-1 32.63 14 Fellowship Christian 2-0 35.55
15 Turner County 1-2 31.64 15 Athens Christian 1-1 31.67

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 3-0 93.99 74.84 12
2 [2] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 1-1 93.83 88.51 3
3 [3] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 2-0 92.21 74.53 15
4 [4] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 1-1 88.66 88.79 2
5 [5] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 0-3 85.42 84.59 4
6 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 1-1 84.49 92.21 1
7 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 2-0 84.24 65.27 40
8 [1] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 3-0 83.63 59.17 67
9 [6] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 1-1 83.61 81.33 6
10 [7] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 2-0 77.36 60.86 55
11 [8] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 3-0 77.17 66.95 31
12 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 2-0 76.84 67.79 27
13 [2] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 1-1 76.32 79.20 7
14 [9] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 2-1 76.10 77.02 10
15 [10] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 2-1 75.71 69.94 22
16 [2] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 1-1 75.23 67.24 30
17 [3] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 2-1 75.03 65.54 38
18 [2] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 2-0 74.93 67.41 28
19 [11] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 0-2 74.68 0.00 0
20 [4] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 2-0 74.67 61.73 52
21 [12] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 2-1 74.46 72.18 19
22 [13] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 1-2 74.16 78.95 8
23 [5] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 1-1 73.99 74.47 16
24 [6] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 3-0 72.76 40.52 187
25 [7] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 2-0 72.60 60.35 60
26 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 2-0 72.38 60.69 56
27 [3] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 2-0 72.12 57.88 73
28 [3] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 1-1 71.64 69.59 23
29 [8] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 3-0 71.38 52.98 98
30 [9] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 3-0 71.21 62.79 48
31 [10] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 2-1 70.92 74.09 17
32 [14] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 2-1 70.72 67.95 25
33 [15] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 1-1 69.93 66.20 36
34 [16] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 3-0 69.75 50.95 109
35 [17] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 1-1 69.66 70.17 21
36 [18] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 3-0 69.37 42.15 173
37 [4] Kell 7 – AAAAA 1-1 69.10 72.47 18
38 [11] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 2-0 68.63 55.45 86
39 [19] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 2-1 68.54 64.44 43
40 [20] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 2-0 68.52 43.10 165
41 [12] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 2-0 68.36 52.94 99
42 [4] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 1-1 68.25 59.86 63
43 [13] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 2-1 67.95 59.57 66
44 [5] Thomson 3 – AAAA 3-0 67.91 51.28 108
45 [14] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 2-0 67.67 62.69 49
46 [15] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 0-3 67.39 75.65 11
47 [21] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 2-1 66.84 47.69 129
48 [5] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 2-0 66.81 53.43 93
49 [16] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 2-0 66.77 50.36 110
50 [22] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 3-0 66.21 53.36 94
