Maxwell Week 2 Summary: Big weekend looms; chances of state championship preview

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

– The ratings are fairly stable so far, but this weekend feature three of the season’s top 15 matchups so there is a potential for some shake up:

— Grayson faces McEachern in their only in-state contest until region play begins in October. Unfortunately the ratings don’t put much weight on their outside contests since the scope of the ratings is only Georgia teams, however this contest should be a good gauge as to close McEachern (and Mill Creek) are to Grayson this season.

— Colquitt, the second highest rated team in Class AAAAAAA, faces Tucker, the top rated team in Class AAAAAA. The Packers are a two-touchdown favorite in the ratings and are looking to avenge a 21-20 upset from last season.

— Lowndes, probably the only challenger to Colquitt County for Region 1-AAAAAAA, faces Parkview, probably the only challenger to Norcross in 7-AAAAAAA. Norcross lost to Colquitt County 20-17 to open the season.

– Counting this weekend’s Grayson-McEachern pairing, there are 15 games that have a 1% chance or greater of being a preview of the eventual state championship game:

Class Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Preview %
AAAA 10/13 Cartersville Sandy Creek – 17.51 85.2% 4.6%
AAA 08/25 Greater Atlanta Christian Westminster (Atlanta) 41 – 7 17.19 84.8% 3.7%
AAAAAA 10/13 Tucker Lovejoy – 13.06 78.7% 2.7%
AAA 08/18 Greater Atlanta Christian Lovett 46 – 14 18.95 86.9% 2.7%
AAA 09/22 Cedar Grove Westminster (Atlanta) – 14.95 81.7% 2.3%
AAAAAA 10/20 Valdosta Lee County – 3.49 58.6% 2.1%
AAAAAAA 09/01 Grayson McEachern – 16.45 83.8% 2.1%
AAAAAAA 10/27 Colquitt County Lowndes – 6.87 66.5% 2.1%
AAAAAAA 10/13 Grayson Archer – 19.74 87.8% 2.1%
AAAAA 09/08 Rome Kell – 5.67 63.8% 1.8%
AAAAA 09/29 Rome Carrollton – 6.83 66.4% 1.7%
AAA 09/15 Cedar Grove Lovett – 17.42 85.1% 1.5%
AAAAA 10/20 Kell Carrollton – 1.52 53.8% 1.5%
AAAAA 10/27 Stockbridge Jones County – 9.39 71.9% 1.2%
AAAAAA 10/27 Valdosta Coffee – 7.09 67.0% 1.0%

Of note is that Greater Atlanta Christian has already faced and handily vanquished both of the opponents on her schedule by a combined scored of 87-21.

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 53.91%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 289 of 302 total games including 0 tie(s) (95.70%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.61 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 0.36

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 1-0 100.40 1 Tucker 2-0 79.63
2 Colquitt County 2-0 92.95 2 Valdosta 1-1 77.35
3 Mill Creek 2-0 91.93 3 Lee County 2-0 74.22
4 Lowndes 2-0 85.73 4 Glynn Academy 1-1 71.69
5 McEachern 0-1 84.31 5 Allatoona 1-1 70.60
6 Archer 2-0 80.31 6 Mays 0-1 70.05
7 Norcross 1-1 78.23 7 Coffee 2-0 69.90
8 Roswell 0-1 77.42 8 Hughes 2-0 69.34
9 North Cobb 2-0 75.98 9 Harrison 1-1 66.54
10 Parkview 2-0 75.04 10 Lovejoy 2-0 66.22
11 South Forsyth 2-0 73.67 11 Northgate 1-0 66.11
12 Walton 2-0 72.44 12 Northside (Warner Robins) 1-1 66.08
13 North Gwinnett 1-1 68.54 13 Dalton 0-1 62.84
14 Central Gwinnett 2-0 67.19 14 Stephenson 0-2 62.67
15 Tift County 2-0 67.09 15 Alexander 0-1 61.31
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 2-0 84.48 1 Cartersville 2-0 87.53
2 Stockbridge 1-0 76.49 2 Woodward Academy 1-0 71.95
3 Rome 1-0 75.27 3 Sandy Creek 1-0 70.38
4 Kell 0-1 69.95 4 Blessed Trinity 2-0 68.75
5 Carrollton 1-0 68.79 5 Thomson 2-0 66.18
6 Jones County 2-0 66.74 6 Jefferson 2-0 64.87
7 Warner Robins 2-0 64.38 7 Marist 1-0 64.84
8 Ware County 0-1 63.71 8 Mary Persons 1-1 62.09
9 Griffin 1-0 62.91 9 Burke County 2-0 53.45
10 Starr’s Mill 1-0 60.08 10 Ridgeland 2-0 53.05
11 Woodland (Stockbridge) 1-1 57.66 11 St. Pius X 0-1 51.94
12 Bainbridge 0-1 55.95 12 Cairo 0-1 50.88
13 Dutchtown 1-0 53.63 13 Spalding 0-1 49.90
14 Carver (Atlanta) 2-0 51.31 14 Upson-Lee 1-0 48.11
15 Thomas County Central 1-1 51.24 15 Troup 2-0 46.73
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 2-0 73.20 1 Benedictine 1-0 82.63
2 Cedar Grove 2-0 70.96 2 Thomasville 2-0 60.16
3 Calhoun 2-0 68.33 3 Fitzgerald 1-1 59.95
4 Peach County 1-0 66.30 4 Callaway 1-0 57.26
5 Westminster (Atlanta) 0-2 56.37 5 Rabun County 1-0 56.18
6 Lovett 0-2 53.89 6 Brooks County 1-0 55.05
7 Pace Academy 0-1 52.76 7 Hapeville Charter 1-1 54.02
8 Crisp County 2-0 51.77 8 Jefferson County 2-0 47.86
9 Monroe 1-0 43.04 9 Screven County 1-0 47.47
10 Jenkins 2-0 42.31 10 Dodge County 1-0 45.53
11 Dawson County 1-0 42.30 11 Spencer 1-0 42.33
