Maxwell Week 10 Summary: Grayson powers past anemic Roswell

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia’s 421 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

– For the first time since Week 4, some team other than Roswell is at the top of the state’s ratings. Roswell needed a late touchdown to edge a middling Etowah team 17-14 while Grayson rolled past Newton 34-0. As a result, Grayson is elevated into the top spot in the ratings.

– Stockbridge topped Buford by 0.03 points in the Class AAAAA ratings, making this week the first time Buford has not sat atop its classification all year. While neither had a notable performance this weekend, Buford finally played it’s fifth GHSA opponent, allowing their preseason rating to more fully work it’s way out of their current rating.

– Macon County takes over the Class A Public schools again. The top spot has been hotly contested during the season with four different teams bubbling up at different times. Macon County has nearly a five point lead over the number two team, Clinch County, the largest such lead of the entire season.

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 2.19%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,522 of 1,647 total games including 7 tie(s) (92.62%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.82 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.05

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 7-1 96.38 1 Valdosta 7-1 87.12
2 Roswell 8-0 94.37 2 Northside (Warner Robins) 8-1 82.73
3 Mill Creek 9-0 90.77 3 Dalton 8-0 79.98
4 Norcross 8-0 86.08 4 Harrison 7-1 76.77
5 McEachern 7-1 84.64 5 Mays 7-1 75.15
6 Colquitt County 5-4 84.56 6 Alexander 8-0 73.82
7 Lowndes 8-1 80.33 7 Lee County 6-2 73.02
8 North Cobb 6-2 74.18 8 Glynn Academy 7-1 70.75
9 Archer 3-5 73.01 9 Tucker 7-1 69.82
10 Brookwood 6-2 71.56 10 Coffee 5-3 66.68
11 Parkview 5-3 71.10 11 Hughes 7-2 65.77
12 Lassiter 6-2 69.24 12 Northgate 7-1 65.73
13 South Gwinnett 6-2 68.94 13 Houston County 6-2 65.01
14 North Gwinnett 4-4 68.27 14 Allatoona 4-4 63.74
15 Tift County 5-4 68.02 15 Lanier 6-2 62.12
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Stockbridge 8-0 76.08 1 Cartersville 9-0 85.16
2 Buford 7-1 76.05 2 Thomson 8-0 76.10
3 Rome 6-2 70.49 3 Woodward Academy 8-1 73.09
4 Woodland (Stockbridge) 6-2 68.53 4 Sandy Creek 5-3 63.26
5 Grady 7-1 68.10 5 Jefferson 7-1 59.24
6 Ware County 4-3 68.08 6 Blessed Trinity 7-2 58.29
7 Carrollton 7-1 67.29 7 Mary Persons 6-2 58.02
8 Kell 6-2 66.64 8 Stephens County 7-1 57.83
9 Jones County 6-2 58.51 9 Troup 7-1 57.24
10 Griffin 8-1 57.85 10 Cairo 7-1 57.13
11 Thomas County Central 6-3 57.69 11 Marist 5-3 54.59
12 Loganville 7-1 55.86 12 Cedartown 5-3 54.10
13 Arabia Mountain 7-1 53.23 13 Burke County 7-1 52.69
14 Carver (Atlanta) 6-2 51.56 14 Eastside 5-2-1 52.00
15 Bainbridge 2-5 50.94 15 Oconee County 6-2 50.79
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 8-1 70.81 1 Benedictine 8-0 73.67
2 Westminster (Atlanta) 6-2 63.96 2 Fitzgerald 7-1 68.65
3 Crisp County 8-0 60.14 3 Rabun County 7-0 65.32
4 Calhoun 6-2 59.91 4 Callaway 8-0 60.59
5 Peach County 7-1 58.15 5 Brooks County 6-2 54.34
6 Cedar Grove 7-2 57.32 6 Jefferson County 8-0 52.52
7 Pace Academy 5-3 52.58 7 Pepperell 6-1 50.34
8 Lovett 5-3 51.77 8 Washington County 6-2 44.77
9 Liberty County 7-1 49.51 9 Spencer 6-2 43.13
10 Jackson 6-2 46.90 10 Thomasville 4-3 40.80
11 Dawson County 6-1 45.48 11 Toombs County 6-2 40.61
12 Pierce County 6-2 44.23 12 Hapeville Charter 5-3 40.50
13 Worth County 5-3 43.68 13 Vidalia 6-2 40.47
14 Sonoraville 6-3 40.65 14 Model 6-2 39.68
15 Cook 4-5 40.13 15 Rockmart 6-2 38.18
A – Public A – Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 6-2 58.81 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 8-0 58.44
2 Clinch County 7-1 53.88 2 Tattnall Square 8-0 55.86
3 Manchester 8-0 53.23 3 Landmark Christian 8-0 53.20
4 Twiggs County 6-2 50.03 4 Fellowship Christian 8-0 52.15
5 Mount Zion (Carroll) 8-0 49.42 5 Wesleyan 6-2 48.28
6 Taylor County 7-1 43.72 6 Prince Avenue Christian 8-0 47.56
7 Irwin County 5-3 42.97 7 Mount Paran Christian 7-1 45.87
8 Emanuel County Institute 8-0 41.88 8 Darlington 7-2 44.50
9 McIntosh County Academy 5-1 40.94 9 Calvary Day 6-0 44.45
10 Bowdon 5-3 37.78 10 Stratford Academy 6-2 43.11
11 Dooly County 4-4 36.79 11 Athens Academy 8-0 38.13
12 Turner County 5-3 35.96 12 Pinecrest Academy 5-3 36.68