51 [23] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 2-1 65.71 63.03 47
52 [2] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 1-0 65.55 46.46 138
53 [6] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-2 64.66 74.64 14
54 [24] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 2-1 64.48 53.19 96
55 [25] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 0-3 64.40 81.63 5
56 [17] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 1-1 63.82 61.63 53
57 [7] Marist 7 – AAAA 1-1 63.49 62.41 50
58 [6] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 1-1 63.26 56.95 77
59 [26] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 1-2 63.25 66.15 37
60 [2] Calhoun 6 – AAA 1-2 63.15 64.67 42
61 [7] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 2-0 63.10 50.16 113
62 [3] Lovett 5 – AAA 2-1 62.25 58.13 71
63 [27] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 1-0-1 62.18 49.67 118
64 [18] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 1-1 62.08 59.68 65
65 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 2-0 61.87 42.58 171
66 [19] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 0-2 61.86 77.08 9
67 [8] Rome 7 – AAAAA 1-1 61.70 58.58 69
68 [8] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 2-1 61.37 46.87 133
69 [20] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 2-0 61.21 52.05 102
70 [3] Brooks County 1 – AA 2-0 61.07 46.66 135
71 [21] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 1-2 60.99 65.21 41
72 [9] Grady 6 – AAAAA 2-0 60.90 47.93 126
73 [28] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 1-1 60.86 60.63 57
74 [10] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 0-1 60.35 74.83 13
75 [4] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 1-1 60.17 57.48 75
76 [5] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 2-0 60.16 46.63 136
77 [29] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 1-1 60.08 58.97 68
78 [30] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 1-2 59.81 66.47 35
79 [31] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 3-0 59.32 31.12 259
80 [6] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 1-2 59.14 70.47 20
81 [11] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 3-0 58.81 45.49 144
82 [9] Burke County 3 – AAAA 3-0 58.76 38.68 201
83 [32] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 0-3 58.62 65.47 39
84 [10] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 2-1 58.49 45.77 142
85 [4] Callaway 5 – AA 2-0 58.46 46.70 134
86 [12] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 0-2 58.04 68.71 24
87 [33] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 1-1 57.99 57.16 76
88 [13] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 2-1 57.99 44.73 153
89 [22] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 2-1 57.55 49.50 119
90 [23] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 2-0 57.04 37.96 207
91 [24] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 1-1 56.49 56.30 80
92 [34] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 2-1 55.97 47.83 128
93 [5] Jefferson County 4 – AA 2-0 55.93 41.61 179
94 [14] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 2-1 55.57 44.95 149
95 [6] Vidalia 2 – AA 2-0 55.47 47.62 130
96 [7] Peach County 4 – AAA 1-1 55.28 59.74 64
97 [35] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 1-2 54.68 57.72 74
98 [15] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 2-0 54.56 46.36 139
99 [2] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 3-0 54.53 29.00 280
100 [16] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 0-2 54.44 63.82 45
101 [17] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 2-0 54.30 27.17 289
102 [36] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 1-1 54.16 49.96 115
103 [11] Eastside 4 – AAAA 2-0-1 53.70 44.17 156
104 [8] Hart County 8 – AAA 0-1-1 53.69 53.77 90
105 [7] Elbert County 8 – AA 2-0-1 53.62 38.98 198
