Maxwell Ratings’ projections for Class A regions

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

FootballThese are the Class A preseason predictions of the Maxwell Ratings, a computer-based ranking system created by Loren Maxwell. The projections are based on historical scores, with 2015 results being most significant.

Here are five observations on the new Class A.

*There are 91 football-playing schools in Class A, up from 78 last season. The Class A playoffs have been expanded to 24 teams in both the public and private divisions. They had been 16-team draws.

*Teams moving down to Class A will be factors. In the private division, look out for Wesleyan, Darlington and Holy Innocents’. In the public sector, watch for Macon County, Bowdon, Manchester and Washington-Wilkes.

*The top-five teams in the Maxwell Ratings are private schools – ELCA, Aquinas, Prince Avenue, Mount Paran and Wesleyan. But, overall the two divisions are about equal. For example, the average top-24 private-school team’s rating is 32.97, just 1.74 points better than the average top-24 public school. In fact, if you deleted Eagle’s Landing Christian, the public division’s top 24 would be stronger than the private side. The Maxwell Ratings suggest there are just as many good teams in both divisions, but more truly outstanding teams in the private ranks. For example, ELCA (private) would be a two-touchdown favorite over Clinch County (public) in a game between defending champions, according to Maxwell.

*Regions 3, 4, 6 and 7 are subdivided. All four will pit their subregion winners against each other in the final week of the regular season to determine region champions.

*Region 1 doesn’t have a team in the top 30 overall, according to Maxwell, but will do well in the GHSA power ratings. Maxwell says only two of them – Pelham and Seminole County – are among the best 24 public schools in Class A, but as many as seven will have one of the best 24 W-L records. With teams playing only one non-region game, the GHSA’s power ratings aren’t sophisticated enough to officiate that.

