Maxwell playoff projections after Week 4
Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2016 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Region
Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.
Teams in Semifinals | Teams in Finals | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Region | Eliminated | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4 | Eliminated | 1+ | 2 | Champion | Odds |
4 – AAAAAAA | 244,582 | 755,418 | 77,025 | 2,441 | 24 | 375,056 | 624,944 | 4,518 | 385,800 | 1.59 |
8 – AAAAAAA | 194,749 | 805,251 | 275,632 | 13,961 | 186 | 511,530 | 488,470 | 38,577 | 265,862 | 2.76 |
6 – AAAAAAA | 374,701 | 625,299 | 70,770 | 2,174 | 15 | 595,779 | 404,221 | 5,091 | 219,686 | 3.55 |
3 – AAAAAAA | 634,544 | 365,456 | 30,716 | 619 | 3 | 815,346 | 184,654 | 1,318 | 73,161 | 12.67 |
1 – AAAAAAA | 605,336 | 394,664 | 54,626 | 1,687 | 7 | 871,970 | 128,030 | 2,970 | 32,146 | 30.11 |
7 – AAAAAAA | 639,557 | 360,443 | 36,081 | 1,123 | 11 | 903,478 | 96,522 | 967 | 21,328 | 45.89 |
5 – AAAAAAA | 946,491 | 53,509 | 901 | 6 | – | 988,898 | 11,102 | 7 | 1,220 | 818.67 |
2 – AAAAAAA | 929,303 | 70,697 | 1,250 | 5 | – | 991,402 | 8,598 | 11 | 797 | 1,253.71 |
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
Team | Region | Record | Rating | Playoffs | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Roswell | 4 – AAAAAAA | 3-0 | 96.95 | 999,978 | 841,780 | 753,283 | 616,875 | 384,578 | 1.60 |
Grayson | 8 – AAAAAAA | 1-1 | 94.54 | 999,985 | 880,889 | 742,013 | 427,205 | 243,382 | 3.11 |
Mill Creek | 6 – AAAAAAA | 4-0 | 94.87 | 999,991 | 799,167 | 605,339 | 391,825 | 217,708 | 3.59 |
McEachern | 3 – AAAAAAA | 2-1 | 88.65 | 999,730 | 770,866 | 339,357 | 176,563 | 72,323 | 12.83 |
Colquitt County | 1 – AAAAAAA | 0-4 | 82.50 | 961,946 | 577,971 | 239,644 | 80,141 | 22,363 | 43.72 |
Archer | 8 – AAAAAAA | 1-2 | 81.43 | 985,785 | 480,964 | 284,777 | 88,119 | 21,247 | 46.07 |
Norcross | 7 – AAAAAAA | 3-0 | 80.92 | 999,605 | 536,097 | 271,144 | 75,265 | 18,448 | 53.21 |
Lowndes | 1 – AAAAAAA | 3-1 | 78.55 | 973,894 | 462,686 | 172,606 | 44,489 | 9,221 | 107.45 |
Brookwood | 7 – AAAAAAA | 2-1 | 72.62 | 994,049 | 269,740 | 66,221 | 12,039 | 1,658 | 602.14 |
North Gwinnett | 6 – AAAAAAA | 2-2 | 72.22 | 977,424 | 136,601 | 52,526 | 10,934 | 1,324 | 754.29 |
Parkview | 7 – AAAAAAA | 2-1 | 71.54 | 991,526 | 239,647 | 52,314 | 9,170 | 1,156 | 864.05 |
South Forsyth | 5 – AAAAAAA | 3-1 | 71.22 | 995,046 | 221,657 | 33,884 | 8,601 | 1,036 | 964.25 |
South Gwinnett | 8 – AAAAAAA | 3-1 | 71.29 | 944,906 | 136,496 | 48,309 | 8,971 | 1,027 | 972.71 |
Lassiter | 4 – AAAAAAA | 3-0 | 71.04 | 948,387 | 123,420 | 39,973 | 7,206 | 770 | 1,297.70 |
Peachtree Ridge | 6 – AAAAAAA | 1-3 | 70.20 | 949,829 | 111,788 | 38,142 | 6,447 | 648 | 1,542.21 |
North Cobb | 3 – AAAAAAA | 2-1 | 70.09 | 973,218 | 200,928 | 34,820 | 6,813 | 646 | 1,546.99 |
