Maxwell Ratings’ projections for Class AA regions
Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here
These are the Class AA preseason predictions of the Maxwell Ratings, a computer-based ranking system created by Loren Maxwell. The projections are based on historical scores, with 2015 results being most significant.
Here are five observations on the new Class AA.
*Only one private school remains in AA. That’s Benedictine, which escaped the 3-percent GHSA rule because it is a single-gender institution. Gone from AA are 2015 champion Pace Academy, Wesleyan, Lovett, Holy Innocents’ and Darlington. Benedictine is Maxwell’s preseason favorite.
*The private-school exodus opens the door for several schools to win their first championships in a long time. The last current AA school besides Benedictine to win a state title is Dublin in 2006. Fitzgerald, ranked No. 2 here, last won in 1948.
*Region 1 is the classification’s strongest with No. 2 Fitzgerald and No. 3 Brooks County at the top. Region 2 with No. 1 Benedictine and No. 6 Vidalia is almost as good.
*Region 6 comprises seven Atlanta-area schools. The last to win a playoff game was Douglass (2007). The last to win a region title was Washington (2005).
*You think Region 7 is happy that Darlington is out of AA? Here are the last times these schools won region titles: Armuchee (1994), Chattooga (1974), Coosa (1975), Dade County (1970), Gordon Lee (1978), Model (1979), Pepperell (2006) and Rockmart (1988).
Overall | Region | ||||||
Rnk | SOS | Region 1 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
2 | 4 | Fitzgerald | 8.13 | 1.87 | 4.39 | 0.61 | 61.06 |
3 | 3 | Brooks County | 8.12 | 1.88 | 4.11 | 0.89 | 57.91 |
13 | 2 | Early County | 5.53 | 4.47 | 2.86 | 2.14 | 42.12 |
17 | 1 | Thomasville | 2.88 | 7.12 | 2.04 | 2.96 | 32.81 |
31 | 7 | Berrien | 3.44 | 6.56 | 1.28 | 3.72 | 23.54 |
46 | 5 | Albany | 1.17 | 8.83 | 0.32 | 4.68 | 9.61 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 2 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
1 | 11 | Benedictine | 8.53 | 1.47 | 6.71 | 0.29 | 64.42 |
6 | 13 | Vidalia | 7.30 | 2.70 | 5.62 | 1.38 | 48.01 |
23 | 14 | Swainsboro | 4.49 | 5.51 | 3.54 | 3.46 | 30.15 |
25 | 19 | Bacon County | 4.77 | 5.23 | 3.31 | 3.69 | 29.00 |
26 | 26 | Metter | 5.09 | 4.91 | 3.14 | 3.86 | 27.21 |
27 | 31 | Bryan County | 5.25 | 4.75 | 2.85 | 4.15 | 26.48 |
40 | 23 | Jeff Davis | 2.95 | 7.05 | 1.49 | 5.51 | 16.77 |
43 | 24 | Toombs County | 2.94 | 7.06 | 1.35 | 5.65 | 15.06 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 3 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
8 | 16 | Dodge County | 7.54 | 2.46 | 5.15 | 0.85 | 47.16 |
10 | 10 | Washington County | 6.72 | 3.28 | 4.99 | 1.01 | 45.61 |
18 | 22 | Dublin | 5.77 | 4.23 | 3.58 | 2.42 | 32.38 |
32 | 29 | Bleckley County | 4.60 | 5.40 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 23.28 |