13 Washington-Wilkes 3-5 34.80 13 First Presbyterian 5-3 34.15
14 Lincoln County 5-2-1 34.08 14 Aquinas 5-3 33.14
15 Greene County 5-3 33.73 15 Mount Pisgah Christian 5-2 32.56

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 7-1 96.38 61.07 21
2 [2] Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 8-0 94.37 66.05 10
3 [3] Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 9-0 90.77 59.95 26
4 [1] Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 7-1 87.12 70.38 3
5 [4] Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 8-0 86.08 54.29 48
6 [1] Cartersville 5 – AAAA 9-0 85.16 51.23 64
7 [5] McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 7-1 84.64 62.28 15
8 [6] Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 5-4 84.56 76.55 2
9 [2] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 8-1 82.73 58.69 32
10 [7] Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 8-1 80.33 61.58 19
11 [3] Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 8-0 79.98 48.93 82
12 [4] Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 7-1 76.77 55.04 45
13 [2] Thomson 3 – AAAA 8-0 76.10 26.67 285
14 [1] Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 8-0 76.08 50.98 65
15 [2] Buford 8 – AAAAA 7-1 76.05 34.74 204
16 [5] Mays 5 – AAAAAA 7-1 75.15 52.78 54
17 [8] North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 6-2 74.18 63.20 14
18 [6] Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 8-0 73.82 50.29 71
19 [1] Benedictine 2 – AA 8-0 73.67 31.36 229
20 [3] Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 8-1 73.09 41.19 136
21 [7] Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 6-2 73.02 58.92 30
22 [9] Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 3-5 73.01 80.23 1
23 [10] Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 6-2 71.56 58.88 31
24 [11] Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 5-3 71.10 61.82 17
25 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 8-1 70.81 34.25 207
26 [8] Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 7-1 70.75 50.42 70
27 [3] Rome 7 – AAAAA 6-2 70.49 49.05 79
28 [9] Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 7-1 69.82 41.93 126
29 [12] Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 6-2 69.24 60.92 22
30 [13] South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 6-2 68.94 58.37 34
31 [2] Fitzgerald 1 – AA 7-1 68.65 42.37 120
32 [4] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 6-2 68.53 47.67 89
33 [14] North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 4-4 68.27 66.74 7
34 [5] Grady 6 – AAAAA 7-1 68.10 32.08 223
35 [6] Ware County 2 – AAAAA 4-3 68.08 64.06 13
36 [15] Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 5-4 68.02 68.59 5
37 [7] Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 7-1 67.29 46.50 94
38 [16] Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 7-2 66.78 49.21 76
39 [10] Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 5-3 66.68 62.22 16
40 [17] Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 5-3 66.67 61.47 20
41 [8] Kell 7 – AAAAA 6-2 66.64 54.83 46
42 [18] Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 3-5 66.10 68.12 6
43 [19] South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 5-3 65.79 58.38 33
44 [11] Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 7-2 65.77 49.45 75
45 [12] Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 7-1 65.73 46.28 95
46 [20] North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 5-3 65.39 59.75 27
47 [3] Rabun County 8 – AA 7-0 65.32 24.87 305
48 [13] Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 6-2 65.01 55.21 44
49 [21] Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 5-3 64.83 58.36 35
50 [2] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 6-2 63.96 50.63 69
51 [14] Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 4-4 63.74 59.66 28
52 [22] Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 4-3-1 63.69 64.58 11
53 [23] Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 5-3 63.48 57.40 39
54 [24] Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 5-3 63.37 59.58 29
55 [4] Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 5-3 63.26 51.41 63
56 [25] West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 6-2 63.16 54.30 47
57 [26] East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 6-2 62.81 49.68 73
