Maxwell Ratings’ projections for Class AA regions

These are the Class AA preseason predictions of the Maxwell Ratings, a computer-based ranking system created by Loren Maxwell. The projections are based on historical scores, with 2015 results being most significant.

Here are five observations on the new Class AA.

*Only one private school remains in AA. That’s Benedictine, which escaped the 3-percent GHSA rule because it is a single-gender institution. Gone from AA are 2015 champion Pace Academy, Wesleyan, Lovett, Holy Innocents’ and Darlington. Benedictine is Maxwell’s preseason favorite.

*The private-school exodus opens the door for several schools to win their first championships in a long time. The last current AA school besides Benedictine to win a state title is Dublin in 2006. Fitzgerald, ranked No. 2 here, last won in 1948.

*Region 1 is the classification’s strongest with No. 2 Fitzgerald and No. 3 Brooks County at the top. Region 2 with No. 1 Benedictine and No. 6 Vidalia is almost as good.

*Region 6 comprises seven Atlanta-area schools. The last to win a playoff game was Douglass (2007). The last to win a region title was Washington (2005).

*You think Region 7 is happy that Darlington is out of AA? Here are the last times these schools won region titles: Armuchee (1994), Chattooga (1974), Coosa (1975), Dade County (1970), Gordon Lee (1978), Model (1979), Pepperell (2006) and Rockmart (1988).

			Overall		Region
Rnk	SOS	Region 1	ProjW	ProjL	ProjW	ProjL	Rating
2	4	Fitzgerald	8.13	1.87	4.39	0.61	61.06
3	3	Brooks County	8.12	1.88	4.11	0.89	57.91
13	2	Early County	5.53	4.47	2.86	2.14	42.12
17	1	Thomasville	2.88	7.12	2.04	2.96	32.81
31	7	Berrien	3.44	6.56	1.28	3.72	23.54
46	5	Albany	1.17	8.83	0.32	4.68	9.61
Rnk	SOS	Region 2	ProjW	ProjL	ProjW	ProjL	Rating
1	11	Benedictine	8.53	1.47	6.71	0.29	64.42
6	13	Vidalia	7.30	2.70	5.62	1.38	48.01
23	14	Swainsboro	4.49	5.51	3.54	3.46	30.15
25	19	Bacon County	4.77	5.23	3.31	3.69	29.00
26	26	Metter	5.09	4.91	3.14	3.86	27.21
27	31	Bryan County	5.25	4.75	2.85	4.15	26.48
40	23	Jeff Davis	2.95	7.05	1.49	5.51	16.77
43	24	Toombs County	2.94	7.06	1.35	5.65	15.06
Rnk	SOS	Region 3	ProjW	ProjL	ProjW	ProjL	Rating
8	16	Dodge County	7.54	2.46	5.15	0.85	47.16
10	10	Washington County	6.72	3.28	4.99	1.01	45.61
18	22	Dublin	5.77	4.23	3.58	2.42	32.38
32	29	Bleckley County	4.60	5.40	2.50	3.50	23.28
34	21	Northeast	3.49	6.51	1.99	4.01	20.27
36	8	Southwest	2.39	7.61	1.87	4.13	19.20
44	35	East Laurens	2.92	7.08	0.93	5.07	10.27
Rnk	SOS	Region 4	ProjW	ProjL	ProjW	ProjL	Rating
7	38	Jefferson County	8.29	1.71	6.22	0.78	47.80
11	30	Laney	7.20	2.80	5.91	1.09	43.88
15	52	Screven County	7.45	2.55	5.47	1.53	38.80
45	57	Harlem	4.61	5.39	2.67	4.33	9.93
48	53	Westside (Augusta)	3.74	6.26	2.56	4.44	9.12
49	49	Josey	3.31	6.69	2.27	4.73	6.92
50	54	Butler	3.25	6.75	2.18	4.82	6.14
56	43	Glenn Hills	1.11	8.89	0.72	6.28	-7.53
Rnk	SOS	Region 5	ProjW	ProjL	ProjW	ProjL	Rating
5	9	Callaway	7.18	2.82	4.26	0.74	50.75
12	15	Lamar County	6.89	3.11	3.57	1.43	43.07
14	17	Heard County	6.32	3.68	3.30	1.70	40.44
20	12	Spencer	4.62	5.38	2.35	2.65	31.70
35	6	Jordan	2.29	7.71	1.25	3.75	19.24
52	46	Temple	2.97	7.03	0.27	4.73	2.44
Rnk	SOS	Region 6	ProjW	ProjL	ProjW	ProjL	Rating
19	27	Washington	5.85	4.15	4.45	1.55	31.80
21	20	Hapeville Charter	5.58	4.42	4.34	1.66	30.94
22	18	B.E.S.T. Academy	4.84	5.16	4.24	1.76	30.18
33	50	Douglass	5.68	4.32	3.27	2.73	23.02
42	25	Therrell	2.98	7.02	2.21	3.79	15.24
47	36	South Atlanta	2.95	7.05	1.45	4.55	9.15
51	42	KIPP Atlanta	2.43	7.57	1.04	4.96	5.42
Rnk	SOS	Region 7	ProjW	ProjL	ProjW	ProjL	Rating
16	34	Model	7.16	2.84	5.87	1.13	36.26
24	37	Pepperell	6.40	3.60	5.11	1.89	30.11
28	39	Chattooga	6.14	3.86	4.39	2.61	26.29
30	45	Dade County	6.04	3.96	4.30	2.70	24.61
37	51	Coosa	5.18	4.82	3.44	3.56	19.11
39	41	Rockmart	4.77	5.23	3.26	3.74	18.21
53	55	Armuchee	3.20	6.80	1.41	5.59	1.87
57	47	Gordon Central	0.44	9.56	0.23	6.77	-16.46
Rnk	SOS	Region 8	ProjW	ProjL	ProjW	ProjL	Rating
4	40	Elbert County	9.12	0.88	5.66	0.34	55.86
9	28	Rabun County	7.80	2.20	4.98	1.02	45.63
29	48	Putnam County	5.92	4.08	3.40	2.60	25.10
38	32	Banks County	4.10	5.90	2.80	3.20	18.79
41	33	Monticello	3.83	6.17	2.53	3.47	16.51
54	56	Oglethorpe County	2.18	6.82	0.90	5.10	-2.16
55	44	Social Circle	1.38	8.62	0.72	5.28	-3.50

Coming Friday: Class A

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