Overall Region
Rnk SOS Region 1 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
31 87 Pelham 8.43 1.57 7.59 1.41 26.46
36 78 Seminole County 7.43 2.57 7.30 1.70 24.23
47 85 Mitchell County 6.70 3.30 6.04 2.96 16.25
58 80 Terrell County 5.64 4.36 5.22 3.78 11.24
62 82 Randolph-Clay 5.88 4.12 4.90 4.10 9.99
63 81 Miller County 5.36 4.64 4.73 4.27 9.02
64 75 Chattahoochee Co. 4.78 5.22 4.73 4.27 8.65
82 84 Calhoun County 3.03 6.97 2.45 6.55 -6.27
85 83 Baconton Charter 2.58 7.42 1.74 7.26 -11.59
90 79 Stewart County 0.59 9.41 0.29 8.71 -31.68
89 90 Pataula Charter 3.08 3.92 #N/A #N/A -29.92
91 91 Webster County 0.67 1.33 #N/A #N/A -36.72
Rnk SOS Region 2 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
6 1 Irwin County 7.30 2.70 5.70 1.30 45.30
7 14 Clinch County 7.71 2.29 5.67 1.33 44.80
11 7 Charlton County 7.14 2.86 5.29 1.71 41.11
25 3 Turner County 5.27 4.73 4.04 2.96 31.09
39 25 Telfair County 4.79 5.21 2.93 4.07 22.58
51 19 Wilcox County 3.08 6.92 1.87 5.13 13.59
54 8 Atkinson County 2.63 7.37 1.81 5.19 12.71
72 26 Lanier County 1.62 8.38 0.69 6.31 1.37
Rnk SOS Region 3 Div. A ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
12 67 Calvary Day 7.49 1.51 4.28 0.72 40.62
13 38 Savannah Christian 6.74 2.26 4.09 0.91 39.43
40 27 McIntosh Co. Acd. 4.30 4.70 2.55 2.45 22.54
50 20 Claxton 2.96 6.04 1.69 3.31 14.43
55 37 Sav. Country Day 3.09 5.91 1.39 3.61 12.10
65 44 Portal 2.78 6.22 1.01 3.99 8.42
Rnk SOS Region 3 Div. B ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
15 70 ECI 7.97 1.03 4.64 0.36 38.63
34 76 Johnson County 6.89 2.11 3.78 1.22 25.75
60 66 Treutlen 4.03 4.97 2.46 2.54 10.37
66 77 Jenkins County 4.28 4.72 2.19 2.81 7.97
75 86 Wheeler County 3.45 5.55 1.21 3.79 -1.26
83 58 Montgomery County 1.37 7.63 0.72 4.28 -6.78
Rnk SOS Region 4 Div. A ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
10 55 Marion County 6.87 1.13 4.42 0.58 41.49
28 35 Manchester 4.86 3.14 3.14 1.86 28.52
32 28 Brookstone 4.36 3.64 2.97 2.03 25.95
38 59 Pacelli 5.09 2.91 2.55 2.45 23.51
52 12 Greenville 2.25 5.75 1.56 3.44 13.25
79 47 Central (Talbotton) 1.27 6.73 0.36 4.64 -2.55
Rnk SOS Region 4 Div. B ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
8 4 Macon County 5.26 2.74 4.59 0.41 44.16
24 11 Dooly County 4.56 3.44 3.65 1.35 31.25
37 49 Hawkinsville 4.63 3.37 3.03 1.97 23.58
53 62 Taylor County 3.84 4.16 1.95 3.05 13.09
67 65 Crawford County 3.28 4.72 1.41 3.59 6.93
84 51 Schley County 1.14 6.86 0.38 4.62 -7.88
Rnk SOS Region 5 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
1 2 ELCA 8.90 1.10 6.62 0.38 60.39
5 42 Wesleyan 8.26 1.74 5.65 1.35 45.30
14 21 Landmark Christian 7.05 2.95 4.98 2.02 38.73
35 16 Holy Innocents’ 4.98 5.02 3.81 3.19 25.62
42 18 Our Lady of Mercy 5.03 4.97 3.55 3.45 21.81
76 54 Strong Rock 2.35 7.65 1.46 5.54 -2.32
80 50 Mount Vernon 2.24 7.76 1.41 5.59 -2.83
86 60 Fulton Leadership 1.38 8.62 0.51 6.49 -16.07
Rnk SOS Region 6 Div. A ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
9 5 Darlington 7.11 1.89 4.82 1.18 42.27
19 15 Bowdon 5.91 3.09 3.90 2.10 34.37
22 23 Trion 5.85 3.15 3.55 2.45 32.13
23 29 Mount Zion (Carroll) 5.56 3.44 3.53 2.47 31.93
26 34 Christian Heritage 5.68 3.32 3.28 2.72 30.49
45 30 Gordon Lee 3.76 5.24 1.65 4.35 17.50
77 33 North Cobb Christian 1.49 7.51 0.27 5.73 -2.36
Rnk SOS Region 6 Div. B ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
4 46 Mount Paran 8.22 0.78 6.38 0.62 47.50
18 32 Mount Pisgah 6.32 2.68 5.33 1.67 35.37
21 22 Pinecrest Academy 5.68 3.32 4.92 2.08 32.85
43 43 Fellowship Christian 4.51 4.49 3.29 3.71 20.33
49 41 Walker 3.67 5.33 2.59 4.41 15.20
56 39 St. Francis 3.10 5.90 2.05 4.95 11.63
57 40 Whitefield Academy 3.48 5.52 1.95 5.05 11.40
68 56 King’s Ridge 3.17 5.83 1.48 5.52 6.92
Rnk SOS Region 7 Div. A ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
17 53 Stratford Academy 7.20 1.80 4.35 0.65 36.63
30 52 First Presbyterian 6.03 2.97 3.63 1.37 27.96
41 36 Wilkinson County 4.60 4.40 2.99 2.01 22.46
59 48 Twiggs County 3.33 5.67 1.64 3.36 10.65
69 31 Mount de Sales 2.13 6.87 1.20 3.80 5.96
70 45 Tattnall Square 2.07 6.93 1.19 3.81 4.95
Rnk SOS Region 7 Div. B ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
2 9 Aquinas 7.45 1.55 4.65 0.35 49.46
20 10 Lincoln County 5.29 3.71 3.45 1.55 33.94
27 6 Washington-Wilkes 4.54 4.46 2.92 2.08 28.61
44 24 Greene County 3.81 5.19 1.95 3.05 19.73
48 17 Hancock Central 3.14 5.86 1.63 3.37 15.90
73 13 Warren County 0.92 8.08 0.40 4.60 0.87
78 88 Georgia Military 5.33 4.67 #N/A #N/A -2.37
88 89 Glascock County 3.27 6.73 #N/A #N/A -21.69
Rnk SOS Region 8 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
3 63 Prince Ave. Christian 9.05 0.95 8.52 0.48 48.92
16 73 Commerce 8.28 1.72 7.40 1.60 37.30
29 72 Athens Academy 7.19 2.81 6.44 2.56 27.98
33 71 Athens Christian 6.84 3.16 6.09 2.91 25.86
46 74 George Walton Acad. 5.82 4.18 4.92 4.08 17.08
61 69 Hebron Christian 4.65 5.35 3.96 5.04 10.32
71 68 Riverside Military 3.31 6.69 2.75 6.25 1.42
74 61 Lakeview Academy 2.85 7.15 2.50 6.50 -0.91
81 57 Towns County 2.25 7.75 1.94 7.06 -5.52
87 64 Providence Christian 0.90 9.10 0.48 8.52 -20.68

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