Maxwell Week 11 Projections

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

Each game is listed showing the game rate, favorite, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, the projected margin, and the opponent.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.

Oct 27

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
52.14 AAAAAAA Newton 81.3% 15 Shiloh AAAAAAA
43.65 AAAA Carver (Columbus) 60.3% 4 Americus-Sumter AAAA
42.89 AAAA Chapel Hill 51.3% 1 LaGrange AAAA
33.41 AAAAAA Tucker 97.5% 34 Mount Zion (Jonesboro) AAAAAA
30.49 AAAAAA Drew 74.7% 11 Mundy’s Mill AAAAAA
26.64 AAA Crisp County 96.6% 32 Dougherty AAA
13.92 AA Benedictine 99.8% 41 Metter AA
5.20 AA Southwest 96.2% 31 East Laurens AA

Oct 28

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
81.59 AAAAAAA Colquitt County 63.2% 6 Lowndes AAAAAAA
74.46 AAAAAA Mays 56.0% 3 Alexander AAAAAA
73.49 AAAAAAA Norcross 82.6% 16 Brookwood AAAAAAA
70.40 AAAAAAA Archer 62.5% 5 South Gwinnett AAAAAAA
68.01 AAAAAAA Lassiter 53.6% 2 Cherokee AAAAAAA
67.74 AAAAAA Northside (Warner Robins) 84.1% 17 Houston County AAAAAA
66.96 AAAAAA Valdosta 90.2% 22 Coffee AAAAAA
65.85 AAAAAAA North Cobb 74.1% 11 Hillgrove AAAAAAA
65.82 AAAAAA Hughes 52.8% 1 Northgate AAAAAA
65.25 AAAAAAA Roswell 95.5% 30 Woodstock AAAAAAA
60.67 AAAAAAA Walton 51.3% 1 Etowah AAAAAAA
60.21 AAAAA Stockbridge 86.6% 19 Jones County AAAAA
58.50 AAAA Jefferson 55.9% 3 Stephens County AAAA
57.27 AAAAA Buford 89.3% 21 Loganville AAAAA
57.25 AAAA Sandy Creek 69.1% 8 Cedartown AAAA
56.53 AAAAAA Creekside 59.0% 4 Douglas County AAAAAA
56.19 AAAAAAA Lambert 71.8% 10 Milton AAAAAAA
55.17 AAAAAA Lanier 71.2% 9 Dacula AAAAAA
54.20 AAAAAAA West Forsyth 77.3% 12 North Forsyth AAAAAAA
54.02 AAAAAAA Westlake 78.1% 13 Wheeler AAAAAAA
53.19 AAAA Thomson 92.0% 24 Burke County AAAA
52.30 AAA Lovett 50.8% 1 Pace Academy AAA
51.06 AAAAAAA McEachern 96.7% 32 Marietta AAAAAAA
49.43 AAAAAA Harrison 94.8% 28 Sequoyah AAAAAA
48.98 AAAAAA Creekview 66.2% 7 Sprayberry AAAAAA
47.62 AAAAAAA North Gwinnett 90.8% 23 Collins Hill AAAAAAA
46.89 AAAAAA Richmond Hill 59.8% 4 Brunswick AAAAAA
46.84 A – Private Tattnall Square 76.2% 12 Stratford Academy A – Private
46.58 AAAAA Starr’s Mill 63.3% 6 Riverdale AAAAA
46.54 AAAAA Warner Robins 52.4% 1 Veterans AAAAA
44.92 AAAA West Laurens 56.8% 3 Upson-Lee AAAA
44.84 AAAAA Rome 94.0% 27 East Paulding AAAAA
44.74 AA Callaway 86.5% 19 Spencer AA
43.89 AAAA Oconee County 71.2% 9 Madison County AAAA
43.67 AAAAA Carrollton 92.1% 24 Paulding County AAAAA
43.52 AA Brooks County 78.7% 13 Thomasville AA
42.05 AAAAA Woodland (Stockbridge) 93.8% 27 Eagle’s Landing AAAAA
41.47 AAAAA Arabia Mountain 81.7% 15 Southwest DeKalb AAAAA
40.98 AAAAAAA Newnan 78.4% 13 Pebblebrook AAAAAAA
40.83 AA Toombs County 53.5% 2 Vidalia AA