106 [12] Spalding 2 – AAAA 1-1 53.48 51.59 107
107 [25] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 1-1 53.45 60.22 62
108 [8] Rabun County 8 – AA 1-0 53.34 46.53 137
109 [13] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 2-0 53.20 36.57 216
110 [18] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 2-1 53.09 55.62 85
111 [14] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 1-2 53.01 47.84 127
112 [9] Liberty County 2 – AAA 2-0 52.91 33.42 241
113 [15] Cairo 1 – AAAA 1-1 52.59 49.82 117
114 [19] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 3-0 52.33 30.91 262
115 [26] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 0-2 51.71 67.85 26
116 [9] Dodge County 3 – AA 1-1 51.64 53.28 95
117 [27] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-2 51.17 60.39 58
118 [37] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 0-2 51.11 64.04 44
119 [16] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 1-1 51.08 49.83 116
120 [10] Monroe 1 – AAA 1-0 50.82 41.91 178
121 [20] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 1-1 50.77 54.11 89
122 [28] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 0-2 50.76 66.80 32
123 [17] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 2-0 50.41 35.89 223
124 [29] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 2-0 50.40 31.20 257
125 [30] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 0-2 49.42 63.46 46
126 [3] Wesleyan 5 – A 2-0 49.38 29.72 275
127 [21] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 1-1 49.21 39.82 191
128 [22] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 2-0 48.83 20.68 335
129 [11] Pierce County 2 – AAA 2-0 48.74 21.84 327
130 [1] Clinch County 2 – A 2-1 48.68 37.31 210
131 [31] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 1-1 48.59 58.07 72
132 [23] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 1-1 48.31 44.62 154
133 [2] Macon County 4 – A 1-0 48.23 26.46 299
134 [24] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 0-3 48.11 60.38 59
135 [18] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 2-1 47.75 37.25 212
136 [25] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 0-2 47.72 67.36 29
137 [26] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 1-2 47.72 51.94 104
138 [12] Crisp County 1 – AAA 3-0 47.60 31.17 258
139 [4] Aquinas 7 – A 1-1 47.47 47.33 132
140 [32] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 1-1 47.13 40.28 189
141 [10] Model 7 – AA 2-0 46.73 34.84 230
142 [19] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 1-2 46.54 54.66 88
143 [38] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 2-0 46.42 29.74 274
144 [39] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 2-1 46.38 44.74 152
145 [20] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 1-1 46.38 41.48 181
146 [3] Irwin County 2 – A 1-1 46.30 43.69 160
147 [27] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 1-2 46.28 50.26 112
148 [33] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-1 45.97 43.37 162
149 [34] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 0-3 45.95 56.74 79
150 [11] Lamar County 5 – AA 2-0 45.91 32.31 248
151 [28] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 2-1 45.69 48.98 121
152 [12] Heard County 5 – AA 3-0 45.58 19.92 339
153 [35] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 1-0 45.40 32.52 246
154 [36] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 0-2 45.40 56.08 81
155 [21] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 2-0 45.38 36.03 221
156 [13] North Hall 7 – AAA 2-0 45.32 34.90 228
157 [29] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 1-1 45.13 35.00 227
158 [37] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 2-1 45.12 38.75 200
159 [5] Landmark Christian 5 – A 2-0 45.04 34.36 234
160 [22] Salem 4 – AAAA 2-0 44.86 34.35 235
161 [4] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 3-0 44.81 21.74 328
162 [30] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 0-2 44.77 66.62 33
