Maxwell preseason playoff projections

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2016 season. The simulation completed 100,000 seasons and teams with 10 or more championship wins in the simulation are shown.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.


Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 0-0 102.56 999,996 956,702 815,003 713,086 618,574 0.62
Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 0-0 88.52 999,825 739,932 339,108 227,629 88,656 10.28
Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 87.72 999,181 719,103 513,845 196,477 84,065 10.90
Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 0-0 87.17 999,214 702,071 354,254 230,921 75,960 12.16
McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 0-0 84.05 999,253 701,853 395,285 107,847 40,783 23.52
Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 0-0 82.02 998,156 621,441 306,651 147,219 29,871 32.48
Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 0-0 81.48 996,981 498,539 312,901 130,305 27,611 35.22
Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 79.65 991,285 413,541 227,423 74,021 14,850 66.34
Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 0-0 76.92 948,885 474,313 183,778 63,135 8,763 113.12
Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 74.52 997,806 272,074 92,146 30,505 3,816 261.05
North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 72.96 968,902 189,546 68,671 15,852 1,849 539.83
Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 71.32 945,040 151,395 48,430 9,893 966 1,034.20
Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 0-0 69.95 942,495 160,167 48,680 8,219 862 1,159.09
Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 69.65 992,528 166,011 41,231 8,376 793 1,260.03
Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 0-0 69.56 929,277 149,952 44,391 7,453 740 1,350.35
Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 0-0 68.27 950,145 155,238 37,226 6,057 449 2,226.17
Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 0-0 67.70 995,943 111,196 28,477 6,409 446 2,241.15
North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 0-0 66.71 941,149 113,661 24,150 3,712 245 4,080.63
Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 66.30 985,019 128,979 25,604 3,558 234 4,272.50
Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 0-0 65.13 725,422 90,328 16,520 1,755 116 8,619.69
Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 63.79 966,973 100,998 16,747 1,788 96 10,415.67
Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 0-0 65.36 819,020 51,649 13,313 1,605 84 11,903.76
Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 63.18 978,804 77,659 13,767 1,631 76 13,156.89
South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 61.00 970,096 53,575 7,961 758 28 35,713.29
East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 0-0 59.98 972,032 32,813 4,468 404 23 43,477.26
Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 0-0 59.55 971,708 29,193 4,038 357 12 83,332.33
West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 58.82 945,540 31,742 3,759 268 10 99,999.00
South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 0-0 59.36 619,851 15,372 2,555 170 8 124,999.00
Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 57.00 919,626 22,491 2,234 153 6 166,665.67
Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 0-0 56.78 950,756 17,915 2,148 125 4 249,999.00
Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 0-0 57.16 537,464 13,511 1,362 91 2 499,999.00
Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 0-0 57.97 588,237 11,193 1,632 88 1 999,999.00
North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 0-0 57.15 651,699 11,365 1,123 71 1 999,999.00
Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-0 53.76 348,222 4,654 403 30
Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 0-0 54.26 485,426 4,403 353 18
Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 0-0 53.36 334,662 4,469 324 13
Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 49.66 152,381 756 37 1
Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 36.14 121,079 54 1
Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 0-0 41.00 54,648 30 1
Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 34.04 46,976 38
Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 0-0 34.72 105,392 33
North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 34.70 85,948 33
Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 35.23 15,127 7
Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 0-0 32.28 16,111 3
Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 25.43 7,624 2
Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-0 25.54 18,988
Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 24.87 7,845
Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 0-0 25.72 1,263

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 76.70 997,624 714,096 526,985 349,450 233,714 3.28
Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 0-0 75.58 931,484 731,255 495,893 314,654 197,584 4.06
Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 72.80 999,628 621,913 364,432 200,478 110,153 8.08
Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 71.60 971,078 537,672 318,377 180,428 88,166 10.34
Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 0-0 71.17 841,702 574,894 325,576 169,451 81,416 11.28
Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 0-0 69.53 794,769 501,402 257,402 121,018 53,010 17.86
Mays 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 69.37 903,848 419,204 212,157 107,025 46,355 20.57
Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 0-0 68.30 778,903 475,553 234,363 103,577 41,437 23.13
Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 67.75 929,234 385,851 188,211 85,057 33,518 28.83
Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 0-0 66.77 999,555 391,616 187,489 82,414 29,435 32.97
Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 0-0 66.88 653,142 361,101 157,109 63,109 23,584 41.40
Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 64.17 853,836 260,218 101,567 35,852 11,339 87.19
Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 62.76 994,217 274,836 97,770 31,936 8,967 110.52
Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 63.83 718,657 208,032 77,911 26,781 8,321 119.18
Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 63.21 913,005 219,763 83,225 28,701 8,087 122.66
Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 62.70 695,924 183,125 64,137 20,657 6,022 165.06
Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 62.73 672,610 174,699 61,435 19,698 5,642 176.24
Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 60.74 993,408 205,004 64,383 18,092 4,335 229.68
South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 61.78 620,890 147,612 49,132 14,789 4,037 246.71
Drew 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 59.07 660,049 116,536 32,235 7,652 1,726 578.37
Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 58.23 982,977 102,814 33,466 8,526 1,665 599.60
Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 55.67 661,748 58,758 12,696 2,420 385 2,596.40
Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 55.45 661,618 57,992 12,248 2,249 338 2,957.58
Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 56.57 297,807 38,733 9,171 1,889 336 2,975.19
Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 0-0 52.59 979,768 53,432 9,172 1,369 166 6,023.10
Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 52.42 300,999 22,773 3,803 552 72 13,887.89
Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 51.43 234,794 15,579 2,486 315 37 27,026.03
Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 51.42 463,246 21,696 3,373 486 35 28,570.43
Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 0-0 49.20 958,911 27,002 3,615 393 35 28,570.43
Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 48.36 995,537 25,917 2,866 309 26 38,460.54
Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 48.09 820,671 16,660 2,052 205 21 47,618.05