12 Sonoraville 1-0 41.83 12 Rockmart 1-1 41.98
13 Jackson 0-2 40.80 13 Swainsboro 2-0 41.91
14 Liberty County 0-1 40.74 14 Vidalia 0-1 41.35
15 Cook 0-2 39.70 15 Washington County 0-1 40.11
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 1-0 54.19 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 2-0 65.93
2 Clinch County 2-0 52.59 2 Prince Avenue Christian 2-0 55.42
3 Manchester 2-0 46.42 3 Wesleyan 2-0 51.70
4 Irwin County 1-1 44.93 4 Mount Paran Christian 2-0 49.87
5 Commerce 1-0 42.12 5 Tattnall Square 1-0 44.23
6 Turner County 2-0 41.18 6 Calvary Day 2-0 43.89
7 Mount Zion (Carroll) 1-0 39.87 7 Darlington 1-0 42.39
8 Emanuel County Institute 1-1 37.13 8 Aquinas 1-1 41.90
9 Charlton County 1-0 37.11 9 Stratford Academy 1-0 40.78
10 McIntosh County Academy 1-1 36.92 10 Pinecrest Academy 0-1 36.35
11 Washington-Wilkes 1-0 36.57 11 Athens Academy 1-0 36.15
12 Lincoln County 1-0 35.63 12 Fellowship Christian 1-1 35.92
13 Dooly County 0-2 34.66 13 Mount Pisgah Christian 1-1 35.32
14 Taylor County 1-0 32.87 14 First Presbyterian 1-0 34.50
15 Telfair County 1-0 31.97 15 Athens Christian 1-0 30.21

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 1-0 100.40
2 [2] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-0 92.95 78.23 5
3 [3] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 2-0 91.93 73.66 15
4 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 2-0 87.53 70.96 22
5 [4] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 2-0 85.73 76.99 8
6 [1] Buford 8 – AAAAA 2-0 84.48 63.80 52
7 [5] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 0-1 84.31 91.93 1
8 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 1-0 82.63 71.69 19
9 [6] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 2-0 80.31 64.26 51
10 [1] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 2-0 79.63 46.56 132
11 [7] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 1-1 78.23 78.11 6
12 [8] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 0-1 77.42 73.67 14
13 [2] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 1-1 77.35 71.70 18
14 [2] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 1-0 76.49 70.41 24
15 [9] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 2-0 75.98 59.56 64
16 [3] Rome 7 – AAAAA 1-0 75.27 66.19 45
17 [10] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 2-0 75.04 56.00 73
18 [3] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 2-0 74.22 58.85 65
19 [11] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 2-0 73.67 56.71 69
20 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 2-0 73.20 55.13 76
21 [12] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 2-0 72.44 66.69 39
22 [2] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 1-0 71.95 38.93 185
23 [4] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 1-1 71.69 72.99 16
24 [2] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 2-0 70.96 54.09 86
25 [5] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 1-1 70.60 74.06 12
26 [3] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 1-0 70.38 55.04 78
27 [6] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 0-1 70.05 76.13 10
28 [4] Kell 7 – AAAAA 0-1 69.95 79.63 4
29 [7] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 2-0 69.90 51.45 102
30 [8] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 2-0 69.34 54.13 84
31 [5] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 1-0 68.79 47.70 124
32 [4] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 2-0 68.75 54.16 83
33 [13] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 1-1 68.54 67.98 32
34 [3] Calhoun 6 – AAA 2-0 68.33 48.80 117
35 [14] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 2-0 67.19 62.08 58
36 [15] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-0 67.09 35.21 210
37 [6] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 2-0 66.74 48.37 118
38 [16] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 1-1 66.63 54.09 87
39 [9] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 1-1 66.54 62.74 57
40 [17] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 0-1 66.48 68.98 28
41 [4] Peach County 4 – AAA 1-0 66.30 57.35 66
42 [10] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 2-0 66.22 49.90 110
43 [5] Thomson 3 – AAAA 2-0 66.18 42.31 150
44 [11] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 1-0 66.11 46.95 128
45 [18] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 2-0 66.10 55.07 77
46 [12] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 1-1 66.08 40.30 173
47 [19] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 2-0 65.99 46.76 130