34 | 21 | Northeast | 3.49 | 6.51 | 1.99 | 4.01 | 20.27 |
36 | 8 | Southwest | 2.39 | 7.61 | 1.87 | 4.13 | 19.20 |
44 | 35 | East Laurens | 2.92 | 7.08 | 0.93 | 5.07 | 10.27 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 4 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
7 | 38 | Jefferson County | 8.29 | 1.71 | 6.22 | 0.78 | 47.80 |
11 | 30 | Laney | 7.20 | 2.80 | 5.91 | 1.09 | 43.88 |
15 | 52 | Screven County | 7.45 | 2.55 | 5.47 | 1.53 | 38.80 |
45 | 57 | Harlem | 4.61 | 5.39 | 2.67 | 4.33 | 9.93 |
48 | 53 | Westside (Augusta) | 3.74 | 6.26 | 2.56 | 4.44 | 9.12 |
49 | 49 | Josey | 3.31 | 6.69 | 2.27 | 4.73 | 6.92 |
50 | 54 | Butler | 3.25 | 6.75 | 2.18 | 4.82 | 6.14 |
56 | 43 | Glenn Hills | 1.11 | 8.89 | 0.72 | 6.28 | -7.53 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 5 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
5 | 9 | Callaway | 7.18 | 2.82 | 4.26 | 0.74 | 50.75 |
12 | 15 | Lamar County | 6.89 | 3.11 | 3.57 | 1.43 | 43.07 |
14 | 17 | Heard County | 6.32 | 3.68 | 3.30 | 1.70 | 40.44 |
20 | 12 | Spencer | 4.62 | 5.38 | 2.35 | 2.65 | 31.70 |
35 | 6 | Jordan | 2.29 | 7.71 | 1.25 | 3.75 | 19.24 |
52 | 46 | Temple | 2.97 | 7.03 | 0.27 | 4.73 | 2.44 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 6 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
19 | 27 | Washington | 5.85 | 4.15 | 4.45 | 1.55 | 31.80 |
21 | 20 | Hapeville Charter | 5.58 | 4.42 | 4.34 | 1.66 | 30.94 |
22 | 18 | B.E.S.T. Academy | 4.84 | 5.16 | 4.24 | 1.76 | 30.18 |
33 | 50 | Douglass | 5.68 | 4.32 | 3.27 | 2.73 | 23.02 |
42 | 25 | Therrell | 2.98 | 7.02 | 2.21 | 3.79 | 15.24 |
47 | 36 | South Atlanta | 2.95 | 7.05 | 1.45 | 4.55 | 9.15 |
51 | 42 | KIPP Atlanta | 2.43 | 7.57 | 1.04 | 4.96 | 5.42 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 7 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
16 | 34 | Model | 7.16 | 2.84 | 5.87 | 1.13 | 36.26 |
24 | 37 | Pepperell | 6.40 | 3.60 | 5.11 | 1.89 | 30.11 |
28 | 39 | Chattooga | 6.14 | 3.86 | 4.39 | 2.61 | 26.29 |
30 | 45 | Dade County | 6.04 | 3.96 | 4.30 | 2.70 | 24.61 |
37 | 51 | Coosa | 5.18 | 4.82 | 3.44 | 3.56 | 19.11 |
39 | 41 | Rockmart | 4.77 | 5.23 | 3.26 | 3.74 | 18.21 |
53 | 55 | Armuchee | 3.20 | 6.80 | 1.41 | 5.59 | 1.87 |
57 | 47 | Gordon Central | 0.44 | 9.56 | 0.23 | 6.77 | -16.46 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 8 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
4 | 40 | Elbert County | 9.12 | 0.88 | 5.66 | 0.34 | 55.86 |
9 | 28 | Rabun County | 7.80 | 2.20 | 4.98 | 1.02 | 45.63 |
29 | 48 | Putnam County | 5.92 | 4.08 | 3.40 | 2.60 | 25.10 |
38 | 32 | Banks County | 4.10 | 5.90 | 2.80 | 3.20 | 18.79 |
41 | 33 | Monticello | 3.83 | 6.17 | 2.53 | 3.47 | 16.51 |
54 | 56 | Oglethorpe County | 2.18 | 6.82 | 0.90 | 5.10 | -2.16 |
55 | 44 | Social Circle | 1.38 | 8.62 | 0.72 | 5.28 | -3.50 |
Coming Friday: Class A
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