163 [14] Cook 1 – AAA 0-3 44.64 62.22 51
164 [31] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 1-1 44.26 41.99 175
165 [32] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 1-1 43.87 35.93 222
166 [15] Worth County 1 – AAA 1-2 43.66 45.66 143
167 [16] Appling County 2 – AAA 0-1 43.60 55.32 87
168 [33] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 3-0 43.52 31.70 252
169 [17] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 1-2 43.26 39.70 193
170 [5] Manchester 4 – A 3-0 43.24 26.55 298
171 [13] Dublin 3 – AA 3-0 43.14 32.93 243
172 [18] Jackson 4 – AAA 1-2 43.08 44.25 155
173 [34] Cass 7 – AAAAA 1-1 42.79 34.84 229
174 [19] Jenkins 3 – AAA 2-0 42.68 26.71 297
175 [6] Marion County 4 – A 2-0 42.50 7.87 386
176 [38] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 0-2 42.31 48.18 124
177 [39] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 0-2 42.20 53.60 92
178 [6] Calvary Day 3 – A 2-0 42.18 2.29 397
179 [23] Pickens 6 – AAAA 1-1 42.13 39.77 192
180 [40] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 0-3 41.93 51.72 106
181 [24] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 2-0 41.83 41.57 180
182 [35] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 1-1 41.79 41.19 185
183 [25] Westover 1 – AAAA 1-1 41.75 29.65 277
184 [7] Commerce 8 – A 2-0 41.68 17.48 349
185 [40] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 0-2 41.55 52.48 101
186 [8] Lincoln County 7 – A 2-0 41.43 36.59 215
187 [14] Pepperell 7 – AA 1-0 41.33 41.98 176
188 [41] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 1-1 41.24 42.85 167
189 [36] Ola 4 – AAAAA 2-1 40.84 38.12 206
190 [20] Dawson County 7 – AAA 2-0 40.53 31.47 256
191 [15] Thomasville 1 – AA 0-2 40.52 55.70 84
192 [26] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 2-0 40.46 22.99 318
193 [16] Laney 4 – AA 0-3 40.44 53.71 91
194 [42] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 0-3 40.40 50.34 111
195 [37] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 2-0 40.37 26.43 300
196 [38] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-2 40.36 55.83 83
197 [17] Early County 1 – AA 0-1-1 40.11 32.79 245
198 [43] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-2 40.11 56.86 78
199 [39] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 1-0-1 40.00 31.75 251
200 [7] Darlington 6 – A 1-1 39.62 45.22 147
201 [40] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 2-1 39.54 11.30 373
202 [41] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-2 39.51 55.95 82
203 [27] Perry 2 – AAAA 1-0 39.45 25.21 304
204 [18] Washington County 3 – AA 0-2 39.38 61.17 54
205 [28] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 1-0-1 39.33 31.61 254
206 [21] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 2-0 38.98 22.22 325
207 [29] Troup 5 – AAAA 2-1 38.89 32.86 244
208 [42] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 1-2 38.80 41.39 182
209 [8] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 2-0 38.65 16.75 352
210 [44] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-2 38.63 43.67 161
211 [9] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 2-1 38.60 27.49 287
212 [10] First Presbyterian 7 – A 2-0 38.43 27.82 284
213 [19] Spencer 5 – AA 1-1 38.34 44.08 157
214 [45] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 1-1 37.90 37.32 209
215 [11] Savannah Christian 3 – A 1-1 37.82 34.76 231
216 [9] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 2-0 37.68 2.17 398
217 [30] West Hall 7 – AAAA 2-1 37.62 29.59 278
218 [31] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-1 37.61 35.88 224
219 [22] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 1-1 37.54 44.76 151
220 [32] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 2-1 37.22 21.50 330
221 [10] Trion 6 – A 2-0 37.17 15.74 358
222 [41] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 1-1 37.11 34.53 232
223 [33] Luella 4 – AAAA 1-2 37.11 42.76 168