East Coweta | 2 – AAAAAAA | 3-0 | 69.32 | 994,962 | 127,508 | 39,698 | 5,082 | 523 | 1,911.05 |
Etowah | 4 – AAAAAAA | 3-1 | 69.28 | 890,057 | 98,558 | 29,227 | 4,314 | 399 | 2,505.27 |
Tift County | 1 – AAAAAAA | 3-1 | 68.29 | 738,103 | 145,941 | 23,692 | 3,960 | 362 | 2,761.43 |
Westlake | 2 – AAAAAAA | 1-2 | 67.67 | 984,017 | 95,556 | 26,587 | 3,095 | 259 | 3,860.00 |
Newton | 8 – AAAAAAA | 2-0-1 | 67.56 | 870,098 | 70,715 | 19,276 | 2,710 | 206 | 4,853.37 |
Camden County | 1 – AAAAAAA | 0-3 | 67.08 | 562,739 | 105,245 | 15,042 | 2,410 | 200 | 4,999.00 |
Hillgrove | 3 – AAAAAAA | 1-2 | 65.26 | 824,699 | 76,626 | 11,144 | 1,291 | 104 | 9,614.38 |
Milton | 5 – AAAAAAA | 2-1 | 64.63 | 938,829 | 77,155 | 9,120 | 1,076 | 95 | 10,525.32 |
West Forsyth | 5 – AAAAAAA | 2-1 | 65.07 | 958,968 | 89,343 | 10,162 | 1,370 | 88 | 11,362.64 |
North Paulding | 3 – AAAAAAA | 3-0 | 64.96 | 879,469 | 78,287 | 10,964 | 1,287 | 88 | 11,362.64 |
Central Gwinnett | 7 – AAAAAAA | 1-3 | 63.01 | 938,995 | 91,790 | 7,977 | 1,015 | 66 | 15,150.52 |
Walton | 4 – AAAAAAA | 1-2 | 63.90 | 600,671 | 40,136 | 8,193 | 798 | 44 | 22,726.27 |
Wheeler | 2 – AAAAAAA | 2-1 | 59.03 | 912,326 | 17,433 | 2,582 | 182 | 8 | 124,999.00 |
Newnan | 2 – AAAAAAA | 1-2 | 59.97 | 908,055 | 19,134 | 3,082 | 250 | 7 | 142,856.14 |
Cherokee | 4 – AAAAAAA | 2-2 | 59.66 | 427,052 | 17,236 | 2,598 | 170 | 6 | 166,665.67 |
Mountain View | 6 – AAAAAAA | 3-0 | 57.88 | 680,250 | 13,343 | 1,790 | 90 | 4 | 249,999.00 |
Woodstock | 4 – AAAAAAA | 2-1 | 58.27 | 385,170 | 12,297 | 1,633 | 99 | 3 | 333,332.33 |
Collins Hill | 6 – AAAAAAA | 0-4 | 55.02 | 393,787 | 4,290 | 461 | 16 | 2 | 499,999.00 |
Lambert | 5 – AAAAAAA | 1-2 | 55.94 | 660,278 | 12,254 | 1,048 | 54 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Shiloh | 8 – AAAAAAA | 1-3 | 58.28 | 301,574 | 4,993 | 656 | 42 | – | – |
Marietta | 3 – AAAAAAA | 1-2 | 55.58 | 422,897 | 7,695 | 510 | 18 | – | – |
North Forsyth | 5 – AAAAAAA | 2-1 | 50.57 | 448,127 | 3,197 | 195 | 7 | – | – |
Forsyth Central | 5 – AAAAAAA | 2-0 | 42.27 | 157,186 | 216 | 7 | 1 | – | – |
Pebblebrook | 2 – AAAAAAA | 2-1 | 43.22 | 218,308 | 147 | 3 | – | – | – |
Lakeside (Atlanta) | 7 – AAAAAAA | 2-1 | 37.88 | 115,060 | 168 | 1 | – | – | – |
Kennesaw Mountain | 3 – AAAAAAA | 0-3 | 40.22 | 26,848 | 24 | – | – | – | – |
Duluth | 6 – AAAAAAA | 2-1 | 36.21 | 36,232 | 15 | – | – | – | – |
Berkmar | 7 – AAAAAAA | 0-3 | 22.85 | 3,070 | 1 | – | – | – | – |
Rockdale County | 8 – AAAAAAA | 1-2 | 31.23 | 11,682 | – | – | – | – | – |
Campbell | 2 – AAAAAAA | 0-3 | 26.78 | 9,889 | – | – | – | – | – |
Meadowcreek | 7 – AAAAAAA | 0-3 | 22.48 | 2,779 | – | – | – | – | – |
Discovery | 6 – AAAAAAA | 1-3 | 26.12 | 2,524 | – | – | – | – | – |
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Region
Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.