Northview 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 47.96 785,636 15,676 1,956 213 14 71,427.57
Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 46.35 777,478 11,857 1,255 119 12 83,332.33
South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 45.04 159,790 2,611 256 22 4 249,999.00
New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 49.09 65,230 3,143 442 45 2 499,999.00
Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 42.39 829,128 5,882 489 22 2 499,999.00
Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 44.50 142,291 2,121 190 20 1 999,999.00
Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 42.86 11,108 183 22 2 1 999,999.00
Evans 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 39.10 943,428 4,386 249 11
Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 0-0 39.41 852,468 3,776 211 9
M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 42.69 49,949 750 55 3
Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 43.53 13,926 280 16 1
Pope 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 33.00 108,602 145 3 1
Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 34.30 842,428 1,469 48
Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 37.29 251,734 711 32
Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 36.87 255,729 676 30
Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 28.80 702,738 406 5
Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 0-0 25.21 209,298 80 2
Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 26.88 157,061 42 2
Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 20.82 282,481 45
Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 19.43 233,388 17
North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 25.78 14,055 5
Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 14.14 26,558 1
Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 20.85 3,118
River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 21.94 678
Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 17.65 61
Osborne 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 20.35
Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA 0-0 5.17

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Buford 8 – AAAAA 0-0 87.46 999,997 949,791 901,797 849,364 738,283 0.35
Ware County 2 – AAAAA 0-0 72.33 999,990 779,348 607,454 425,859 112,695 7.87
Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 0-0 69.70 995,182 786,831 641,587 298,785 76,176 12.13
Kell 7 – AAAAA 0-0 65.34 961,186 660,645 258,995 120,734 25,199 38.68
Jones County 4 – AAAAA 0-0 61.76 964,859 497,860 319,403 70,394 13,466 73.26
Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 0-0 59.49 994,938 472,947 231,169 38,069 7,394 134.24
Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 0-0 60.17 973,212 466,296 101,064 38,056 6,960 142.68
East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 0-0 59.91 868,344 454,690 144,161 39,040 6,637 149.67
Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 0-0 56.81 789,128 342,473 97,694 20,741 2,763 360.93
Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 0-0 56.48 933,547 334,955 72,200 19,872 2,543 392.24
Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 0-0 54.28 989,051 258,411 118,821 13,443 1,878 531.48
Rome 7 – AAAAA 0-0 55.64 708,321 279,006 78,458 14,386 1,806 552.71
Griffin 3 – AAAAA 0-0 54.09 978,713 297,764 102,084 14,215 1,591 627.54
Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 0-0 52.33 882,540 215,094 44,262 8,046 700 1,427.57
Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 0-0 50.44 658,355 77,404 26,672 3,301 301 3,321.26
Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 0-0 49.81 996,590 83,772 26,697 3,330 293 3,411.97
Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 0-0 48.45 959,859 112,577 37,045 3,767 247 4,047.58
South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-0 48.80 995,357 80,683 24,521 2,630 192 5,207.33
Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 0-0 49.42 332,277 77,276 15,992 1,826 138 7,245.38
Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 0-0 49.14 596,160 52,015 16,028 1,836 133 7,517.80
Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 0-0 47.11 914,463 73,489 19,619 2,476 128 7,811.50
Loganville 8 – AAAAA 0-0 46.54 912,557 68,284 17,673 1,935 111 9,008.01
Grady 6 – AAAAA 0-0 45.66 894,055 59,796 15,513 1,452 73 13,697.63
Veterans 1 – AAAAA 0-0 45.43 633,325 64,214 10,515 863 54 18,517.52
Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 0-0 44.99 865,633 54,338 12,629 1,203 53 18,866.92
Columbia 5 – AAAAA 0-0 45.29 897,019 71,173 12,240 1,163 51 19,606.84
Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 0-0 45.69 381,443 19,855 4,716 439 34 29,410.76
Harris County 1 – AAAAA 0-0 44.29 577,376 50,794 7,617 589 26 38,460.54
Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 0-0 43.20 861,066 47,662 6,810 517 14 71,427.57
Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 0-0 42.27 833,018 38,943 5,231 365 12 83,332.33
Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-0 44.98 155,428 22,605 3,617 241 10 99,999.00
Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 0-0 43.86 120,114 14,923 2,186 135 7 142,856.14
Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 0-0 41.19 796,380 30,471 3,546 209 6 166,665.67
Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 0-0 43.88 281,448 10,691 2,135 165 6 166,665.67
Decatur 6 – AAAAA 0-0 38.39 717,401 11,039 1,585 105 6 166,665.67
Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-0 39.36 982,191 19,784 3,273 170 5 199,999.00
Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 0-0 39.48 754,239 23,975 2,158 142 3 333,332.33
Hiram 7 – AAAAA 0-0 41.42 64,907 5,774 734 38 3 333,332.33
Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 0-0 37.14 604,420 12,253 787 41 1 999,999.00
Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 0-0 36.82 556,407 9,366 707 27 1 999,999.00
McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 0-0 34.55 472,531 5,860 255 18 1 999,999.00
Ola 4 – AAAAA 0-0 37.00 82,218 953 109 9
Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 0-0 31.77 309,267 1,103 88 2
Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 0-0 30.49 200,807 1,373 105 1
Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 0-0 34.17 40,335 283 22 1
Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 0-0 29.33 179,918 781 14
Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 0-0 24.98 98,402 255 9
Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 0-0 21.10 56,110 54 2
Morrow 3 – AAAAA 0-0 14.92 15,241 5 1
Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-0 23.89 84,791 58
Banneker 6 – AAAAA 0-0 20.09 32,597 5
Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-0 12.04 8,141 2
Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-0 24.07 295 1
New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 0-0 2.50 25,872
North Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-0 15.87 12,979
Hampton 4 – AAAAA 0-0 -0.18
Clarkston 5 – AAAAA 0-0 -5.62
Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA 0-0 -28.80

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Cartersville 5 – AAAA 0-0 78.48 999,761 917,873 726,277 572,250 419,616 1.38
Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 0-0 71.03 997,840 807,204 613,411 391,719 167,723 4.96
Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 0-0 71.93 999,921 853,929 385,868 256,936 136,415 6.33
Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 0-0 69.44 999,973 766,009 542,953 234,479 106,374 8.40
Marist 7 – AAAA 0-0 67.31 999,952 717,525 473,888 184,352 71,757 12.94
St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-0 65.92 992,780 749,095 378,499 153,002 53,333 17.75
Jefferson 8 – AAAA 0-0 62.76 987,398 676,914 290,983 95,261 27,316 35.61
Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 0-0 57.86 979,968 411,615 129,818 27,988 5,989 165.97
Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 0-0 56.78 987,008 234,192 94,760 22,949 4,156 239.62
Burke County 3 – AAAA 0-0 54.58 998,588 130,066 66,610 16,849 2,594 384.51
Thomson 3 – AAAA 0-0 54.16 997,694 131,594 69,117 17,104 2,419 412.39
