Maxwell Ratings’ projections for Class AA regions

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

High School FootballThese are the Class AA preseason predictions of the Maxwell Ratings, a computer-based ranking system created by Loren Maxwell. The projections are based on historical scores, with 2015 results being most significant.

Here are five observations on the new Class AA.

*Only one private school remains in AA. That’s Benedictine, which escaped the 3-percent GHSA rule because it is a single-gender institution. Gone from AA are 2015 champion Pace Academy, Wesleyan, Lovett, Holy Innocents’ and Darlington. Benedictine is Maxwell’s preseason favorite.

*The private-school exodus opens the door for several schools to win their first championships in a long time. The last current AA school besides Benedictine to win a state title is Dublin in 2006. Fitzgerald, ranked No. 2 here, last won in 1948.

*Region 1 is the classification’s strongest with No. 2 Fitzgerald and No. 3 Brooks County at the top. Region 2 with No. 1 Benedictine and No. 6 Vidalia is almost as good.

*Region 6 comprises seven Atlanta-area schools. The last to win a playoff game was Douglass (2007). The last to win a region title was Washington (2005).

*You think Region 7 is happy that Darlington is out of AA? Here are the last times these schools won region titles: Armuchee (1994), Chattooga (1974), Coosa (1975), Dade County (1970), Gordon Lee (1978), Model (1979), Pepperell (2006) and Rockmart (1988).

Overall Region
Rnk SOS Region 1 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
2 4 Fitzgerald 8.13 1.87 4.39 0.61 61.06
3 3 Brooks County 8.12 1.88 4.11 0.89 57.91
13 2 Early County 5.53 4.47 2.86 2.14 42.12
17 1 Thomasville 2.88 7.12 2.04 2.96 32.81
31 7 Berrien 3.44 6.56 1.28 3.72 23.54
46 5 Albany 1.17 8.83 0.32 4.68 9.61
Rnk SOS Region 2 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
1 11 Benedictine 8.53 1.47 6.71 0.29 64.42
6 13 Vidalia 7.30 2.70 5.62 1.38 48.01
23 14 Swainsboro 4.49 5.51 3.54 3.46 30.15
25 19 Bacon County 4.77 5.23 3.31 3.69 29.00
26 26 Metter 5.09 4.91 3.14 3.86 27.21
27 31 Bryan County 5.25 4.75 2.85 4.15 26.48
40 23 Jeff Davis 2.95 7.05 1.49 5.51 16.77
43 24 Toombs County 2.94 7.06 1.35 5.65 15.06
Rnk SOS Region 3 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
8 16 Dodge County 7.54 2.46 5.15 0.85 47.16
10 10 Washington County 6.72 3.28 4.99 1.01 45.61
18 22 Dublin 5.77 4.23 3.58 2.42 32.38
32 29 Bleckley County 4.60 5.40 2.50 3.50 23.28
34 21 Northeast 3.49 6.51 1.99 4.01 20.27
36 8 Southwest 2.39 7.61 1.87 4.13 19.20
44 35 East Laurens 2.92 7.08 0.93 5.07 10.27
Rnk SOS Region 4 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
7 38 Jefferson County 8.29 1.71 6.22 0.78 47.80
11 30 Laney 7.20 2.80 5.91 1.09 43.88
15 52 Screven County 7.45 2.55 5.47 1.53 38.80
45 57 Harlem 4.61 5.39 2.67 4.33 9.93
48 53 Westside (Augusta) 3.74 6.26 2.56 4.44 9.12
49 49 Josey 3.31 6.69 2.27 4.73 6.92
50 54 Butler 3.25 6.75 2.18 4.82 6.14
56 43 Glenn Hills 1.11 8.89 0.72 6.28 -7.53
Rnk SOS Region 5 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
5 9 Callaway 7.18 2.82 4.26 0.74 50.75
12 15 Lamar County 6.89 3.11 3.57 1.43 43.07
14 17 Heard County 6.32 3.68 3.30 1.70 40.44
20 12 Spencer 4.62 5.38 2.35 2.65 31.70
35 6 Jordan 2.29 7.71 1.25 3.75 19.24
52 46 Temple 2.97 7.03 0.27 4.73 2.44
Rnk SOS Region 6 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
19 27 Washington 5.85 4.15 4.45 1.55 31.80
21 20 Hapeville Charter 5.58 4.42 4.34 1.66 30.94
22 18 B.E.S.T. Academy 4.84 5.16 4.24 1.76 30.18
33 50 Douglass 5.68 4.32 3.27 2.73 23.02
42 25 Therrell 2.98 7.02 2.21 3.79 15.24
47 36 South Atlanta 2.95 7.05 1.45 4.55 9.15
51 42 KIPP Atlanta 2.43 7.57 1.04 4.96 5.42
Rnk SOS Region 7 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
16 34 Model 7.16 2.84 5.87 1.13 36.26
24 37 Pepperell 6.40 3.60 5.11 1.89 30.11
28 39 Chattooga 6.14 3.86 4.39 2.61 26.29
30 45 Dade County 6.04 3.96 4.30 2.70 24.61
37 51 Coosa 5.18 4.82 3.44 3.56 19.11
39 41 Rockmart 4.77 5.23 3.26 3.74 18.21
53 55 Armuchee 3.20 6.80 1.41 5.59 1.87
57 47 Gordon Central 0.44 9.56 0.23 6.77 -16.46
Rnk SOS Region 8 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
4 40 Elbert County 9.12 0.88 5.66 0.34 55.86
9 28 Rabun County 7.80 2.20 4.98 1.02 45.63
29 48 Putnam County 5.92 4.08 3.40 2.60 25.10
38 32 Banks County 4.10 5.90 2.80 3.20 18.79
41 33 Monticello 3.83 6.17 2.53 3.47 16.51
54 56 Oglethorpe County 2.18 6.82 0.90 5.10 -2.16
55 44 Social Circle 1.38 8.62 0.72 5.28 -3.50

Coming Friday: Class A

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