58 [27] Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 5-3 62.55 57.60 37
59 [15] Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 6-2 62.12 46.14 96
60 [28] Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 4-4 60.83 61.79 18
61 [4] Callaway 5 – AA 8-0 60.59 35.19 200
62 [29] Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 3-5 60.28 66.49 8
63 [3] Crisp County 1 – AAA 8-0 60.14 38.26 163
64 [4] Calhoun 6 – AAA 6-2 59.91 30.06 243
65 [5] Jefferson 8 – AAAA 7-1 59.24 37.49 176
66 [1] Macon County 4 – A 6-2 58.81 37.57 175
67 [9] Jones County 4 – AAAAA 6-2 58.51 45.67 99
68 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 8-0 58.44 23.92 313
69 [6] Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 7-2 58.29 39.24 147
70 [5] Peach County 4 – AAA 7-1 58.15 37.70 171
71 [7] Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 6-2 58.02 45.07 103
72 [16] Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 4-4 57.99 56.29 42
73 [17] Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 6-2 57.91 47.77 88
74 [10] Griffin 3 – AAAAA 8-1 57.85 38.49 157
75 [8] Stephens County 8 – AAAA 7-1 57.83 38.58 153
76 [11] Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 6-3 57.69 51.69 60
77 [18] Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 7-2 57.48 43.84 111
78 [6] Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 7-2 57.32 33.66 210
79 [9] Troup 5 – AAAA 7-1 57.24 41.20 135
80 [10] Cairo 1 – AAAA 7-1 57.13 41.89 127
81 [19] Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 5-2 56.21 49.14 78
82 [2] Tattnall Square 7 – A 8-0 55.86 14.65 378
83 [12] Loganville 8 – AAAAA 7-1 55.86 35.59 197
84 [20] Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 5-3 55.50 43.97 110
85 [11] Marist 7 – AAAA 5-3 54.59 47.77 87
86 [5] Brooks County 1 – AA 6-2 54.34 42.36 121
87 [12] Cedartown 5 – AAAA 5-3 54.10 42.72 118
88 [2] Clinch County 2 – A 7-1 53.88 24.93 304
89 [21] Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 4-4 53.86 53.68 51
90 [3] Manchester 4 – A 8-0 53.23 12.87 387
91 [13] Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 7-1 53.23 21.71 328
92 [3] Landmark Christian 5 – A 8-0 53.20 20.96 331
93 [30] Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 3-5 52.93 60.45 24
94 [13] Burke County 3 – AAAA 7-1 52.69 27.47 275
95 [7] Pace Academy 5 – AAA 5-3 52.58 45.23 101
96 [6] Jefferson County 4 – AA 8-0 52.52 15.74 367
97 [22] Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 5-3 52.51 43.20 115
98 [31] Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-6 52.44 70.17 4
99 [4] Fellowship Christian 6 – A 8-0 52.15 18.94 349
100 [23] Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 5-3 52.11 44.77 106
101 [14] Eastside 4 – AAAA 5-2-1 52.00 40.26 139
102 [32] North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 4-4 51.96 54.24 49
103 [24] Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 4-4 51.92 52.82 53
104 [33] Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 4-4 51.82 50.93 66
105 [8] Lovett 5 – AAA 5-3 51.77 39.61 142
106 [14] Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 6-2 51.56 36.70 187
107 [25] Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 5-4 51.30 47.89 86
108 [26] Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 3-4 50.99 49.03 80
109 [15] Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 2-5 50.94 52.31 57
110 [15] Oconee County 8 – AAAA 6-2 50.79 38.35 159
111 [34] Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 4-5 50.69 53.68 50
112 [35] Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 3-5 50.60 52.60 55
113 [16] Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 6-3 50.59 41.24 134
114 [7] Pepperell 7 – AA 6-1 50.34 27.71 272
115 [16] Spalding 2 – AAAA 4-4 50.28 47.98 85
116 [36] Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 2-6 50.06 66.39 9
117 [4] Twiggs County 7 – A 6-2 50.03 33.39 211
118 [37] Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 3-5 49.76 52.52 56
119 [9] Liberty County 2 – AAA 7-1 49.51 26.65 287
120 [5] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 8-0 49.42 19.98 339
121 [17] Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 4-4 49.35 48.72 83
122 [18] Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 6-2 49.09 36.65 189
123 [27] Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 5-4 49.05 45.13 102
124 [28] Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 3-5 48.86 56.26 43
