Maxwell Ratings’ projections for Class AAAAAAA regions

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

Colquitt County Shaun Bonner (88) gets tackled by Roswell Xavier Mckinney (15) in the GHSA Class AAAAAA State Championship at the Georgia Dome on Saturday December 12, 2015. HYOSUB SHIN / HSHIN@AJC.COM

Colquitt County Shaun Bonner (88) gets tackled by Roswell Xavier Mckinney (15) in the GHSA Class AAAAAA State Championship at the Georgia Dome on Saturday December 12, 2015. HYOSUB SHIN / HSHIN@AJC.COM

These are the Class AAAAAAA preseason predictions of the Maxwell Ratings, a computer-based ranking system created by Loren Maxwell. The projections are based on historical scores, with 2015 results being most significant. The model also rewards program consistency. The Maxwell Ratings have been a staple of Georgia High School Football Daily from its inception. Maxwell’s computer rankings and game projections will be featured throughout the season.

Here are five observations on the new Class AAAAAAA:

*The highest class is now 48 teams, down from 64. While it’s not likely that those dropping down and out would’ve won the title, they would’ve made the early playoff rounds tougher. The most prominent of the departed are Valdosta, Tucker, Lee County, Lovejoy and Hughes.

*Fewer teams mean smaller regions and fewer region games. Most region openers won’t take place until Oct. 7. That opens the schedule for several inter-regional games in the meantime, such as the Roswell-Colquitt County state-final rematch on Sept. 9.

*Region 1 has only four teams, and only the top three are guaranteed playoffs berths, per a new GHSA rule on four-team regions. The 32nd playoff qualifier will be the team with the highest power rating among Region 1’s No. 4 finisher (projected to be Tift County) and the seven fifth-place finishers from the other regions. The power-rating formula is similar to the one used for Class A. The Maxwell Ratings believe that Tift County is seven points better than any No. 5 team.

*For many years, regions 7 and 8 housed Gwinnett County’s teams. Now, they are dispersed in regions 6, 7 and 8. Maxwell projects that 11 Gwinnett teams will make the playoffs. Newton would be the only non-Gwinnett playoff team from those regions.

*The regions are well-balanced. Maxwell projects that 31 of the best 32 teams will make the playoffs. Other classes are not that neat. In AAAAAA, for example, Region 1 has five top-10 teams, one that won’t make the playoffs.

Overall Region
Rnk SOS Region 1 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
1 1 Colquitt County 9.06 0.94 2.81 0.19 102.56
6 7 Camden County 7.46 2.54 1.55 1.45 82.02
9 5 Lowndes 6.77 3.23 1.26 1.74 76.92
21 4 Tift County 4.91 5.09 0.37 2.63 65.13
Rnk SOS Region 2 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
17 32 Westlake 6.87 3.13 4.16 0.84 67.70
25 44 East Coweta 6.77 3.23 3.33 1.67 59.98
26 37 Newnan 5.96 4.04 3.16 1.84 59.55
33 38 Wheeler 5.68 4.32 2.95 2.05 56.78
41 42 Pebblebrook 2.78 7.22 0.96 4.04 34.72
46 30 Campbell 0.78 9.22 0.43 4.57 25.54
Rnk SOS Region 3 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
5 9 McEachern 7.73 2.27 4.59 0.41 84.05
16 22 Hillgrove 6.65 3.35 3.20 1.80 68.27
18 27 North Cobb 6.61 3.39 3.03 1.97 66.71
31 23 North Paulding 4.68 5.32 2.04 2.96 57.15
34 29 Marietta 4.56 5.44 1.64 3.36 54.26
38 39 Kennesaw Mountain 3.11 6.89 0.50 4.50 41.00
Rnk SOS Region 4 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
7 3 Roswell 6.74 3.26 4.30 0.70 81.48
13 20 Etowah 7.11 2.89 3.17 1.83 69.95
15 15 Walton 6.33 3.67 3.16 1.84 69.56
30 24 Lassiter 4.80 5.20 1.74 3.26 57.16
35 19 Cherokee 3.43 6.57 1.39 3.61 53.76
36 28 Woodstock 4.23 5.77 1.24 3.76 53.36
Rnk SOS Region 5 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
23 25 Milton 5.86 4.14 3.72 1.28 63.18
24 40 South Forsyth 6.69 3.31 3.49 1.51 61.00
28 31 West Forsyth 5.50 4.50 3.17 1.83 58.82
32 34 Lambert 5.36 4.64 2.96 2.04 57.00
39 48 Forsyth Central 3.94 6.06 0.84 4.16 36.14
42 43 North Forsyth 2.12 7.88 0.81 4.19 34.70
Rnk SOS Region 6 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
3 6 Mill Creek 7.74 2.26 5.35 0.65 87.72
8 11 Peachtree Ridge 7.42 2.58 4.58 1.42 79.65
11 13 North Gwinnett 6.48 3.52 3.94 2.06 72.96
12 14 Collins Hill 6.35 3.65 3.79 2.21 71.32
37 35 Mountain View 4.43 5.57 2.01 3.99 49.66
40 45 Duluth 3.54 6.46 0.93 5.07 35.23
45 36 Discovery 1.87 8.13 0.41 5.59 25.72
Rnk SOS Region 7 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
10 18 Norcross 6.97 3.03 5.05 0.95 74.52
14 21 Central Gwinnett 6.44 3.56 4.59 1.41 69.65
19 26 Parkview 6.62 3.38 4.18 1.82 66.30
22 17 Brookwood 5.21 4.79 3.93 2.07 63.79
43 46 Berkmar 3.14 6.86 1.53 4.47 34.04
47 47 Meadowcreek 2.26 7.74 0.86 5.14 25.43
48 41 Lakeside 2.01 7.99 0.86 5.14 24.87
Rnk SOS Region 8 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
2 12 Grayson 8.17 1.83 4.39 0.61 88.52
4 2 Archer 7.41 2.59 4.24 0.76 87.17
20 16 Newton 5.40 4.60 2.45 2.55 65.36
27 10 South Gwinnett 3.82 6.18 1.91 3.09 59.36
29 8 Shiloh 3.46 6.54 1.85 3.15 57.97
44 33 Rockdale County 1.83 8.17 0.17 4.83 32.28

Produced by Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.