224 [46] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 0-2 37.04 66.50 34
225 [20] Screven County 4 – AA 1-1 36.70 0.00 0
226 [12] Stratford Academy 7 – A 1-1 36.46 31.00 261
227 [47] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 2-1 36.45 36.96 213
228 [48] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 1-2 36.43 43.11 164
229 [13] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 1-1 36.36 42.63 170
230 [34] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 2-1 36.33 36.32 218
231 [35] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-3 35.84 39.21 196
232 [36] Madison County 8 – AAAA 1-1 35.83 39.28 195
233 [23] Ringgold 6 – AAA 2-1 35.81 30.67 266
234 [21] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 1-1 35.58 60.31 61
235 [14] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 2-0 35.55 29.76 273
236 [42] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-1 35.47 27.17 290
237 [37] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 1-1 35.45 30.15 269
238 [38] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 1-1 35.08 36.96 214
239 [49] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 2-0 35.08 24.03 314
240 [24] Morgan County 8 – AAA 1-1 34.51 29.66 276
241 [11] Bowdon 6 – A 1-1 34.48 31.52 255
242 [25] Redan 5 – AAA 1-2 34.36 46.01 140
243 [12] Charlton County 2 – A 0-1 33.99 29.42 279
244 [39] Columbus 1 – AAAA 1-1 33.87 32.96 242
245 [50] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 2-1 33.70 33.64 240
246 [13] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 1-1 33.65 39.13 197
247 [26] Union County 7 – AAA 2-0 33.09 19.79 340
248 [14] Seminole County 1 – A 1-0-1 32.63 5.74 392
249 [43] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-1 32.50 30.12 270
250 [27] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 0-1 32.37 45.25 146
251 [28] Adairsville 6 – AAA 0-3 32.14 44.91 150
252 [43] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-2 32.09 34.41 233
253 [22] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 0-3 31.96 52.01 103
254 [44] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 1-1 31.93 50.02 114
255 [15] Athens Christian 8 – A 1-1 31.67 33.78 238
256 [15] Turner County 2 – A 1-2 31.64 38.29 204
257 [29] North Murray 6 – AAA 2-0 31.60 21.22 332
258 [44] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 0-3 30.95 42.47 172
259 [23] Southwest 3 – AA 1-1 30.67 43.09 166
260 [24] Bryan County 2 – AA 1-0 30.43 14.65 364
261 [16] Athens Academy 8 – A 2-0 30.37 3.99 395
262 [40] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-2 30.10 35.32 226
263 [30] Franklin County 8 – AAA 1-1 29.93 36.07 220
264 [31] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 1-0 29.72 25.40 303
265 [32] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 1-1 29.48 23.65 315
266 [41] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-2 29.47 58.14 70
267 [42] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 1-0 29.44 9.99 380
268 [33] Brantley County 2 – AAA 1-1 29.26 33.67 239
269 [25] Douglass 6 – AA 1-1 29.15 37.81 208
270 [16] Greene County 7 – A 2-0 28.92 24.40 307
271 [26] Bacon County 2 – AA 0-1 28.89 48.59 122
272 [17] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 0-2 28.86 45.77 141
273 [27] Metter 2 – AA 0-1 28.67 44.96 148
274 [18] Hawkinsville 4 – A 2-0 28.58 16.20 354
275 [51] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 2-1 28.52 23.41 316
276 [43] Howard 2 – AAAA 0-3 28.51 40.21 190
277 [17] Holy Innocents 5 – A 1-2 27.87 34.19 237
278 [44] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 1-1 27.74 27.52 286
279 [28] Washington 6 – AA 0-2 27.73 47.41 131
280 [29] Therrell 6 – AA 1-2 27.47 40.29 188
281 [30] Swainsboro 2 – AA 0-2 27.35 43.95 158
282 [52] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-1 27.31 38.37 202
283 [18] Brookstone 4 – A 1-1 27.29 27.13 291
284 [45] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 0-2-1 27.21 43.12 163