48 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 2-0 65.93 45.39 139
49 [20] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 2-0 65.77 42.50 149
50 [21] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 0-2 65.19 76.55 9
51 [6] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 2-0 64.87 31.60 234
52 [7] Marist 7 – AAAA 1-0 64.84 54.25 82
53 [22] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 1-1 64.54
54 [7] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 2-0 64.38 57.07 68
55 [23] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 0-1 63.80 84.48 2
56 [8] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 0-1 63.71 72.04 17
57 [24] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 0-2 63.68 77.67 7
58 [25] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 2-0 63.63 34.91 215
59 [26] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 1-1 63.62 63.63 53
60 [27] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 1-1 63.53 60.30 62
61 [28] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 2-0 63.26 37.65 193
62 [29] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 1-1 63.16 61.91 59
63 [9] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 1-0 62.91 49.90 111
64 [13] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 0-1 62.84 68.68 29
65 [14] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 0-2 62.67 81.27 3
66 [8] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 1-1 62.09 57.33 67
67 [15] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 0-1 61.31 70.96 21
68 [30] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 1-0 61.14 52.90 97
69 [16] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 0-1 60.63 67.55 35
70 [2] Thomasville 1 – AA 2-0 60.16 51.06 104
71 [10] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 1-0 60.08 47.35 125
72 [3] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 1-1 59.95 49.83 112
73 [31] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 0-1 58.38 66.57 40
74 [17] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 2-0 58.02 50.05 109
75 [11] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 1-1 57.66 53.28 93
76 [32] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 0-1 57.37 66.46 41
77 [4] Callaway 5 – AA 1-0 57.26 36.82 198
78 [18] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 0-2 56.99 66.34 43
79 [5] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 0-2 56.37 70.97 20
80 [19] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 1-0 56.19 45.89 136
81 [5] Rabun County 8 – AA 1-0 56.18 34.96 213
82 [20] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 1-1 55.99 56.51 71
83 [12] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 0-1 55.95 74.57 11
84 [2] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 2-0 55.42 22.56 290
85 [21] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-1 55.39 70.73 23
86 [6] Brooks County 1 – AA 1-0 55.05 40.05 175
87 [33] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 0-1 54.97 63.28 55
88 [22] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 0-2 54.43 67.86 34
89 [1] Macon County 4 – A 1-0 54.19 34.31 224
90 [7] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 1-1 54.02 59.60 63
91 [6] Lovett 5 – AAA 0-2 53.89 68.67 31
92 [13] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 1-0 53.63 40.91 165
93 [9] Burke County 3 – AAAA 2-0 53.45 27.81 258
94 [23] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 1-1 53.41 50.66 106
95 [24] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 1-0 53.25 16.04 329
96 [10] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 2-0 53.05 39.47 181
97 [7] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 0-1 52.76 65.75 47
98 [2] Clinch County 2 – A 2-0 52.59 29.16 248
99 [34] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 1-1 52.55 54.74 79
100 [11] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-1 51.94 69.10 27
101 [35] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-2 51.78 67.00 37
102 [8] Crisp County 1 – AAA 2-0 51.77 36.37 205
103 [3] Wesleyan 5 – A 2-0 51.70 24.91 280
104 [14] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 2-0 51.31 26.28 274
105 [15] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 1-1 51.24 48.89 116
106 [12] Cairo 1 – AAAA 0-1 50.88 60.52 61
107 [16] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 2-0 50.62 36.80 199
108 [17] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 0-1 50.21 66.90 38
109 [13] Spalding 2 – AAAA 0-1 49.90 62.91 56
110 [4] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 2-0 49.87 27.30 265
111 [25] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 1-1 49.85 46.28 133