40.25 AAAAA Whitewater 77.1% 12 Fayette County AAAAA
38.45 AAA Worth County 66.0% 7 Monroe AAA
38.36 AAAAA Bainbridge 81.0% 15 Harris County AAAAA
38.21 AAAAAA Winder-Barrow 53.4% 2 Habersham Central AAAAAA
38.08 AAA Peach County 89.4% 21 Pike County AAA
37.88 AAAAA Villa Rica 60.7% 5 Cass AAAAA
37.75 AAAAAAA North Paulding 94.9% 29 Kennesaw Mountain AAAAAAA
37.60 AAAAAA Lovejoy 84.1% 17 Jonesboro AAAAAA
37.45 AAAA Northside (Columbus) 53.9% 2 Westover AAAA
37.27 AAA Pierce County 72.8% 10 Appling County AAA
37.03 AAAAA Grady 96.2% 31 Riverwood AAAAA
36.95 AAA Liberty County 83.4% 16 Brantley County AAA
36.19 AAAAAA Centennial 91.3% 23 Pope AAAAAA
35.90 A – Private Mount Paran Christian 77.2% 12 Mount Pisgah Christian A – Private
35.72 AA Heard County 55.7% 3 Lamar County AA
35.71 AAA Westside (Macon) 64.1% 6 Central (Macon) AAA
35.35 AAAAAA Effingham County 87.9% 20 Bradwell Institute AAAAAA
35.32 AAAA Cairo 91.5% 24 Columbus AAAA
35.30 AAAAAA Evans 68.7% 8 Lakeside (Evans) AAAAAA
35.18 AAA Calhoun 93.5% 26 Bremen AAA
34.70 A – Private Athens Academy 65.5% 7 Commerce A – Public
34.39 A – Private Aquinas 50.7% 1 Lincoln County A – Public
33.05 AAAAAA Chattahoochee 68.2% 8 Northview AAAAAA
32.99 AAAAAAA South Forsyth 96.5% 32 Forsyth Central AAAAAAA
32.24 AAAA Mary Persons 94.0% 27 Perry AAAA
31.92 AAAAAA South Paulding 56.2% 3 Tri-Cities AAAAAA
31.91 AAAAAA Allatoona 96.1% 31 River Ridge AAAAAA
31.31 AAAAA Ware County 97.8% 35 Wayne County AAAAA
31.27 AAAAA Banneker 69.3% 8 North Springs AAAAA
30.80 AAAA Eastside 91.2% 23 Salem AAAA
30.29 AAAAA Clarke Central 85.0% 17 Walnut Grove AAAAA
29.36 AAA Morgan County 74.5% 11 Franklin County AAA
28.70 AAAA Marist 93.5% 26 Chestatee AAAA
27.53 AAA Dawson County 88.7% 21 Lumpkin County AAA
27.00 AAAAAA Stephenson 93.3% 26 M.L. King AAAAAA
26.86 A – Public Washington-Wilkes 76.4% 12 Warren County A – Public
26.84 AAAAAA Grovetown 63.1% 6 Greenbrier AAAAAA
25.91 AAAAAA Dalton 99.6% 41 South Cobb AAAAAA
25.64 A – Private Landmark Christian 94.4% 28 Holy Innocents A – Private
24.87 AAAAA Ola 92.9% 25 Union Grove AAAAA
24.69 A – Public Clinch County 95.3% 29 Charlton County A – Public
24.67 AAA North Hall 76.3% 12 East Hall AAA
24.44 AAAAAA Gainesville 92.0% 24 Apalachee AAAAAA
23.96 AAAAAAA Mountain View 98.8% 38 Discovery AAAAAAA
23.54 AAAAAA Johns Creek 96.9% 33 North Atlanta AAAAAA
23.28 AAAAAA Alpharetta 95.0% 29 Dunwoody AAAAAA
22.25 A – Public Trion 59.6% 4 Gordon Lee A – Public
22.24 AAAA West Hall 90.8% 23 White County AAAA
22.23 AA Hapeville Charter 88.9% 21 Therrell AA
22.13 A – Private Eagle’s Landing Christian 97.7% 35 Mount Vernon Presbyterian A – Private
21.86 AAAAAAA East Coweta 98.3% 37 Campbell AAAAAAA
21.77 AAAAA Dutchtown 94.1% 27 Hampton AAAAA