125 [19] Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 4-4 48.61 44.74 107
126 [20] Ola 4 – AAAAA 4-4 48.50 51.47 62
127 [5] Wesleyan 5 – A 6-2 48.28 30.99 234
128 [29] Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 6-1 48.07 32.33 219
129 [30] Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 4-4 47.89 47.34 91
130 [17] Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 6-1 47.77 31.24 232
131 [6] Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 8-0 47.56 20.58 334
132 [18] West Laurens 2 – AAAA 5-3 47.00 37.86 168
133 [10] Jackson 4 – AAA 6-2 46.90 31.37 228
134 [21] Veterans 1 – AAAAA 5-4 46.68 44.70 108
135 [22] Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 2-6 46.58 57.49 38
136 [38] Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 2-6 46.41 57.60 36
137 [31] Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 5-3 46.05 39.56 144
138 [7] Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 7-1 45.87 16.64 363
139 [19] Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 4-4 45.59 40.82 137
140 [11] Dawson County 7 – AAA 6-1 45.48 28.81 262
141 [23] Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 6-2 45.00 32.49 217
142 [8] Washington County 3 – AA 6-2 44.77 33.38 212
143 [24] Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 5-4 44.63 38.44 158
144 [8] Darlington 6 – A 7-2 44.50 28.14 267
145 [9] Calvary Day 3 – A 6-0 44.45 7.15 411
146 [12] Pierce County 2 – AAA 6-2 44.23 26.89 284
147 [25] East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 3-5 44.17 52.13 58
148 [6] Taylor County 4 – A 7-1 43.72 16.35 365
149 [13] Worth County 1 – AAA 5-3 43.68 37.65 173
150 [20] Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 3-4-1 43.56 47.63 90
151 [9] Spencer 5 – AA 6-2 43.13 29.73 250
152 [21] Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 5-3 43.13 36.12 192
153 [10] Stratford Academy 7 – A 6-2 43.11 27.03 281
154 [7] Irwin County 2 – A 5-3 42.97 32.10 221
155 [22] West Hall 7 – AAAA 5-3 42.70 38.00 166
156 [23] Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 4-4 42.52 44.62 109
157 [24] LaGrange 5 – AAAA 2-7 41.96 56.90 40
158 [8] Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 8-0 41.88 7.82 407
159 [26] Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 4-4 41.58 44.97 104
160 [25] St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-8 41.53 60.73 23
161 [9] McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 5-1 40.94 21.99 324
162 [10] Thomasville 1 – AA 4-3 40.80 35.95 193
163 [14] Sonoraville 6 – AAA 6-3 40.65 32.07 224
164 [11] Toombs County 2 – AA 6-2 40.61 22.98 318
165 [27] Hiram 7 – AAAAA 4-5 40.60 42.18 122
166 [26] Madison County 8 – AAAA 6-2 40.54 29.78 248
167 [12] Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 5-3 40.50 36.20 191
168 [13] Vidalia 2 – AA 6-2 40.47 28.47 266
169 [28] Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 2-7 40.16 51.68 61
170 [15] Cook 1 – AAA 4-5 40.13 43.32 114
171 [27] Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 6-3 39.89 28.49 264
172 [29] Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 4-5 39.85 45.58 100
173 [16] Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 4-4 39.82 37.41 179
174 [32] Evans 3 – AAAAAA 6-2 39.72 24.30 309
175 [14] Model 7 – AA 6-2 39.68 24.71 307
176 [30] Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 5-3 39.33 33.04 214
177 [28] Hardaway 1 – AAAA 4-3 39.23 42.76 117
178 [33] Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 4-4 39.15 37.64 174
179 [39] Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 4-4 38.79 38.32 160
180 [29] Pickens 6 – AAAA 4-4 38.37 36.66 188
181 [34] Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 4-4 38.19 38.57 154
182 [15] Rockmart 7 – AA 6-2 38.18 22.91 320
183 [11] Athens Academy 8 – A 8-0 38.13 12.76 389
184 [17] Morgan County 8 – AAA 6-2 38.08 22.27 322
185 [35] Drew 4 – AAAAAA 2-6 38.02 51.75 59
186 [31] Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 4-3-1 38.02 35.91 194
187 [36] Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 4-4 37.94 38.94 151
188 [10] Bowdon 6 – A 5-3 37.78 29.71 251
189 [30] Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 5-3 37.71 32.13 220
190 [37] Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 4-4 37.54 39.20 149
191 [32] Banneker 6 – AAAAA 5-3 37.36 29.54 253
192 [31] Westover 1 – AAAA 4-4 37.27 37.11 182
193 [40] Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 2-6 37.19 49.16 77