112 [36] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 1-1 49.02 49.29 114
113 [26] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 0-1 48.82 70.26 25
114 [18] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 0-1 48.41 64.74 48
115 [27] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 48.34 52.19 98
116 [37] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 0-2 48.31 69.33 26
117 [14] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 1-0 48.11 27.00 269
118 [8] Jefferson County 4 – AA 2-0 47.86 28.13 256
119 [19] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 1-0 47.76 43.84 144
120 [38] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 0-2 47.70 64.61 49
121 [28] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 2-0 47.66 35.91 207
122 [29] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 1-1 47.51 47.79 121
123 [9] Screven County 4 – AA 1-0 47.47
124 [20] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 2-0 47.09 13.80 341
125 [30] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 1-0 46.90 15.20 332
126 [15] Troup 5 – AAAA 2-0 46.73 26.71 272
127 [16] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 2-0 46.73 41.63 158
128 [17] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 1-0 46.71 18.76 305
129 [21] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 1-1 46.60 50.92 105
130 [3] Manchester 4 – A 2-0 46.42 14.43 337
131 [18] Eastside 4 – AAAA 1-1 46.36 48.91 115
132 [22] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 1-0 46.32 29.56 245
133 [31] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 46.24 56.54 70
134 [23] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 1-1 45.71 43.51 148
135 [24] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 0-1 45.69 66.29 44
136 [19] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 1-0 45.66 33.29 229
137 [10] Dodge County 3 – AA 1-0 45.53 41.70 157
138 [25] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 1-1 45.51 50.30 107
139 [32] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 1-1 45.08 45.47 138
140 [4] Irwin County 2 – A 1-1 44.93 41.04 164
141 [20] Pickens 6 – AAAA 1-0 44.87 36.74 200
142 [33] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-1 44.68 66.12 46
143 [5] Tattnall Square 7 – A 1-0 44.23 9.54 358
144 [21] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 0-1 44.19 48.12 120
145 [34] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 1-0 44.16 40.68 168
146 [22] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 2-0 44.04 20.76 297
147 [39] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 1-0 43.90 38.33 191
148 [6] Calvary Day 3 – A 2-0 43.89 2.90 378
149 [35] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 1-0 43.88 28.83 250
150 [9] Monroe 1 – AAA 1-0 43.04 35.95 206
151 [7] Darlington 6 – A 1-0 42.39
152 [11] Spencer 5 – AA 1-0 42.33 38.73 187
153 [10] Jenkins 3 – AAA 2-0 42.31 28.96 249
154 [11] Dawson County 7 – AAA 1-0 42.30 32.69 231
155 [5] Commerce 8 – A 1-0 42.12 19.10 303
156 [12] Rockmart 7 – AA 1-1 41.98 47.08 127
157 [13] Swainsboro 2 – AA 2-0 41.91 38.96 184
158 [8] Aquinas 7 – A 1-1 41.90 42.09 152
159 [26] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 0-1 41.89 64.51 50
160 [12] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 1-0 41.83 34.52 220
161 [36] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 0-2 41.78 67.96 33
162 [37] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 1-0 41.47 28.41 253
163 [14] Vidalia 2 – AA 0-1 41.35 45.18 140
164 [27] Ola 4 – AAAAA 1-1 41.26 40.39 171
165 [6] Turner County 2 – A 2-0 41.18 29.59 244
166 [13] Jackson 4 – AAA 0-2 40.80 52.00 99
167 [9] Stratford Academy 7 – A 1-0 40.78 17.97 312
168 [14] Liberty County 2 – AAA 0-1 40.74 39.74 177
169 [38] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 0-2 40.57 56.14 72
170 [28] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 0-2 40.32 54.61 80
171 [15] Washington County 3 – AA 0-1 40.11 67.10 36
172 [39] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 1-0 40.10 41.09 163
173 [29] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 1-0 40.00 21.20 294
174 [7] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 1-0 39.87
175 [16] Pepperell 7 – AA 0-1 39.70 53.40 92
176 [15] Cook 1 – AAA 0-2 39.70 61.07 60
177 [17] Southwest 3 – AA 1-0 39.39 38.53 189
178 [23] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 0-1 39.37 46.06 134
179 [30] Grady 6 – AAAAA 0-2 39.28 54.10 85
180 [16] Adairsville 6 – AAA 1-1 39.24 43.75 145
181 [40] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 0-1 38.81