285 [45] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-2 26.84 52.58 100
286 [53] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 0-1 26.78 53.07 97
287 [19] Dooly County 4 – A 0-3 26.62 43.81 159
288 [20] Gordon Lee 6 – A 2-0 26.42 15.89 356
289 [31] Chattooga 7 – AA 1-1 25.83 40.69 186
290 [21] Johnson County 3 – A 3-0 25.63 0.13 403
291 [34] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 1-1 25.48 24.40 308
292 [22] Telfair County 2 – A 1-0 25.46 15.45 359
293 [45] White County 7 – AAAA 0-2 25.45 32.51 247
294 [46] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 0-2 25.43 49.16 120
295 [54] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 1-1 25.33 24.08 313
296 [35] Jackson County 8 – AAA 1-2 25.25 28.25 282
297 [36] Rutland 4 – AAA 1-1 25.06 30.33 268
298 [19] Christian Heritage 6 – A 0-1 24.95 31.76 250
299 [47] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 0-2 24.90 47.99 125
300 [46] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 1-2 24.67 38.36 203
301 [37] Bremen 6 – AAA 0-2 24.46 36.54 217
302 [23] Wilkinson County 7 – A 0-2 24.37 41.96 177
303 [47] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 2-1 24.24 -0.40 404
304 [55] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 2-0 24.13 9.11 383
305 [24] Taylor County 4 – A 2-0 24.07 12.36 370
306 [48] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 1-1 23.85 23.19 317
307 [32] Rockmart 7 – AA 2-1 23.66 26.42 301
308 [49] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-2 23.23 48.18 123
309 [46] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 0-2 23.04 36.12 219
310 [38] East Hall 7 – AAA 0-2 22.62 29.87 272
311 [20] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 1-1 22.60 38.76 199
312 [39] Fannin County 7 – AAA 1-1 22.51 27.73 285
313 [47] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-3 22.34 41.32 183
314 [40] Pike County 4 – AAA 1-1 22.22 26.77 296
315 [33] Berrien 1 – AA 1-1 22.15 24.62 306
316 [34] Bleckley County 3 – AA 1-2 21.85 30.69 265
317 [21] George Walton Academy 8 – A 2-0 21.78 2.45 396
318 [25] Mitchell County 1 – A 2-0 21.77 -10.06 415
319 [41] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-3 21.65 37.27 211
320 [26] Hancock Central 7 – A 1-1 21.60 27.38 288
321 [35] Northeast 3 – AA 0-2 21.53 35.64 225
322 [27] Atkinson County 2 – A 1-1 20.91 24.14 312
323 [48] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 0-3 20.77 45.26 145
324 [42] Dougherty 1 – AAA 0-1 20.69 31.79 249
325 [56] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-3 20.54 51.94 105
326 [36] Dade County 7 – AA 1-2 20.31 31.64 253
327 [22] Tattnall Square 7 – A 1-0 20.17 10.70 377
328 [48] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-3 19.64 31.08 260
329 [28] Twiggs County 7 – A 1-1 19.59 16.64 353
330 [57] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 0-1-1 19.26 27.87 283
331 [37] Banks County 8 – AA 1-2 19.10 24.36 310
332 [29] Pelham 1 – A 2-1 19.01 5.05 393
333 [43] Murray County 6 – AAA 2-0 18.44 1.34 400
334 [49] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 2-1 18.34 7.39 387
335 [44] McNair 5 – AAA 2-0 18.12 -17.92 418
336 [30] Miller County 1 – A 1-0 17.60 14.76 362
337 [38] Coosa 7 – AA 1-1 17.48 11.03 375
338 [31] Warren County 7 – A 2-0 17.14 11.51 372
339 [50] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 2-1 17.12 -3.42 409
340 [23] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 1-1 16.96 19.70 341
341 [39] Toombs County 2 – AA 1-1 16.79 14.88 361
342 [32] Treutlen 3 – A 2-1 16.69 11.75 371
343 [50] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 0-3 16.24 28.43 281
344 [33] Crawford County 4 – A 1-0 16.17 6.82 389
345 [40] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 2-1 16.14 10.52 378
346 [41] Jordan 5 – AA 0-2 15.83 30.73 264
347 [24] Mount de Sales 7 – A 1-1 15.78 22.90 319
348 [25] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 1-1 15.55 24.64 305
349 [51] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-1 15.55 11.27 374