Cairo 1 – AAAA 0-0 52.00 965,272 135,448 42,192 6,981 845 1,182.43
West Laurens 2 – AAAA 0-0 49.83 875,593 211,161 36,176 5,080 497 2,011.07
Spalding 2 – AAAA 0-0 47.63 817,864 160,673 21,964 2,781 226 4,423.78
Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-0 47.32 821,224 54,101 16,199 1,900 144 6,943.44
Stephens County 8 – AAAA 0-0 46.02 765,881 158,909 17,692 1,877 131 7,632.59
Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 0-0 45.74 798,891 132,187 15,710 1,750 127 7,873.02
Eastside 4 – AAAA 0-0 44.61 882,503 138,668 14,946 1,646 86 11,626.91
North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-0 45.00 702,324 142,098 14,973 1,463 81 12,344.68
Oconee County 8 – AAAA 0-0 42.96 536,464 89,902 8,124 693 41 24,389.24
LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-0 44.70 617,300 25,715 6,585 632 38 26,314.79
Westover 1 – AAAA 0-0 44.37 793,879 31,622 6,763 560 33 30,302.03
Pickens 6 – AAAA 0-0 39.67 944,130 69,050 5,289 398 21 47,618.05
Salem 4 – AAAA 0-0 40.74 813,056 64,565 5,075 431 20 49,999.00
Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 0-0 38.43 920,099 53,716 3,741 262 6 166,665.67
Luella 4 – AAAA 0-0 38.78 737,721 39,678 2,750 163 5 199,999.00
Baldwin 3 – AAAA 0-0 40.23 961,966 20,096 3,466 218 3 333,332.33
White County 7 – AAAA 0-0 35.28 969,436 7,483 1,207 50 2 499,999.00
Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 0-0 37.06 438,788 4,951 823 43 1 999,999.00
Shaw 1 – AAAA 0-0 37.17 411,557 4,742 796 37 1 999,999.00
Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-0 32.80 767,909 14,020 643 33
Howard 2 – AAAA 0-0 36.54 275,447 11,686 619 32
Troup 5 – AAAA 0-0 37.42 371,413 4,693 651 27
Perry 2 – AAAA 0-0 34.77 252,237 8,203 367 20
Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 0-0 33.23 278,721 1,634 225 9
Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 0-0 30.87 705,319 7,927 281 7
West Hall 7 – AAAA 0-0 29.01 927,087 1,836 173 3
Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 0-0 34.05 141,573 1,048 109 3
Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 0-0 29.18 221,774 1,975 65 3
Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-0 28.52 219,023 1,710 47 3
Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 0-0 27.23 770,388 1,574 67 2
Columbus 1 – AAAA 0-0 30.26 122,024 430 45 1
Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 0-0 24.66 392,404 1,146 27 1
North Clayton 4 – AAAA 0-0 26.33 126,002 621 11 1
Cedartown 5 – AAAA 0-0 27.88 50,889 113 4 1
Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 0-0 22.41 259,507 485 9
Madison County 8 – AAAA 0-0 16.32 15,153 67 1
Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 0-0 14.92 231,993 46 1
Chestatee 7 – AAAA 0-0 4.51 103,552 3
Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-0 2.49 39,371 1
Hardaway 1 – AAAA 0-0 14.77 2,751 1
LaFayette 6 – AAAA 0-0 6.07 10,632

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Calhoun 6 – AAA 0-0 71.40 999,466 904,154 738,455 625,347 459,487 1.18
Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 0-0 66.74 999,937 718,701 623,864 452,291 237,004 3.22
Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 0-0 61.30 994,207 750,419 471,196 241,723 104,407 8.58
Lovett 5 – AAA 0-0 58.68 987,027 642,762 361,808 158,325 59,402 15.83
Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 0-0 58.65 986,731 639,708 357,821 155,798 58,590 16.07
Worth County 1 – AAA 0-0 53.20 995,525 368,542 223,067 63,655 17,498 56.15
Peach County 4 – AAA 0-0 53.05 995,521 495,736 204,999 69,366 17,368 56.58
Hart County 8 – AAA 0-0 51.29 998,731 569,687 237,931 53,162 13,933 70.77
Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 0-0 50.66 991,072 374,820 136,068 39,962 8,769 113.04
Pace Academy 5 – AAA 0-0 50.44 938,896 278,301 119,431 30,614 6,833 145.35
Adairsville 6 – AAA 0-0 47.95 979,052 456,137 127,979 39,739 6,530 152.14
Liberty County 2 – AAA 0-0 47.44 988,750 332,811 85,956 20,488 3,417 291.65
Cook 1 – AAA 0-0 46.25 978,501 194,059 76,305 14,928 2,493 400.12