182 [31] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 2-0 38.74 26.10 275
183 [24] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 0-2 38.73 39.86 176
184 [32] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 0-1 38.66 34.53 218
185 [17] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 1-1 38.53 31.96 232
186 [25] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 1-0 38.20 16.07 328
187 [18] Chattooga 7 – AA 0-1 38.20
188 [19] Heard County 5 – AA 1-1 38.14 14.69 334
189 [33] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 0-1 37.98 43.54 146
190 [18] Morgan County 8 – AAA 1-0 37.89 25.12 279
191 [41] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 37.79 53.06 95
192 [19] Worth County 1 – AAA 0-2 37.63 45.85 137
193 [26] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 0-1 37.36 51.41 103
194 [27] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 1-1 37.35 41.88 155
195 [8] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 1-1 37.13 31.27 235
196 [9] Charlton County 2 – A 1-0 37.11 27.28 266
197 [34] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 1-1 37.04 38.04 192
198 [10] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 1-1 36.92 40.11 174
199 [20] Bremen 6 – AAA 1-0 36.88 27.80 259
200 [28] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-2 36.82 53.76 90
201 [29] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 1-1 36.77 38.98 183
202 [30] West Hall 7 – AAAA 1-1 36.57 22.82 289
203 [11] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 1-0 36.57 29.69 243
204 [20] Dublin 3 – AA 1-1 36.44 35.90 208
205 [42] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 1-1 36.38 37.18 196
206 [10] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-1 36.35 74.02 13
207 [43] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-0 36.25 39.64 178
208 [21] Appling County 2 – AAA 0-0 36.23
209 [31] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 1-0 36.18 27.53 264
210 [11] Athens Academy 8 – A 1-0 36.15 16.88 324
211 [35] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 2-0 36.06 21.30 293
212 [32] Westover 1 – AAAA 1-1 35.95 34.92 214
213 [12] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 1-1 35.92 29.80 241
214 [44] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 1-0 35.87 27.67 260
215 [12] Lincoln County 7 – A 1-0 35.63
216 [21] Douglass 6 – AA 0-1 35.47 68.68 30
217 [13] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 1-1 35.32 40.31 172
218 [33] Perry 2 – AAAA 1-0 35.15 15.69 330
219 [22] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 1-0 34.89 39.01 182
220 [45] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 34.73 63.62 54
221 [13] Dooly County 4 – A 0-2 34.66 52.98 96
222 [23] Pierce County 2 – AAA 0-1 34.51 34.42 223
223 [14] First Presbyterian 7 – A 1-0 34.50 29.28 246
224 [36] Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-1 34.45 38.89 186
225 [34] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 2-0 34.39 7.55 367
226 [35] White County 7 – AAAA 2-0 34.18 17.90 313
227 [36] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 2-0 34.18 13.01 345
228 [22] Model 7 – AA 0-1 34.16 41.47 160
229 [46] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 2-0 34.12 17.51 315
230 [23] Bacon County 2 – AA 1-0 34.06 34.16 225
231 [24] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 1-1 34.03 39.52 180
232 [40] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 0-1 33.91 33.13 230
233 [37] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 0-1 33.64 46.01 135
234 [37] Columbus 1 – AAAA 1-0 33.05 17.40 318
235 [24] Union County 7 – AAA 1-0 32.91 3.88 376
236 [41] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 1-1 32.91 49.70 113
237 [14] Taylor County 4 – A 1-0 32.87 13.50 343
238 [47] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-1 32.78 33.41 228
239 [42] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-1 32.34 41.95 154
240 [38] Luella 4 – AAAA 0-2 32.18 46.75 131
241 [15] Telfair County 2 – A 1-0 31.97 18.63 306
242 [38] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 1-0 31.59 19.04 304
243 [48] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 0-2 31.31 48.22 119
244 [25] Washington 6 – AA 1-0 31.16 29.92 239
245 [39] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-2 31.08 54.52 81
246 [16] Trion 6 – A 1-0 30.86 8.32 365
247 [40] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 1-0 30.82 16.50 327
248 [41] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 1-0 30.65 21.67 292
249 [15] Athens Christian 8 – A 1-0 30.21 13.21 344
250 [42] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 2-0 30.08 -9.95 393