350 [45] Long County 2 – AAA 1-0 15.33 -5.42 411
351 [52] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-2 15.31 25.94 302
352 [46] Savannah 3 – AAA 1-1 15.30 14.66 363
353 [34] Terrell County 1 – A 1-2 14.92 20.16 337
354 [26] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 2-0 14.75 8.89 384
355 [47] Beach 3 – AAA 0-2 14.49 39.43 194
356 [35] Jenkins County 3 – A 2-0 14.34 -3.82 410
357 [42] Putnam County 8 – AA 0-3 14.30 22.47 324
358 [53] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-1 14.15 30.64 267
359 [54] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 1-2 13.91 30.02 271
360 [43] Monticello 8 – AA 0-2 13.02 26.95 294
361 [36] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 2-0 12.92 -10.47 416
362 [44] South Atlanta 6 – AA 0-3 12.78 41.19 184
363 [45] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 0-1 12.73 20.76 334
364 [55] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-2 12.45 17.32 350
365 [37] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 0-1 12.02 42.66 169
366 [27] Walker 6 – A 0-2 11.85 22.56 322
367 [51] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 1-2 11.17 22.67 320
368 [46] Temple 5 – AA 2-0 10.75 1.19 401
369 [28] St. Francis 6 – A 1-1 10.61 13.42 366
370 [38] Wilcox County 2 – A 0-2 10.55 24.38 309
371 [47] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-1 10.15 12.82 368
372 [48] East Laurens 3 – AA 1-2 9.86 13.15 367
373 [39] Greenville 4 – A 0-3 9.80 38.18 205
374 [48] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-1 9.53 42.02 174
375 [49] Butler 4 – AA 0-2 9.14 21.24 331
376 [29] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 2-0 8.85 1.43 399
377 [50] Josey 4 – AA 1-1 8.77 9.99 381
378 [51] Harlem 4 – AA 1-1 8.71 -1.90 408
379 [52] Albany 1 – AA 0-3 8.49 27.01 293
380 [49] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-2 7.94 34.23 236
381 [50] East Jackson 8 – AAA 1-1 7.59 6.00 391
382 [40] Portal 3 – A 0-2 7.52 30.75 263
383 [30] Pacelli 4 – A 0-2 6.66 15.83 357
384 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 2-1 6.62 -1.02 407
385 [51] Towers 5 – AAA 0-3 6.39 15.10 360
386 [31] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 0-2 5.94 26.85 295
387 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 1-2 5.92 19.94 338
388 [53] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 1-1 5.65 7.26 388
389 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-3 5.18 20.22 336
390 [54] Social Circle 8 – AA 1-2 4.62 17.76 348
391 [32] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 1-1 4.49 -5.89 412
392 [41] Claxton 3 – A 0-2 4.16 22.55 323
393 [42] Schley County 4 – A 1-1 4.03 16.10 355
394 [43] Lanier County 2 – A 0-2 2.95 19.55 343
395 [33] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 1-1 2.37 21.51 329
396 [52] Haralson County 6 – AAA 0-2 2.33 24.22 311
397 [55] Armuchee 7 – AA 1-1 0.74 -0.53 406
398 [44] Wheeler County 3 – A 1-1 0.71 -0.52 405
399 [45] Towns County 8 – A 1-1 0.28 21.93 326
400 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-1 0.05 10.91 376
401 [34] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-2 -1.33 9.73 382
402 [35] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 0-2 -3.55 18.98 344
403 [52] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-3 -3.81 10.00 379
404 [53] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 0-1 -4.15 14.19 365
405 [54] Groves 3 – AAA 0-2 -4.16 17.05 351
406 [46] Montgomery County 3 – A 0-2 -4.91 17.90 346
407 [55] Islands 3 – AAA 0-3 -5.27 22.65 321
408 [47] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 0-1 -7.65 0.86 402
409 [56] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-3 -9.24 19.65 342
410 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 0-3 -9.43 21.04 333
411 [48] Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-1 -9.50 -11.72 417
412 [49] Calhoun County 1 – A 0-2 -10.31 8.63 385
413 [36] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-1 -11.81 -9.96 414