194 [16] Elbert County 8 – AA 5-2-1 36.91 23.39 317
195 [11] Dooly County 4 – A 4-4 36.79 35.40 199
196 [33] Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 4-4 36.74 35.18 201
197 [12] Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 5-3 36.68 29.00 260
198 [34] Cass 7 – AAAAA 3-5 36.60 42.03 124
199 [17] Heard County 5 – AA 6-2 36.34 20.48 336
200 [18] Southwest 3 – AA 4-4 36.07 38.62 152
201 [18] Jenkins 3 – AAA 6-1 35.97 18.67 351
202 [12] Turner County 2 – A 5-3 35.96 31.38 227
203 [38] Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 2-6 35.69 49.49 74
204 [19] Monroe 1 – AAA 2-4 35.68 42.64 119
205 [20] Pike County 4 – AAA 5-3 35.55 31.23 233
206 [35] Harris County 1 – AAAAA 3-5 35.33 41.46 131
207 [19] Lamar County 5 – AA 4-4 35.19 38.14 165
208 [39] Pope 7 – AAAAAA 2-6 35.07 47.31 92
209 [20] Chattooga 7 – AA 5-3 34.82 27.59 273
210 [13] Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 3-5 34.80 38.19 164
211 [21] Bremen 6 – AAA 5-3 34.42 23.61 315
212 [32] Luella 4 – AAAA 4-5 34.41 39.83 140
213 [33] Columbus 1 – AAAA 3-5 34.33 37.69 172
214 [13] First Presbyterian 7 – A 5-3 34.15 27.34 277
215 [21] Dodge County 3 – AA 4-5 34.11 33.70 209
216 [22] Brantley County 2 – AAA 5-2 34.09 26.67 286
217 [14] Lincoln County 7 – A 5-2-1 34.08 29.73 249
218 [22] Screven County 4 – AA 7-1 34.05 7.47 409
219 [40] South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 1-7 33.74 59.97 25
220 [41] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 4-4 33.73 39.76 141
221 [15] Greene County 7 – A 5-3 33.73 29.90 245
222 [23] Appling County 2 – AAA 4-3 33.57 31.77 225
223 [24] Union County 7 – AAA 6-2 33.56 29.20 256
224 [14] Aquinas 7 – A 5-3 33.14 29.79 247
225 [25] North Hall 7 – AAA 5-4 32.94 32.08 222
226 [26] Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 6-3 32.93 26.28 289
227 [16] Commerce 8 – A 6-2 32.76 13.09 385
228 [42] Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 2-7 32.61 53.54 52
229 [15] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 5-2 32.56 15.33 372
230 [23] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 7-1 32.52 17.14 360
231 [41] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 3-5 32.24 39.59 143
232 [24] Dublin 3 – AA 7-2 31.97 20.53 335
233 [16] Savannah Christian 3 – A 4-2 31.82 22.97 319
234 [36] Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 2-6 31.76 44.89 105
235 [34] Perry 2 – AAAA 3-5 31.66 37.20 181
236 [43] Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 3-4 31.60 36.86 185
237 [42] Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 3-5 31.46 36.96 184
238 [17] George Walton Academy 8 – A 6-2 31.38 12.11 391
239 [43] Northview 7 – AAAAAA 2-6 31.05 46.60 93
240 [17] Mitchell County 1 – A 7-1 30.78 11.28 395
241 [44] River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 2-6 30.45 45.95 97
242 [18] Telfair County 2 – A 4-3 30.30 27.35 276
243 [45] Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-8 30.17 64.50 12
244 [18] Athens Christian 8 – A 5-3 29.71 20.37 337
245 [37] Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 3-6 29.60 37.84 169
246 [35] Salem 4 – AAAA 5-3 29.56 25.30 298
247 [38] McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 3-5 29.28 35.53 198
248 [46] Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 3-5 29.11 33.04 213
249 [19] Pelham 1 – A 7-1 29.03 6.82 412
250 [25] Douglass 6 – AA 5-3 29.00 21.84 326
251 [39] Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 3-5 28.42 37.43 178
252 [40] Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 3-5 28.30 34.72 205
253 [47] Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 2-7 28.26 41.88 128
254 [41] North Springs 6 – AAAAA 4-4 28.09 28.56 263
255 [27] Savannah 3 – AAA 5-2 28.01 13.16 383
256 [20] Marion County 4 – A 6-2 28.01 8.92 404
257 [36] North Clayton 4 – AAAA 4-4 26.94 29.46 254
258 [37] Chestatee 7 – AAAA 4-5 26.75 30.82 236
259 [21] Miller County 1 – A 6-2 26.62 14.54 379
260 [38] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 6-3 26.60 13.17 381
261 [26] Laney 4 – AA 3-5 26.42 29.01 259
262 [48] South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-7 26.26 50.23 72
263 [49] Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 2-3-1 26.13 30.15 242
264 [50] New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 0-9 26.09 56.78 41
265 [39] Baldwin 3 – AAAA 3-5 26.08 39.03 150
266 [28] Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 4-4 26.01 27.14 280