251 [25] Redan 5 – AAA 1-1 29.64 36.65 202
252 [39] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 1-1 29.57 30.02 238
253 [43] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-1 29.49 13.79 342
254 [26] Laney 4 – AA 0-2 29.47 54.04 88
255 [27] Elbert County 8 – AA 1-1 29.34 27.66 261
256 [26] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 0-1 29.28 34.50 221
257 [43] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 0-2 29.24 38.54 188
258 [44] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 0-2 29.21 51.99 100
259 [40] Salem 4 – AAAA 0-1 28.77 41.82 156
260 [49] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 0-2 28.67 41.58 159
261 [45] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-0 28.60 16.72 325
262 [27] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 0-1 28.47 43.53 147
263 [28] Lamar County 5 – AA 0-1 28.38 27.08 268
264 [50] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 1-0 28.28 23.16 288
265 [16] George Walton Academy 8 – A 1-0 28.02 4.72 372
266 [28] Jackson County 8 – AAA 2-0 27.92 20.20 302
267 [51] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 0-2 27.88 45.17 141
268 [46] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 0-2 27.79 40.66 169
269 [17] Mitchell County 1 – A 1-0 27.75 21.20 295
270 [47] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-1 27.74 53.09 94
271 [29] Toombs County 2 – AA 2-0 27.69 14.02 339
272 [18] Bowdon 6 – A 0-1 27.45 36.52 203
273 [30] Northeast 3 – AA 1-0 27.44 28.73 251
274 [17] Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-2 27.33 35.76 209
275 [29] East Hall 7 – AAA 1-1 27.31 29.17 247
276 [19] Marion County 4 – A 2-0 27.28 8.65 363
277 [30] Ringgold 6 – AAA 0-2 27.18 39.57 179
278 [31] Brantley County 2 – AAA 0-2 26.92 36.66 201
279 [48] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-1 26.84 27.27 267
280 [41] Shaw 1 – AAAA 0-1 26.64 47.75 123
281 [49] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 1-1 26.47 33.64 227
282 [32] Pike County 4 – AAA 0-1 26.45 40.91 166
283 [33] North Murray 6 – AAA 1-0 26.44 6.26 371
284 [20] Pelham 1 – A 1-1 26.43 9.15 360
285 [52] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 1-0 26.19 12.64 347
286 [50] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 0-1 26.11 47.30 126
287 [53] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-1 25.48 51.67 101
288 [54] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 0-2 25.36 42.09 153
289 [34] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 1-1 25.19 16.90 323
290 [31] Early County 1 – AA 0-1 25.19
291 [18] Savannah Christian 3 – A 0-2 24.96 36.99 197
292 [42] Howard 2 – AAAA 1-1 24.89 23.90 284
293 [21] Greene County 7 – A 0-1 24.76 37.53 194
294 [19] Holy Innocents 5 – A 1-1 24.43 18.23 310
295 [22] Miller County 1 – A 1-0 24.28 12.79 346
296 [44] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 0-2 23.16 53.95 89
297 [32] Berrien 1 – AA 1-1 22.84 23.26 286
298 [43] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 1-1 22.47 23.72 285
299 [45] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 1-0 22.46 17.22 320
300 [44] Madison County 8 – AAAA 0-1 21.66 27.57 263
301 [35] Dougherty 1 – AAA 0-2 21.55 34.82 216
302 [33] Bleckley County 3 – AA 1-1 21.39 31.16 237
303 [46] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 0-2 21.31 47.76 122
304 [23] Johnson County 3 – A 1-0 21.09 10.65 355
305 [36] North Hall 7 – AAA 0-2 20.84 31.23 236
306 [34] Metter 2 – AA 0-1 20.63 37.48 195
307 [35] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 1-0 20.55 9.36 359
308 [37] Hart County 8 – AAA 0-1 19.46 29.69 242
309 [36] Coosa 7 – AA 1-0 19.29 -18.58 400
310 [38] Franklin County 8 – AAA 0-2 19.11 40.80 167
311 [51] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-1 18.88 33.77 226
312 [37] Banks County 8 – AA 0-2 18.74 35.02 212
313 [39] Towers 5 – AAA 1-1 18.68 17.10 321
314 [20] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 1-1 18.68 50.23 108
315 [38] Putnam County 8 – AA 2-0 18.50 8.88 362
316 [40] Savannah 3 – AAA 0-1 18.28 31.61 233
317 [45] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 1-0 18.17 -6.61 390
318 [24] Twiggs County 7 – A 0-1 18.09 28.04 257
319 [21] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 1-0 17.94 1.01 382
320 [52] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 2-0 17.84 7.05 368
321 [41] Fannin County 7 – AAA 1-0 17.66 3.17 377
322 [22] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 0-1 17.61 40.42 170
323 [46] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 2-0 17.50 -18.17 398