21.77 A – Private George Walton Academy 78.7% 13 Hebron Christian Academy A – Private
21.48 AAAA Troup 97.3% 34 Central (Carrollton) AAAA
20.97 A – Public Marion County 71.5% 9 Crawford County A – Public
20.86 AAAA Spalding 95.6% 30 Howard AAAA
19.96 A – Public Greene County 83.6% 16 Hancock Central A – Public
19.67 A – Public Dooly County 87.9% 20 Brookstone A – Private
18.75 AAA Westminster (Atlanta) 98.9% 39 Towers AAA
18.63 AA Fitzgerald 99.3% 40 Early County AA
18.29 AAAA St. Pius X 91.9% 24 North Oconee AAAA
18.19 A – Public Irwin County 93.6% 27 Atkinson County A – Public
18.13 AAA Tattnall County 66.9% 7 Long County AAA
17.77 A – Public Pelham 79.1% 13 Seminole County A – Public
16.95 AA B.E.S.T. Academy 74.7% 11 South Atlanta AA
16.87 AA Washington County 94.6% 28 Northeast AA
16.77 AA Swainsboro 63.5% 6 Jeff Davis AA
15.99 AAAAAA Heritage (Conyers) 92.9% 25 Alcovy AAAAAA
15.69 AA Elbert County 90.6% 23 Monticello AA
15.34 AAAAA Kell 99.5% 41 Woodland (Cartersville) AAAAA
15.22 AA Bacon County 60.9% 5 Bryan County AA
15.21 AA Model 93.3% 26 Coosa AA
15.18 A – Public Manchester 97.8% 36 Hawkinsville A – Public
14.46 AAAAA Maynard Jackson 75.9% 12 Decatur AAAAA
14.11 AAAA Richmond Academy 53.5% 2 Cross Creek AAAA
13.74 AAA Hart County 80.7% 14 Monroe Area AAA
13.60 AAA Jackson 96.9% 33 Kendrick AAA
13.47 AAAAA McIntosh 85.4% 18 Morrow AAAAA
13.44 AAAA Northwest Whitfield 94.4% 28 Southeast Whitfield AAAA
13.03 AA Berrien 81.1% 15 Albany AA
12.64 AA Banks County 60.3% 4 Putnam County AA
12.05 AA Temple 64.9% 6 Jordan AA
12.00 AAAA Woodward Academy 99.8% 41 Druid Hills AAAA
11.62 AAA Union County 91.0% 23 Fannin County AAA
11.02 A – Private First Presbyterian 92.1% 24 Mount de Sales A – Private
10.66 AAAAAAA Peachtree Ridge 99.6% 41 Duluth AAAAAAA
10.61 A – Public Twiggs County 98.2% 37 Wilkinson County A – Public
10.04 AAA Savannah 88.5% 20 Islands AAA
9.71 A – Public Treutlen 50.5% 1 Johnson County A – Public
9.21 AA Jefferson County 98.8% 39 Josey AA
8.91 AAA Adairsville 85.7% 18 Haralson County AAA
7.92 A – Public Randolph-Clay 84.3% 17 Chattahoochee County A – Public
7.79 AA Chattooga 94.1% 27 Dade County AA
7.71 AAA Jenkins 95.2% 29 Windsor Forest AAA
7.07 AAA Jackson County 81.9% 15 East Jackson AAA
6.56 AAAA Pickens 96.1% 31 LaFayette AAAA
6.22 A – Private Athens Christian 92.2% 24 Riverside Military Academy A – Private
6.18 A – Private Wesleyan 98.5% 38 Strong Rock Christian A – Private
6.02 A – Public Emanuel County Institute 97.6% 35 Jenkins County A – Public
5.76 AA Dodge County 95.3% 29 Bleckley County AA
5.50 A – Public Turner County 95.7% 30 Wilcox County A – Public
4.55 AAAA North Clayton 92.1% 24 Henry County AAAA
4.23 AAA Cedar Grove 99.5% 41 McNair AAA
4.22 AA Laney 92.2% 25 Harlem AA
3.81 A – Public Towns County 65.7% 7 Lakeview Academy A – Private