Monroe 1 – AAA 0-0 45.40 971,209 176,738 64,783 12,352 1,965 507.91
Pierce County 2 – AAA 0-0 43.36 976,349 216,813 43,692 7,616 919 1,087.14
Jackson 4 – AAA 0-0 41.78 936,565 165,662 31,968 4,448 491 2,035.66
Appling County 2 – AAA 0-0 40.61 936,928 131,140 22,154 3,064 313 3,193.89
Crisp County 1 – AAA 0-0 39.53 933,269 92,477 20,974 2,621 288 3,471.22
North Hall 7 – AAA 0-0 39.20 923,944 46,159 10,891 1,108 108 9,258.26
Morgan County 8 – AAA 0-0 34.82 909,853 86,591 8,826 807 57 17,542.86
Jenkins 3 – AAA 0-0 35.70 998,135 42,984 4,819 573 42 23,808.52
Ringgold 6 – AAA 0-0 34.28 670,440 69,101 6,932 567 30 33,332.33
Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 0-0 34.39 763,530 57,206 5,308 435 21 47,618.05
Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 0-0 33.11 997,456 27,922 3,007 286 11 90,908.09
Jackson County 8 – AAA 0-0 31.74 888,752 51,435 4,086 297 8 124,999.00
Sonoraville 6 – AAA 0-0 30.26 668,122 41,826 3,656 237 7 142,856.14
Dawson County 7 – AAA 0-0 30.90 674,508 8,950 951 58 4 249,999.00
East Hall 7 – AAA 0-0 29.19 568,832 5,618 498 26 2 499,999.00
Union County 7 – AAA 0-0 28.23 554,455 4,633 408 28 1 999,999.00
Monroe Area 8 – AAA 0-0 24.91 642,643 9,236 410 14 1 999,999.00
Franklin County 8 – AAA 0-0 23.70 527,821 6,099 231 11 1 999,999.00
Bremen 6 – AAA 0-0 23.65 462,585 11,781 564 21
Brantley County 2 – AAA 0-0 26.68 523,174 9,628 570 20
Tattnall County 2 – AAA 0-0 24.20 428,554 5,275 205 7
Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-0 22.50 173,838 2,378 56 2
Redan 5 – AAA 0-0 26.23 56,022 462 35 1
North Murray 6 – AAA 0-0 15.44 171,539 1,247 25 1
Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 0-0 19.72 153,668 280 15 1
Rutland 4 – AAA 0-0 19.48 86,017 676 10 1
Beach 3 – AAA 0-0 13.87 753,116 358 10
Fannin County 7 – AAA 0-0 18.70 124,656 167 10
Dougherty 1 – AAA 0-0 17.82 121,496 466 9
Long County 2 – AAA 0-0 14.34 146,245 335 8
Towers 5 – AAA 0-0 22.49 31,190 114 4
Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-0 8.11 531,305 83 3
Savannah 3 – AAA 0-0 8.04 523,979 92 2
Pike County 4 – AAA 0-0 14.91 53,457 197
Murray County 6 – AAA 0-0 2.81 22,694 15
Haralson County 6 – AAA 0-0 6.15 23,693 14
McNair 5 – AAA 0-0 15.11 5,820 4
Groves 3 – AAA 0-0 -2.00 115,493 1
Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 0-0 -4.68 58,957
East Jackson 8 – AAA 0-0 3.72 32,200
Islands 3 – AAA 0-0 -8.95 21,559
Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-0 -9.48 1,910
Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 0-0 -15.63 499
Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 0-0 0.34 107

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine 2 – AA 0-0 64.42 999,836 843,029 622,259 522,348 373,254 1.68
Fitzgerald 1 – AA 0-0 61.06 999,181 854,676 541,733 431,161 250,343 2.99
Brooks County 1 – AA 0-0 57.91 997,765 796,416 424,838 303,657 147,755 5.77
Elbert County 8 – AA 0-0 55.86 999,827 604,560 292,202 213,177 89,646 10.15
Callaway 5 – AA 0-0 50.75 996,519 534,522 359,160 114,120 40,082 23.95
Jefferson County 4 – AA 0-0 47.80 999,432 644,046 335,275 86,381 25,009 38.99
Dodge County 3 – AA 0-0 47.16 994,944 416,880 261,404 68,846 17,653 55.65
Vidalia 2 – AA 0-0 48.01 986,643 339,330 125,812 56,970 14,647 67.27
Washington County 3 – AA 0-0 45.61 993,424 346,351 198,839 45,803 10,940 90.41
Laney 4 – AA 0-0 43.88 998,057 491,208 209,891 42,063 9,083 109.10
Rabun County 8 – AA 0-0 45.63 996,580 247,935 82,351 31,752 7,581 130.91
Lamar County 5 – AA 0-0 43.07 982,121 298,041 145,013 28,882 5,842 170.17
Early County 1 – AA 0-0 42.12 937,392 226,689 80,718 14,907 2,852 349.63
Heard County 5 – AA 0-0 40.44 970,142 217,204 89,209 15,441 2,507 397.88
Screven County 4 – AA 0-0 38.80 992,775 274,685 85,535 12,038 1,753 569.45
Model 7 – AA 0-0 36.26 971,840 91,398 14,279 2,752 324 3,085.42
Washington 6 – AA 0-0 31.80 949,881 133,441 28,115 2,197 164 6,096.56
Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 0-0 30.94 938,358 114,553 22,218 1,636 133 7,517.80
Dublin 3 – AA 0-0 32.38 867,235 46,613 9,201 890 97 10,308.28