324 [42] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 0-1 17.40 34.54 217
325 [39] Jordan 5 – AA 1-1 17.40 24.25 282
326 [23] Walker 6 – A 0-1 17.23 36.51 204
327 [24] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 1-0 17.06 2.19 381
328 [25] Seminole County 1 – A 1-0 17.00 -21.88 401
329 [55] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 1-1 16.86 17.64 314
330 [43] Beach 3 – AAA 1-0 16.65 11.68 352
331 [47] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-1 16.58 66.43 42
332 [40] Therrell 6 – AA 0-2 16.50 41.44 162
333 [53] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-1 16.40 53.61 91
334 [41] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 0-1 16.37 28.25 254
335 [56] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 0-1 16.13 34.48 222
336 [44] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-2 16.07 42.29 151
337 [42] Temple 5 – AA 1-0 16.00 4.29 374
338 [54] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-1 15.81 20.21 301
339 [45] Rutland 4 – AAA 0-1 15.69 35.15 211
340 [26] Wilkinson County 7 – A 0-1 15.65 34.53 219
341 [25] Brookstone 4 – A 1-1 15.09 2.88 379
342 [43] South Atlanta 6 – AA 0-2 15.05 41.45 161
343 [57] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 0-2 14.85 55.27 75
344 [48] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 1-1 14.63 11.93 348
345 [27] Wheeler County 3 – A 2-0 14.22 -3.32 388
346 [49] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 0-2 13.94 25.93 276
347 [44] Dade County 7 – AA 1-1 13.63 11.88 350
348 [47] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 1-1 13.53 4.39 373
349 [28] Terrell County 1 – A 0-2 13.14 28.57 252
350 [29] Crawford County 4 – A 1-0 13.12 -11.24 394
351 [45] Monticello 8 – AA 0-1 12.85 29.85 240
352 [46] Butler 4 – AA 1-1 12.28 20.41 300
353 [30] Gordon Lee 6 – A 0-1 12.23 13.98 340
354 [46] Islands 3 – AAA 1-1 12.15 26.93 270
355 [47] Bryan County 2 – AA 0-1 12.04 17.00 322
356 [47] Murray County 6 – AAA 1-0 11.88 -17.76 397
357 [48] McNair 5 – AAA 1-0 11.40 -18.47 399
358 [26] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 1-0 10.73 0.30 383
359 [31] Hawkinsville 4 – A 0-1 10.45 21.74 291
360 [55] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 0-1 10.43 17.48 316
361 [32] Hancock Central 7 – A 0-2 10.37 26.34 273
362 [48] East Laurens 3 – AA 0-2 10.30 24.21 283
363 [33] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 0-1 10.02 27.63 262
364 [34] Atkinson County 2 – A 0-2 9.72 28.24 255
365 [49] Long County 2 – AAA 0-1 9.62 11.79 351
366 [49] Josey 4 – AA 1-0 9.38 -5.26 389
367 [35] Treutlen 3 – A 1-1 9.26 2.43 380
368 [36] Wilcox County 2 – A 0-1 9.19 43.87 143
369 [27] Mount de Sales 7 – A 1-1 8.91 6.82 369
370 [50] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 1-1 8.68 14.75 333
371 [37] Schley County 4 – A 1-1 7.98 9.64 356
372 [50] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 1-0 7.87 6.29 370
373 [50] Harlem 4 – AA 1-0 7.81 -23.64 402
374 [38] Warren County 7 – A 0-1 7.38 18.14 311
375 [28] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 1-0 7.33 -23.64 403
376 [29] Christian Heritage 6 – A 0-1 6.62 26.79 271
377 [39] Jenkins County 3 – A 1-1 6.29 -2.90 387
378 [40] Montgomery County 3 – A 0-0 6.04
379 [51] Social Circle 8 – AA 1-1 4.37 11.91 349
380 [41] Towns County 8 – A 1-0 3.99
381 [51] Haralson County 6 – AAA 0-1 3.93 15.65 331
382 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 1-1 3.58 11.38 353
383 [51] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-2 3.53 25.28 278
384 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 0-2 3.32 18.44 308
385 [30] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 0-1 3.21 55.78 74
386 [52] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 1-0 2.58 -13.68 395
387 [31] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 0-1 2.54 17.42 317
388 [42] Lanier County 2 – A 0-1 1.59 23.19 287
389 [43] Portal 3 – A 0-1 1.28 9.61 357
390 [32] St. Francis 6 – A 0-1 1.13 24.78 281
391 [44] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 0-1 0.76
392 [52] East Jackson 8 – AAA 0-2 0.65 14.34 338
393 [33] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 1-1 -0.92 -7.91 391
394 [34] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 1-0 -1.17 -0.57 384
395 [53] Armuchee 7 – AA 1-1 -1.36 -1.70 386
396 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 0-2 -1.43 38.41 190
397 [45] Greenville 4 – A 0-1 -2.61 46.78 129
398 [46] Claxton 3 – A 0-1 -2.63 25.55 277
399 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-2 -4.21 20.47 299
400 [54] Groves 3 – AAA 0-1 -5.62 9.02 361