267 [29] Franklin County 8 – AAA 3-5 25.92 30.52 237
268 [30] Dougherty 1 – AAA 2-6 25.58 35.75 195
269 [27] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 2-7 25.53 37.11 183
270 [51] M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 2-6 25.07 38.30 161
271 [31] Hart County 8 – AAA 1-6-1 24.81 42.07 123
272 [28] Berrien 1 – AA 3-4 24.73 32.52 216
273 [52] Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 5-3 24.59 17.76 357
274 [42] Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 3-5 24.20 28.11 268
275 [44] Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 2-6 24.03 42.98 116
276 [19] Holy Innocents 5 – A 4-4 23.92 23.93 312
277 [43] Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-6-1 23.92 45.79 98
278 [32] Adairsville 6 – AAA 2-6 23.91 37.44 177
279 [22] Trion 6 – A 4-4 23.88 20.92 332
280 [33] North Murray 6 – AAA 5-3 23.73 14.87 376
281 [34] Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 3-4 23.67 25.20 300
282 [23] Terrell County 1 – A 5-3 23.60 16.93 361
283 [24] Warren County 7 – A 4-4 23.26 24.85 306
284 [25] Randolph-Clay 1 – A 6-2 22.98 9.54 402
285 [26] Charlton County 2 – A 2-5 22.75 28.99 261
286 [44] Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 2-6 22.61 37.35 180
287 [35] East Hall 7 – AAA 2-6 22.34 31.57 226
288 [53] North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 1-7 22.23 41.34 132
289 [54] Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 2-5-1 22.19 32.41 218
290 [36] Redan 5 – AAA 2-6 22.13 40.70 138
291 [20] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 5-3 22.09 13.14 384
292 [40] Shaw 1 – AAAA 1-7 21.94 39.51 145
293 [37] Ringgold 6 – AAA 4-4 21.91 22.36 321
294 [45] South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-8 21.73 50.80 67
295 [55] Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 2-6 21.61 34.51 206
296 [38] Tattnall County 2 – AAA 3-5 21.54 25.76 295
297 [27] Gordon Lee 6 – A 5-3 21.12 10.81 396
298 [41] White County 7 – AAAA 1-7 20.98 38.49 156
299 [45] Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-8 20.87 48.99 81
300 [29] Therrell 6 – AA 3-5 20.75 25.90 294
301 [42] Howard 2 – AAAA 1-7 20.42 36.81 186
302 [43] Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-8 20.28 43.84 112
303 [30] Washington 6 – AA 3-6 20.18 31.25 231
304 [46] Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-7 19.95 48.33 84
305 [39] Jackson County 8 – AAA 3-5 19.95 25.66 296
306 [31] Swainsboro 2 – AA 2-6 19.51 33.97 208
307 [21] Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 5-3 19.42 13.78 380
308 [47] New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 2-5-1 19.39 26.06 293
309 [48] Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 3-5 18.91 24.09 310
310 [32] Early County 1 – AA 0-7-1 18.26 39.23 148
311 [22] Brookstone 4 – A 4-4 18.01 18.38 355
312 [40] Towers 5 – AAA 3-5 17.82 24.47 308
313 [28] Crawford County 4 – A 4-3 17.65 19.58 343
314 [41] Rutland 4 – AAA 2-7 17.52 35.08 203
315 [42] Murray County 6 – AAA 6-3 17.38 7.65 408
316 [23] Savannah Country Day 3 – A 4-2 17.36 8.64 406
317 [33] Bacon County 2 – AA 1-6 17.15 35.59 196
318 [29] Atkinson County 2 – A 2-6 17.15 32.59 215
319 [24] Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 2-6 16.98 43.44 113
320 [30] Hancock Central 7 – A 3-5 16.27 21.63 329
321 [44] North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-8 16.05 41.29 133
322 [49] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-8 15.62 41.77 130
323 [25] Walker 6 – A 2-6 15.60 29.93 244
324 [34] Banks County 8 – AA 4-4 15.40 15.13 375
325 [35] Temple 5 – AA 5-3 15.35 15.23 374
326 [36] Northeast 3 – AA 1-7 15.10 31.25 230
327 [37] Jeff Davis 2 – AA 2-5 14.96 25.09 303
328 [45] Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 3-4 14.86 16.70 362
329 [31] Seminole County 1 – A 4-3-1 14.65 8.72 405
330 [56] Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 4-4 14.63 19.87 340
331 [50] Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-8 14.47 41.95 125
332 [38] Coosa 7 – AA 3-5 14.39 25.15 301
333 [39] Metter 2 – AA 2-5 14.29 24.07 311
334 [32] Hawkinsville 4 – A 3-5 13.96 25.14 302
335 [40] Bryan County 2 – AA 2-5 13.65 26.19 292
336 [41] South Atlanta 6 – AA 2-7 13.60 25.28 299
337 [43] Long County 2 – AAA 1-4-2 13.59 26.19 290
338 [44] Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-8 13.44 38.29 162