B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 0-0 30.18 926,174 97,951 17,656 1,246 96 10,415.67
Thomasville 1 – AA 0-0 32.81 758,771 51,819 13,040 1,099 82 12,194.12
Spencer 5 – AA 0-0 31.70 802,399 47,077 6,746 728 56 17,856.14
Swainsboro 2 – AA 0-0 30.15 599,421 49,753 7,899 484 34 29,410.76
Pepperell 7 – AA 0-0 30.11 893,397 32,051 4,572 458 30 33,332.33
Bacon County 2 – AA 0-0 29.00 521,977 36,995 5,322 280 14 71,427.57
Putnam County 8 – AA 0-0 25.10 835,555 41,081 4,178 164 7 142,856.14
Metter 2 – AA 0-0 27.21 454,321 25,387 3,171 156 5 199,999.00
Bryan County 2 – AA 0-0 26.48 333,408 16,563 1,970 75 4 249,999.00
Dade County 7 – AA 0-0 24.61 704,027 10,013 1,265 63 3 333,332.33
Berrien 1 – AA 0-0 23.54 268,755 4,267 598 17 2 499,999.00
Chattooga 7 – AA 0-0 26.29 717,442 13,660 1,843 108 1 999,999.00
Northeast 3 – AA 0-0 20.27 278,162 1,265 60 2 1 999,999.00
Douglass 6 – AA 0-0 23.02 728,875 18,022 1,737 59
Banks County 8 – AA 0-0 18.79 633,211 12,272 754 13
Bleckley County 3 – AA 0-0 23.28 533,601 4,684 295 12
Coosa 7 – AA 0-0 19.11 386,835 2,025 169 4
Rockmart 7 – AA 0-0 18.21 313,798 1,340 108 3
Monticello 8 – AA 0-0 16.51 474,365 6,162 322 2
Jordan 5 – AA 0-0 19.24 214,755 1,807 58 2
Southwest 3 – AA 0-0 19.20 273,659 1,097 49 2
Therrell 6 – AA 0-0 15.24 309,642 1,438 66 1
Jeff Davis 2 – AA 0-0 16.77 57,513 637 36 1
Toombs County 2 – AA 0-0 15.06 46,881 383 21
Harlem 4 – AA 0-0 9.93 344,330 191 4
Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 0-0 9.12 289,837 137 4
Josey 4 – AA 0-0 6.92 195,862 54 3
Albany 1 – AA 0-0 9.61 38,136 48 1
Butler 4 – AA 0-0 6.14 169,737 40 1
South Atlanta 6 – AA 0-0 9.15 93,142 96
East Laurens 3 – AA 0-0 10.27 58,975 42
K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 0-0 5.42 53,928 23
Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-0 -2.16 36,355 22
Temple 5 – AA 0-0 2.44 34,064 12
Social Circle 8 – AA 0-0 -3.50 24,107 6
Armuchee 7 – AA 0-0 1.87 12,587 3
Glenn Hills 4 – AA 0-0 -7.53 9,970
Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-0 -16.46 74

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Irwin County 2 – A 0-0 45.30 991,411 731,729 520,859 346,386 218,355 3.58
Clinch County 2 – A 0-0 44.80 997,530 743,033 519,530 340,452 209,846 3.77
Macon County 4 – A 0-0 44.16 833,209 570,394 397,116 247,263 144,289 5.93
Marion County 4 – A 0-0 41.49 988,556 644,517 406,011 223,053 113,851 7.78
Charlton County 2 – A 0-0 41.11 994,860 643,457 389,614 214,684 106,226 8.41
Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 0-0 38.63 997,778 585,784 325,590 157,611 66,608 14.01
Commerce 8 – A 0-0 37.30 999,489 599,287 312,212 141,000 55,309 17.08
Lincoln County 7 – A 0-0 33.94 957,084 391,986 169,369 61,532 19,373 50.62
Bowdon 6 – A 0-0 34.37 916,335 312,673 135,869 49,856 16,075 61.21
Trion 6 – A 0-0 32.13 906,964 348,292 135,811 45,239 12,522 78.86
Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 0-0 31.93 924,658 326,380 125,479 40,243 11,067 89.36
Turner County 2 – A 0-0 31.09 784,885 241,633 86,809 26,192 6,736 147.46
Pelham 1 – A 0-0 26.46 999,485 410,920 125,283 30,869 5,496 180.95
Dooly County 4 – A 0-0 31.25 505,654 133,574 49,730 15,395 4,081 244.04
Manchester 4 – A 0-0 28.52 692,132 145,490 45,421 11,363 2,505 398.20
Seminole County 1 – A 0-0 24.23 990,617 310,357 80,371 16,723 2,427 411.03
Johnson County 3 – A 0-0 25.75 963,433 213,896 56,557 11,848 2,012 496.02
Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 0-0 28.61 552,819 116,982 36,349 9,242 1,921 519.56
Telfair County 2 – A 0-0 22.58 600,453 70,733 14,523 2,335 334 2,993.01
Wilkinson County 7 – A 0-0 22.46 530,312 66,875 13,711 2,263 294 3,400.36
Hawkinsville 4 – A 0-0 23.58 362,958 41,335 9,488 1,732 244 4,097.36
McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 0-0 22.54 453,544 48,602 10,044 1,626 204 4,900.96
Mitchell County 1 – A 0-0 16.25 973,433 134,437 18,195 1,904 148 6,755.76
Greene County 7 – A 0-0 19.73 223,840 14,836 2,501 317 30 33,332.33
Terrell County 1 – A 0-0 11.24 809,054 51,922 4,563 274 14 71,427.57