401 [55] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-1 -5.99 44.24 142
402 [54] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 0-1 -6.26 18.52 307
403 [47] Calhoun County 1 – A 0-1 -8.01 8.34 364
404 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-2 -8.80 21.16 296
405 [55] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-0 -10.46
406 [48] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 0-2 -10.92 14.66 336
407 [35] Pacelli 4 – A 0-2 -11.60 10.66 354
408 [56] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 0-2 -12.08 16.51 326
409 [36] Providence Christian 8 – A 0-1 -13.93 -0.57 385
410 [52] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-2 -14.03 4.08 375
411 [49] Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-1 -16.95 -8.03 392
412 [56] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-2 -18.11 14.69 335
413 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-2 -18.22 18.40 309
414 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 0-2 -18.47 20.74 298
415 [50] Stewart County 1 – A 0-1 -21.52 17.36 319
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 0-2 -23.29 7.92 366
417 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 0-0 -37.22
418 [3] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 0-2 -42.52 -16.60 396

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAAA 89.28 77.43
2 8 – AAAAAAA 89.10 64.62
3 6 – AAAAAAA 81.33 59.62
4 3 – AAAAAAA 80.41 66.10
5 1 – AAAAAA 78.94 69.06
6 4 – AAAAAAA 76.98 64.84
7 7 – AAAAAAA 76.17 52.98
8 5 – AAAA 75.92 50.12
9 5 – AAAAAA 72.28 55.38
10 7 – AAAAA 72.17 49.39
11 5 – AAAAAAA 71.35 57.38
12 4 – AAAAAA 70.99 48.96
13 4 – AAAAA 70.07 48.82
14 6 – AAAAAA 69.96 54.26
15 8 – AAAAA 67.97 36.35
16 2 – AA 65.04 31.93
17 2 – AAAAAA 64.72 50.99
18 7 – AAAA 64.24 44.16
19 5 – AAA 63.53 37.82
20 2 – AAAAAAA 63.16 48.76
21 1 – AAAAA 62.22 51.09
22 1 – AA 60.93 46.27
23 3 – AAAAA 59.58 40.94
24 8 – AAAAAA 59.05 45.45
25 8 – AAAA 58.95 43.48
26 4 – AAAA 58.14 31.75
27 2 – AAAA 58.09 44.26
28 7 – AAA 58.08 29.99
29 3 – AAAA 56.78 28.73
30 7 – AAAAAA 55.30 40.33
31 2 – AAAAA 55.25 37.92
32 5 – A 55.03 26.79
33 6 – AAA 54.21 23.82
6-South – AAA 57.89 39.02
6-North – AAA 25.45 8.27
34 4 – AAA 54.17 31.70
35 1 – AAAA 50.36 37.16
36 1 – AAA 50.11 39.13
37 5 – AA 50.01 32.77
38 6 – AAAA 49.61 30.32
39 2 – A 49.34 29.80
40 6 – AAAAA 48.50 33.22
41 6 – A 48.16 23.21
6-Div B – A 44.33 23.30
6-Div A – A 40.77 23.12
42 8 – A 46.95 21.57
43 4 – A 46.74 17.42
4-Div B – A 44.76 24.33
4-Div A – A 35.19 8.44
44 7 – A 46.40 26.86
7-Div A – A 42.52 27.01
7-Div B – A 39.66 26.70
45 3 – AA 46.17 32.15
46 6 – AA 46.04 28.22
47 5 – AAAAA 45.52 33.92
48 4 – AA 43.47 16.62
49 7 – AA 42.83 23.64
50 8 – AA 42.55 17.12
51 3 – AAAAAA 42.28 30.49
52 2 – AAA 41.54 29.42
53 3 – A 40.56 17.25
3-Div A – A 38.89 20.56
3-Div B – A 29.94 14.79
54 8 – AAA 37.42 24.02
55 3 – AAA 34.10 13.80
56 1 – A 28.46 8.55

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/18 Calhoun Douglass 17 – 14 33.21 96.5% 0.409
08/18 Fitzgerald Hapeville Charter 22 – 25 5.58 63.6% 0.421
08/25 Loganville Monroe Area 14 – 24 4.12 60.2% 0.429
08/18 Treutlen Georgia Military College 20 – 21 5.32 63.0% 0.431
08/18 Grady North Atlanta 7 – 21 3.39 58.4% 0.437
08/18 Cross Creek Butler 0 – 18 2.70 56.7% 0.446
08/18 Roswell South Forsyth 14 – 17 3.75 59.3% 0.449
08/18 Northside (Warner Robins) Warner Robins 17 – 28 1.70 54.2% 0.471
08/25 Lamar County Northeast 14 – 20 1.29 53.2% 0.481
08/25 Liberty County Bradwell Institute 7 – 22 1.00 52.5% 0.482
08/18 Carver (Columbus) Harris County 45 – 46 1.34 53.3% 0.485
08/18 Pebblebrook South Cobb 7 – 10 0.77 51.9% 0.490
08/25 Strong Rock Christian North Cobb Christian 17 – 20 0.60 51.5% 0.493
08/18 Turner County Dougherty 29 – 28 19.98 88.1% 0.498
08/25 Pierce County Bacon County 6 – 21 0.09 50.2% 0.498

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
88.19 10/27 Colquitt County Lowndes – 6.87 66.5%
86.70 08/19 Mill Creek McEachern 23 – 19 7.62 68.2%
86.49 09/01 Grayson McEachern – 16.45 83.8%
82.77 09/08 Mill Creek Archer – 11.97 76.8%
82.47 10/13 Grayson Archer – 19.74 87.8%
82.04 09/01 Colquitt County Tucker – 13.68 79.7%
80.74 08/19 Colquitt County Norcross 20 – 17 14.72 81.3%
79.70 08/18 Lowndes Valdosta 45 – 0 8.74 70.6%
79.65 09/08 Colquitt County Roswell – 15.89 83.0%
79.57 09/22 Colquitt County Valdosta – 15.96 83.1%
79.12 09/15 Archer Norcross – 2.43 56.1%
78.70 09/22 Archer Roswell – 2.53 56.3%
78.60 10/06 McEachern North Cobb – 7.97 68.9%
77.51 09/01 Lowndes Parkview – 11.05 75.1%
76.32 09/29 Norcross Parkview – 3.54 58.8%
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