Maxwell Ratings’ projections for Class AAAAA regions

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

DSC_7062-copy-2These are the Class AAAAA preseason predictions of the Maxwell Ratings, a computer-based ranking system created by Loren Maxwell. The projections are based on historical scores, with 2015 results being most significant.

Here are five observations on the new Class AAAAA:

*It’s largely a North Georgia classification. Only 10 of the 58 schools are below Macon. No. 6 Bainbridge (Region 1) and No. 2 Ware County (Region 2) should represent South Georgia well.

*The GHSA’s new 3-percent rule has put Buford in AAAAA. Buford was the AAAA runner-up last season and has won 10 state titles since 2001, when it was a Class A school.

*Maxwell rates AAAAA and AAAA to be equal in strength and predicts that moving up in classification will not deter Buford, which is far and away the best team in AAAAA based on historical scores.

*Region 7 is the classification’s strongest. It features four teams among the top 11 and seven in the top 32. Kell is the projected winner. Fifth-place Paulding County would be expected to win Region 5.

*Region 5 is the weakest. The six teams playing a region schedule, all from DeKalb County, and their 2015 records are Southwest DeKalb (4-6), Chamblee (2-8), Lithonia (6-4), Arabia Mountain (4-6), Columbia (5-6) and Miller Grove (6-4). Miller Grove and Arabia Mountain are projected to make the playoffs for the first time.

Overall Region
Rnk SOS Region 1 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
6 4 Bainbridge 7.14 2.86 2.92 1.08 60.17
10 1 Warner Robins 5.09 4.91 2.47 1.53 56.48
14 3 Thomas County Central 4.91 5.09 2.13 1.87 52.33
25 8 Veterans 4.01 5.99 1.28 2.72 45.43
29 20 Harris County 4.51 5.49 1.20 2.80 44.29
Rnk SOS Region 2 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
2 2 Ware County 7.91 2.09 3.79 0.21 72.33
16 10 Wayne County 4.94 5.06 2.35 1.65 49.81
19 19 South Effingham 5.33 4.67 2.28 1.72 48.80
37 22 Statesboro 4.04 5.96 1.55 2.45 39.36
55 32 New Hampstead 1.12 8.88 0.04 3.96 2.50
Rnk SOS Region 3 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
8 24 Starr’s Mill 7.34 2.66 5.23 0.77 59.49
13 38 Griffin 7.73 2.27 4.79 1.21 54.09
36 55 Whitewater 6.35 3.65 3.18 2.82 39.48
39 51 Fayette County 5.42 4.58 2.84 3.16 37.14
42 49 McIntosh 4.93 5.07 2.60 3.40 34.55
46 30 Riverdale 3.00 7.00 1.84 4.16 29.33
53 48 Morrow 2.50 7.50 0.52 5.48 14.92
Rnk SOS Region 4 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
3 15 Stockbridge 8.34 1.66 7.24 0.76 69.70
5 21 Jones County 7.53 2.47 6.40 1.60 61.76
15 29 Dutchtown 6.37 3.63 4.80 3.20 50.44
18 17 Woodland (Stock.) 5.26 4.74 4.60 3.40 49.14
23 26 Locust Grove 5.34 4.66 4.07 3.93 45.69
30 11 Eagle’s Landing 3.98 6.02 3.72 4.28 43.88
40 31 Ola 4.33 5.67 2.75 5.25 37.00
43 25 Union Grove 3.56 6.44 2.33 5.67 34.17
56 23 Hampton 0.30 9.70 0.10 7.90 -0.18
Rnk SOS Region 5 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
26 41 Columbia 6.29 3.71 3.35 1.65 45.29
32 27 Southwest DeKalb 5.01 4.99 3.08 1.92 43.20
33 54 Miller Grove 6.81 3.19 2.95 2.05 42.27
35 36 Arabia Mountain 5.23 4.77 2.81 2.19 41.19
41 35 Lithonia 4.40 5.60 2.23 2.77 36.82
50 34 Chamblee 1.64 8.36 0.58 4.42 21.10
57 57 Clarkston 1.92 8.08 #N/A #N/A -5.62
58 58 Cross Keys 1.46 4.54 #N/A #N/A -28.80
Rnk SOS Region 6 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
12 45 Carver (Atlanta) 7.99 2.01 5.95 1.05 54.28
20 44 Riverwood 6.54 3.46 5.38 1.62 48.45
24 40 Grady 5.95 4.05 4.95 2.05 45.66
38 53 Decatur 6.14 3.86 4.00 3.00 38.39
44 50 Jackson (Atlanta) 4.55 5.45 3.03 3.97 31.77
49 46 Lithia Springs 2.73 7.27 1.99 5.01 23.89
51 47 Banneker 2.32 7.68 1.56 5.44 20.09
52 56 North Springs 3.24 6.76 1.14 5.86 15.87
Rnk SOS Region 7 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
4 7 Kell 7.64 2.36 6.57 1.43 65.34
7 12 East Paulding 6.92 3.08 5.75 2.25 59.91
9 16 Carrollton 6.73 3.27 5.31 2.69 56.81
11 9 Rome 5.99 4.01 5.08 2.92 55.64
17 6 Paulding County 4.69 5.31 3.93 4.07 49.42
28 14 Cass 4.43 5.57 3.20 4.80 44.98
31 13 Villa Rica 3.92 6.08 3.02 4.98 43.86
34 5 Hiram 3.18 6.82 2.58 5.42 41.42
48 18 Woodland (Carters.) 1.68 8.32 0.56 7.44 24.07
Rnk SOS Region 8 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
1 37 Buford 9.59 0.41 5.95 0.05 87.46
21 39 Flowery Branch 6.19 3.81 3.80 2.20 47.11
22 43 Loganville 6.59 3.41 3.76 2.24 46.54
27 28 Clarke Central 5.34 4.66 3.57 2.43 44.99
45 33 Cedar Shoals 3.34 6.66 1.99 4.01 30.49
47 42 Walnut Grove 3.02 6.98 1.47 4.53 24.98
54 52 Johnson (Gainesville) 1.95 8.05 0.46 5.54 12.04

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