339 [42] Monticello 8 – AA 3-5 13.09 20.74 333
340 [46] Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 5-3 12.80 5.50 414
341 [51] Columbia 5 – AAAAA 2-6 12.67 28.49 265
342 [47] Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 4-4 12.29 11.90 394
343 [52] Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-7 12.20 29.59 252
344 [53] Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 1-7 12.13 36.28 190
345 [48] Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 3-5 11.18 19.70 342
346 [43] Albany 1 – AA 0-8 11.13 38.57 155
347 [45] Monroe Area 8 – AAA 2-6 11.03 26.39 288
348 [54] Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-8 10.52 41.80 129
349 [44] Jordan 5 – AA 0-8 10.33 37.92 167
350 [33] Wheeler County 3 – A 6-3 10.23 2.87 416
351 [34] Johnson County 3 – A 4-4 9.79 9.83 401
352 [45] Putnam County 8 – AA 1-7 9.77 26.94 282
353 [46] Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 2-6 9.64 29.03 258
354 [46] Fannin County 7 – AAA 2-6 9.35 30.21 240
355 [35] Wilkinson County 7 – A 1-7 9.25 27.32 278
356 [36] Treutlen 3 – A 4-4 9.20 9.85 400
357 [37] Schley County 4 – A 2-6 8.88 23.57 316
358 [55] Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 1-7 8.65 30.20 241
359 [26] Mount de Sales 7 – A 2-6 8.64 29.06 257
360 [38] Towns County 8 – A 2-6 8.39 29.82 246
361 [46] Josey 4 – AA 4-4 7.78 7.22 410
362 [57] Osborne 6 – AAAAAA† 1-7 7.40 35.09 202
363 [47] Haralson County 6 – AAA 2-6 7.03 27.86 271
364 [47] Dade County 7 – AA 2-6 6.04 26.92 283
365 [48] Islands 3 – AAA 3-4 5.98 11.97 393
366 [39] Jenkins County 3 – A 4-4 5.95 5.56 413
367 [27] Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 3-5 5.18 19.53 345
368 [48] Bleckley County 3 – AA 2-6 5.17 19.83 341
369 [49] LaFayette 6 – AAAA 2-6 5.15 20.36 338
370 [40] Chattahoochee County 1 – A 2-6 5.03 18.56 353
371 [41] Montgomery County 3 – A 2-6 4.92 18.04 356
372 [49] Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 4-3 4.76 4.00 415
373 [49] East Laurens 3 – AA 1-7 4.72 29.40 255
374 [50] McNair 5 – AAA 3-5 4.54 14.72 377
375 [28] Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 2-6 4.04 22.02 323
376 [50] Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-8 3.94 30.94 235
377 [42] Wilcox County 2 – A 1-7 3.74 27.51 274
378 [51] East Jackson 8 – AAA 2-6 3.70 17.33 359
379 [51] Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-8 3.35 39.40 146
380 [50] Butler 4 – AA 2-6 2.78 17.57 358
381 [51] Harlem 4 – AA 2-6 2.72 15.55 369
382 [52] Glenn Hills 4 – AA 3-5 1.92 12.88 386
383 [29] King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 3-5 1.55 10.78 397
384 [1] Georgia Military College 7 – A† 4-4 1.32 -0.86 418
385 [30] Lakeview Academy 8 – A 1-7 0.74 26.19 291
386 [58] Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA† 1-8 0.49 25.32 297
387 [43] Lanier County 2 – A 1-7 0.39 23.67 314
388 [47] Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 1-7 -0.55 27.26 279
389 [31] Christian Heritage 6 – A 1-7 -0.67 21.91 325
390 [44] Claxton 3 – A 0-6 -1.00 30.29 239
391 [52] Beach 3 – AAA 2-6 -3.22 12.02 392
392 [53] Armuchee 7 – AA 2-6 -3.70 15.49 370
393 [54] Social Circle 8 – AA 2-7 -3.86 15.71 368
394 [53] Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 1-8 -5.26 37.71 170
395 [45] Portal 3 – A 0-6 -5.57 19.57 344
396 [54] Groves 3 – AAA 1-7 -5.72 13.17 382
397 [32] Whitefield Academy 6 – A 2-6 -5.81 28.02 270
398 [46] Calhoun County 1 – A 1-7 -6.48 16.33 366
399 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-8 -6.75 30.37 238
400 [47] Greenville 4 – A 1-7 -6.84 28.04 269
401 [33] Providence Christian 8 – A 1-7 -8.01 19.33 347
402 [55] Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 1-7 -9.14 15.36 371
403 [48] Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 1-7 -9.23 18.65 352
404 [34] Pacelli 4 – A 1-7 -11.45 19.35 346
405 [55] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 1-7 -12.68 15.29 373
406 [56] Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-6 -13.02 16.62 364
407 [35] St. Francis 6 – A 1-7 -13.27 18.53 354
408 [49] Stewart County 1 – A 2-6 -14.74 12.16 390
409 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-8 -14.86 10.31 398
410 [36] North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-8 -15.88 18.80 350
411 [48] Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-9 -18.22 50.64 68
412 [52] Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-8 -20.39 10.18 399