Gordon Lee 6 – A 0-0 17.50 203,974 10,108 1,287 144 10 99,999.00
Randolph-Clay 1 – A 0-0 9.99 681,425 21,798 1,844 114 4 249,999.00
Chattahoochee County 1 – A 0-0 8.65 827,502 16,771 1,207 60 4 249,999.00
Hancock Central 7 – A 0-0 15.90 121,869 4,997 624 48 4 249,999.00
Claxton 3 – A 0-0 14.43 159,880 5,359 608 45 3 333,332.33
Taylor County 4 – A 0-0 13.09 200,027 5,722 563 37 2 499,999.00
Wilcox County 2 – A 0-0 13.59 119,416 4,228 413 28 2 499,999.00
Twiggs County 7 – A 0-0 10.65 141,493 3,314 285 14 2 499,999.00
Miller County 1 – A 0-0 9.02 771,396 17,350 1,294 63 1 999,999.00
Greenville 4 – A 0-0 13.25 25,418 791 89 6 1 999,999.00
Atkinson County 2 – A 0-0 12.71 151,776 3,723 342 16
Jenkins County 3 – A 0-0 7.97 298,428 3,722 221 13
Treutlen 3 – A 0-0 10.37 95,826 1,907 169 10
Portal 3 – A 0-0 8.42 63,668 842 42
Calhoun County 1 – A 0-0 -6.27 158,680 159 2
Lanier County 2 – A 0-0 1.37 5,336 28 2
Crawford County 4 – A 0-0 6.93 1,505 22 2
Wheeler County 3 – A 0-0 -1.26 8,303 15 1
Towns County 8 – A 0-0 -5.52 7,794 11
Warren County 7 – A 0-0 0.87 853 4
Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 0-0 -2.55 335 3
Baconton Charter 1 – A 0-0 -11.59 4,446 1
Montgomery County 3 – A 0-0 -6.78 142 1
Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-0 -16.07 12
Schley County 4 – A 0-0 -7.88 2
Stewart County 1 – A 0-0 -31.68 1

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 0-0 60.39 1,000,000 943,743 827,363 694,832 557,188 0.79
Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 0-0 48.92 999,999 852,289 594,003 346,852 129,431 6.73
Aquinas 7 – A 0-0 49.46 999,982 794,129 527,313 271,086 110,948 8.01
Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 0-0 47.50 999,991 792,642 462,178 209,184 79,770 11.54
Wesleyan 5 – A 0-0 45.30 999,974 791,213 413,733 163,819 54,259 17.43
Darlington 6 – A 0-0 42.27 999,123 576,651 246,419 83,204 22,328 43.79
Calvary Day 3 – A 0-0 40.62 999,813 472,761 190,703 58,542 13,534 72.89
Savannah Christian 3 – A 0-0 39.43 998,804 542,481 197,302 56,450 12,195 81.00
Landmark Christian 5 – A 0-0 38.73 999,060 518,401 163,769 45,217 9,632 102.82
Stratford Academy 7 – A 0-0 36.63 997,435 448,998 132,605 31,253 5,538 179.57
Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 0-0 35.37 991,174 285,846 79,621 17,185 2,799 356.27
Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-0 32.85 980,259 217,245 50,320 8,877 1,189 840.04
Christian Heritage 6 – A 0-0 30.49 993,003 139,171 28,414 4,250 457 2,187.18
Athens Academy 8 – A 0-0 27.98 999,846 166,602 25,646 3,207 296 3,377.38
First Presbyterian 7 – A 0-0 27.96 960,727 85,176 15,547 1,903 166 6,023.10
Athens Christian 8 – A 0-0 25.86 999,049 121,075 16,174 1,668 105 9,522.81
Holy Innocents 5 – A 0-0 25.62 982,791 62,602 9,058 912 66 15,150.52
Brookstone 4 – A 0-0 25.95 800,495 47,450 6,475 660 59 16,948.15
Pacelli 4 – A 0-0 23.51 846,704 48,374 5,699 443 23 43,477.26
Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 0-0 21.81 856,782 37,821 3,809 268 12 83,332.33
Fellowship Christian 6 – A 0-0 20.33 864,321 20,396 1,916 115 2 499,999.00
George Walton Academy 8 – A 0-0 17.08 956,312 18,500 1,272 58 2 499,999.00
Walker 6 – A 0-0 15.20 411,396 5,293 277 7 1 999,999.00
Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 0-0 10.32 790,087 5,060 194 4
Savannah Country Day 3 – A 0-0 12.10 371,515 2,836 105 3
St. Francis 6 – A 0-0 11.63 226,350 1,392 46 1
Whitefield Academy 6 – A 0-0 11.40 164,075 936 25
King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 0-0 6.92 105,400 255 4
Mount de Sales 7 – A 0-0 5.96 69,193 162 3
Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 0-0 1.42 142,200 130 2
Tattnall Square 7 – A 0-0 4.95 59,003 113 2
Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 0-0 -2.32 133,461 68 2
Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 0-0 -2.83 77,308 42 1
Lakeview Academy 8 – A 0-0 -0.91 207,282 141
North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-0 -2.36 15,888 6
Providence Christian 8 – A 0-0 -20.68 1,198

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