414 [57] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 0-2 -12.23 12.49 369
415 [57] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-2 -14.76 17.78 347
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 0-2 -20.63 6.76 390
417 [50] Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-3 -22.28 4.06 394
418 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-1 -26.40 18.28 345
419 [51] Stewart County 1 – A 0-2 -28.62 27.05 292
420 [3] Webster County 1 – A† 0-0 -37.16 0.00 0
421 [4] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 0-1 -42.45 -9.35 413
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAAA 91.24 76.32
2 8 – AAAAAAA 90.89 69.83
3 1 – AAAAAA 88.75 73.98
4 6 – AAAAAAA 84.91 61.59
5 4 – AAAAAAA 84.75 65.62
6 3 – AAAAAAA 83.68 64.36
7 7 – AAAAAAA 78.50 54.89
8 5 – AAAAAA 77.81 60.66
9 5 – AAAA 74.54 47.48
10 2 – AAAAAAA 73.85 56.24
11 5 – AAAAAAA 72.00 55.87
12 6 – AAAAAA 71.47 54.12
13 8 – AAAAAA 71.43 49.90
14 7 – AAAAA 70.48 52.86
15 2 – AAAAAA 69.34 50.74
16 7 – AAAA 69.17 42.81
17 4 – AAAAAA 67.95 51.34
18 4 – AAAAA 67.83 48.09
19 8 – AAAA 66.82 48.84
20 1 – AAAAA 66.76 51.48
21 5 – AAA 65.12 40.93
22 2 – AAAAA 64.36 42.53
23 8 – AAAAA 64.16 41.07
24 2 – AAAA 63.44 47.46
25 1 – AA 63.35 40.24
26 3 – AAAAA 62.67 45.52
27 3 – AAAA 62.30 35.77
28 4 – AAAA 61.04 41.41
29 7 – AAAAAA 60.31 42.71
30 1 – AAA 58.17 42.55
31 7 – AAA 57.45 35.94
32 6 – AAAAA 57.17 34.45
33 2 – AA 56.95 31.21
34 5 – AA 56.82 37.17
35 1 – AAAA 56.76 41.20
36 2 – AAA 55.01 36.93
37 3 – AAAAAA 53.92 38.70
38 4 – AAA 53.45 35.50
39 5 – A 52.80 27.20
40 5 – AAAAA 52.08 39.05
41 3 – AA 49.87 31.17
42 6 – AAAA 49.04 29.30
43 8 – AA 48.06 19.03
44 8 – AAA 47.88 29.04
45 2 – A 47.25 27.82
46 6 – AAA 45.88 23.68
6 – South – AAA 54.67 31.55
6 – North – AAA 36.85 14.30
47 4 – AA 44.58 19.21
48 6 – A 44.52 26.67
6 – Div A – A 46.22 30.13
6 – Div B – A 42.73 22.87
49 4 – A 43.21 22.62
4 – Div A – A 43.46 20.29
4 – Div B – A 42.95 24.28
50 7 – A 42.84 28.01
7 – Div B – A 43.67 30.61
7 – Div A – A 41.86 25.55
51 7 – AA 42.04 21.29
52 8 – A 42.02 17.73
53 6 – AA 41.36 26.05
54 3 – A 40.72 19.56
3 – Div A – A 43.66 23.97
3 – Div B – A 36.68 15.34
55 3 – AAA 33.56 11.26
56 1 – A 26.06 10.41

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/26 Westside (Macon) Southwest 3 – 8 12.44 77.6% 0.300
09/03 Colquitt County Tucker 20 – 21 10.24 73.6% 0.354
08/26 Dutchtown Ola 19 – 20 8.53 70.1% 0.381
08/26 Woodward Academy Grady 10 – 14 7.51 67.9% 0.386
08/20 Tucker Kell 13 – 20 5.93 64.4% 0.404
08/26 Cedar Grove Southwest DeKalb 20 – 21 6.92 66.6% 0.406
08/19 Jonesboro Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 7 – 9 6.54 65.8% 0.409
08/18 Heard County South Atlanta 22 – 19 32.96 96.4% 0.411
08/19 Jenkins New Hampstead 21 – 20 28.93 94.7% 0.415
09/02 Cass Sonoraville 25 – 28 5.09 62.5% 0.428
08/26 Morgan County Greene County 12 – 13 5.44 63.3% 0.429
09/02 Pelham Terrell County 15 – 24 3.94 59.7% 0.434
08/26 Charlton County Brantley County 29 – 32 4.57 61.2% 0.436
08/26 Mount Paran Christian Fellowship Christian 7 – 14 2.89 57.2% 0.455
08/26 Newton Eastside 41 – 41 8.63 70.3% 0.457

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
90.55 09/02 Grayson McEachern 16 – 13 5.32 63.0%
87.93 08/20 Mill Creek Colquitt County 34 – 27 8.56 70.2%
87.74 09/09 Roswell Colquitt County 6.63 66.0%
86.90 08/19 Roswell Buford 24 – 7 7.72 68.4%
86.30 10/14 Grayson Archer 10.07 73.2%
86.16 09/09 Mill Creek Archer 10.54 74.1%
86.06 09/23 Roswell Archer 8.76 70.6%
85.50 08/20 McEachern Archer 27 – 14 5.06 62.4%
84.43 09/23 Colquitt County Valdosta 1.95 54.9%
79.48 09/16 Archer Norcross 6.40 65.5%
79.42 10/28 Archer South Gwinnett 6.28 65.2%
79.41 11/04 Grayson South Gwinnett 16.81 84.3%
78.74 10/28 Colquitt County Lowndes 9.17 71.4%
78.64 09/02 Mill Creek Dacula 30 – 0 17.51 85.2%
78.54 08/19 Valdosta Lowndes 38 – 13 7.37 67.6%

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