413 [50] Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-7 -22.19 12.77 388
414 [57] Clarkston 5 – AAAAA† 1-7 -23.18 9.53 403
415 [57] Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-8 -24.13 19.04 348
416 [2] Glascock County 7 – A† 2-5 -24.67 -8.69 419
417 [51] Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-8 -25.85 21.77 327
418 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-8 -27.30 21.22 330
419 [58] Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA† 1-4 -40.10 -15.75 420
420 [3] Webster County 1 – A† 0-0 -40.95 0.00 417
421 [4] Pataula Charter 1 – A† 0-3 -50.89 -29.16 421

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAA 91.01 74.79
2 1 – AAAAAAA 89.37 72.01
3 8 – AAAAAAA 86.58 64.29
4 4 – AAAAAAA 86.52 67.97
5 3 – AAAAAAA 82.18 62.80
6 6 – AAAAAAA 80.42 56.58
7 7 – AAAAAAA 78.60 49.18
8 5 – AAAAAA 75.47 55.49
9 5 – AAAA 73.65 52.09
10 6 – AAAAAA 73.46 53.08
11 5 – AAAAAAA 72.05 55.83
12 4 – AAAAA 69.53 48.81
13 2 – AAAAAA 69.41 51.10
14 7 – AAAAA 68.24 46.64
15 2 – AAAAAAA 67.22 49.38
16 8 – AAAA 63.21 45.79
17 1 – AAAAA 62.81 47.54
18 8 – AAAAA 62.15 36.59
19 8 – AAAAAA 61.39 43.62
20 5 – AAA 61.07 34.70
21 1 – AA 60.75 34.84
22 7 – AAAA 60.47 41.00
23 3 – AAAA 60.26 24.39
24 2 – AAAA 59.64 42.40
25 7 – AAAAAA 59.28 40.52
26 3 – AAAAA 58.81 41.31
27 4 – AAAAAA 58.46 40.45
28 1 – AAA 58.37 40.62
29 4 – AAAA 57.48 31.05
30 1 – AAAA 55.63 39.44
31 6 – AAAAA 55.20 32.19
32 7 – AAA 55.18 32.51
33 5 – AA 54.33 33.54
34 4 – AAA 54.16 35.08
35 2 – AAAAA 53.65 27.14
36 5 – A 53.62 26.62
37 2 – AAA 50.72 33.02
38 2 – AA 50.59 25.68
39 7 – A 47.84 31.63
7 – Div A – A 55.82 35.19
7 – Div B – A 40.69 29.47
40 6 – A 47.37 23.60
6 – Div A – A 47.63 25.45
6 – Div B – A 47.12 21.66
41 2 – A 47.27 26.03
42 4 – A 47.01 20.27
4 – Div B – A 52.21 28.92
4 – Div A – A 38.78 8.90
43 6 – AAAA 46.07 25.12
44 7 – AA 45.79 21.83
45 3 – AAAAAA 45.72 29.99
46 3 – AA 44.27 25.17
47 6 – AAA 43.51 20.75
6 – South – AAA 54.57 33.14
6 – North – AAA 28.37 7.82
48 8 – AA 43.21 14.07
49 8 – A 41.84 20.96
50 6 – AA 41.81 25.90
51 5 – AAAAA 40.76 24.72
52 3 – A 39.26 15.91
3 – Div A – A 44.63 22.49
3 – Div B – A 31.20 11.73
53 4 – AA 37.87 12.26
54 8 – AAA 37.74 20.62
55 3 – AAA 30.82 8.63
56 1 – A 29.90 13.15

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/16 Salem Chamblee 0 – 6 21.96 90.0% 0.163
08/19 Troup Hardaway 14 – 21 16.96 84.5% 0.222
08/26 Cedar Grove Southwest DeKalb 20 – 21 19.04 87.0% 0.223
08/18 Towers Forest Park 2 – 6 16.28 83.6% 0.245
09/03 Colquitt County Tucker 20 – 21 15.78 82.9% 0.268
09/02 West Laurens Dodge County 0 – 3 13.93 80.1% 0.285
08/26 West Forsyth Pace Academy 10 – 20 11.63 76.2% 0.294
08/26 Wheeler County Georgia Military College 20 – 41 9.96 73.0% 0.296
08/26 Veterans Dublin 20 – 21 13.67 79.7% 0.300
09/09 Long County Windsor Forest 15 – 25 9.87 72.9% 0.325
09/01 K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate North Atlanta 10 – 13 11.34 75.7% 0.326
09/02 Cherokee Creekview 34 – 35 11.76 76.4% 0.330
09/02 Jackson Lamar County 10 – 13 10.66 74.4% 0.338
10/14 Thomas County Central Veterans 28 – 33 9.95 73.0% 0.341
09/16 North Hall White County 23 – 24 10.91 74.9% 0.343

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
87.80 09/02 Grayson McEachern 16 – 13 10.70 74.5%
86.72 08/20 Mill Creek Colquitt County 34 – 27 6.21 65.1%
86.68 09/09 Roswell Colquitt County 34 – 3 10.86 74.8%
85.52 09/23 Valdosta Colquitt County 24 – 45 3.61 58.9%
84.20 10/07 Valdosta Northside (Warner Robins) 14 – 6 5.43 63.3%
82.23 08/19 Valdosta Lowndes 38 – 13 7.84 68.7%
81.76 10/28 Colquitt County Lowndes – 5.28 62.9%
78.20 08/19 Roswell Buford 24 – 7 18.32 86.2%
77.93 10/21 Dalton Harrison 31 – 14 4.26 60.5%
76.31 10/07 McEachern North Cobb 17 – 10 11.50 76.0%
76.16 10/21 Valdosta Lee County 27 – 7 13.05 78.7%
75.86 09/09 Mill Creek Archer 31 – 10 16.71 84.2%
75.66 08/20 McEachern Archer 27 – 14 11.63 76.2%
75.60 08/27 Stockbridge Mays 35 – 34 0.93 52.3%
75.44 09/23 Roswell Archer 47 – 0 20.31 88.4%
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@LorenMaxwell

Wondering if you had any insights on the large jump in the rating for Thomson from 72.45 to a 76.10? While they won and covered the predicted margin by 15 against a Cross Creek team with a 13.52, I did not see any surprising results in the rest of their previous opponents to see that type of jump.

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