3.75 AAAA Ridgeland 98.9% 39 Gilmer AAAA
2.75 A – Public Montgomery County 61.6% 5 Georgia Military College A – Other
2.65 AA Screven County 96.5% 32 Glenn Hills AA
2.48 A – Public Telfair County 94.6% 28 Lanier County A – Public
2.35 A – Private Fellowship Christian 99.3% 40 King’s Ridge Christian A – Private
0.14 A – Public Mount Zion (Carroll) 99.3% 40 Christian Heritage A – Private
-0.69 AAAAAAA Parkview 99.9% 42 Meadowcreek AAAAAAA
-1.43 AAA Southeast Bulloch 94.2% 27 Beach AAA
-2.93 AA Pepperell 99.5% 41 Armuchee AA
-4.60 A – Private Walker 90.5% 22 Whitefield Academy A – Private
-5.38 AA Butler 74.8% 11 Westside (Augusta) AA
-6.17 A – Public Terrell County 95.8% 30 Calhoun County A – Public
-6.42 AAAAA Cedar Shoals 97.4% 34 Johnson (Gainesville) AAAAA
-7.06 A – Public Taylor County 99.4% 41 Greenville A – Public
-7.13 A – Private Prince Avenue Christian 99.6% 41 Providence Christian A – Private
-9.56 A – Public Macon County 99.9% 42 Central (Talbotton) A – Public
-9.82 AAA Groves 69.1% 8 Johnson (Savannah) AAA
-9.97 A – Public Schley County 89.4% 21 Pacelli A – Private
-11.46 AAA North Murray 97.2% 34 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe AAA
-12.46 A – Private Pinecrest Academy 99.3% 40 St. Francis A – Private
-14.96 A – Public Miller County 98.6% 38 Stewart County A – Public
-15.06 AA Rabun County 100.0% 42 Oglethorpe County AA
-15.09 A – Public Bowdon 99.5% 41 North Cobb Christian A – Private
-18.22 AAAAAAA Lakeside (Atlanta) 99.5% 41 Berkmar AAAAAAA
-20.23 AAAA Baldwin 99.1% 40 Hephzibah AAAA
-22.58 A – Public Mitchell County 99.6% 41 Baconton Charter A – Public
-24.50 AA Rockmart 99.8% 41 Gordon Central AA
-25.93 A – Private Our Lady of Mercy 98.8% 39 Fulton Leadership Academy A – Public
-26.44 AAA Ringgold 99.2% 40 Coahulla Creek AAA
-47.64 AAAAA Cross Keys 72.5% 10 Pataula Charter A – Other

Oct 29

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
43.97 A – Private Calvary Day 59.6% 4 McIntosh County Academy A – Public
30.79 AA K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 56.1% 3 Douglass AA
24.92 AAAA Hardaway 83.4% 16 Shaw AAAA
21.32 AAAAA Lithonia 60.3% 4 Miller Grove AAAAA
12.06 AAAAA Carver (Atlanta) 98.3% 37 Lithia Springs AAAAA
10.63 AAAAA Columbia 57.3% 3 Chamblee AAAAA
0.73 A – Private Savannah Country Day 86.9% 19 Claxton A – Public
-3.35 AAA Redan 93.3% 26 Stone Mountain AAA
-5.87 A – Private Savannah Christian 97.9% 36 Portal A – Public
-20.87 AAAAAA Forest Park 90.6% 23 Clarkston AAAAA

Oct 31

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
20.76 AAAAA New Hampstead 50.4% 1 South Effingham AAAAA

Nov 01

Game Rate Class Favorite Percent Margin Opponent Class
-10.65 AAA Southeast Bulloch 97.2% 34 Johnson (Savannah) AAA
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