Teams in Semifinals | Teams in Finals | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Region | Eliminated | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4 | Eliminated | 1+ | 2 | Champion | Odds |
1 – AAAAAA | 81,658 | 918,342 | 613,190 | 230,635 | 35,001 | 182,081 | 817,919 | 263,870 | 653,344 | 0.53 |
5 – AAAAAA | 484,276 | 515,724 | 123,106 | 12,921 | 486 | 742,545 | 257,455 | 14,455 | 101,705 | 8.83 |
2 – AAAAAA | 632,293 | 367,707 | 25,292 | 336 | 1 | 795,285 | 204,715 | 1,040 | 91,025 | 9.99 |
4 – AAAAAA | 611,384 | 388,616 | 46,403 | 952 | 4 | 814,333 | 185,667 | 3,213 | 76,864 | 12.01 |
6 – AAAAAA | 560,773 | 439,227 | 81,312 | 6,355 | 173 | 821,678 | 178,322 | 6,971 | 57,850 | 16.29 |
8 – AAAAAA | 845,840 | 154,160 | 6,273 | 72 | – | 939,707 | 60,293 | 186 | 18,371 | 53.43 |
7 – AAAAAA | 967,926 | 32,074 | 343 | 1 | – | 994,181 | 5,819 | 3 | 840 | 1,189.48 |
3 – AAAAAA | 998,715 | 1,285 | – | – | – | 999,928 | 72 | – | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
Team | Region | Record | Rating | Playoffs | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valdosta | 1 – AAAAAA | 4-0 | 86.61 | 979,836 | 841,065 | 712,821 | 577,075 | 453,614 | 1.20 |
Glynn Academy | 2 – AAAAAA | 3-1 | 76.46 | 999,906 | 659,773 | 354,035 | 199,084 | 90,095 | 10.10 |
Northside (Warner Robins) | 1 – AAAAAA | 4-0 | 76.26 | 863,942 | 575,162 | 371,194 | 199,536 | 86,065 | 10.62 |
Tucker | 4 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 75.47 | 998,061 | 625,495 | 333,066 | 163,961 | 71,552 | 12.98 |
Mays | 5 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 75.65 | 968,385 | 451,605 | 288,819 | 144,846 | 64,243 | 14.57 |
Lee County | 1 – AAAAAA | 3-0 | 74.74 | 788,918 | 489,076 | 301,241 | 140,441 | 56,891 | 16.58 |
Houston County | 1 – AAAAAA | 4-0 | 73.08 | 723,573 | 417,784 | 243,263 | 102,639 | 37,834 | 25.43 |
Harrison | 6 – AAAAAA | 3-0 | 70.77 | 962,856 | 443,159 | 185,440 | 69,866 | 23,554 | 41.46 |
Coffee | 1 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 70.36 | 643,731 | 331,017 | 168,648 | 62,098 | 18,940 | 51.80 |
Dacula | 8 – AAAAAA | 1-2 | 70.01 | 997,485 | 401,437 | 128,376 | 54,860 | 17,605 | 55.80 |
Dalton | 6 – AAAAAA | 3-0 | 69.58 | 951,245 | 397,230 | 153,095 | 54,226 | 16,754 | 58.69 |
Allatoona | 6 – AAAAAA | 0-3 | 69.43 | 937,890 | 384,011 | 144,914 | 50,858 | 15,628 | 62.99 |
Alexander | 5 – AAAAAA | 3-0 | 70.20 | 825,544 | 244,777 | 126,764 | 47,456 | 15,182 | 64.87 |
Creekside | 5 – AAAAAA | 3-0 | 69.33 | 747,118 | 202,139 | 99,093 | 35,514 | 10,588 | 93.45 |
Northgate | 5 – AAAAAA | 3-0 | 67.44 | 729,699 | 165,865 | 74,117 | 23,591 | 6,247 | 159.08 |
Hughes | 5 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 67.63 | 617,837 | 136,034 | 61,585 | 20,198 | 5,403 | 184.08 |
Stephenson | 4 – AAAAAA | 1-2 | 65.19 | 967,819 | 296,862 | 85,917 | 22,506 | 5,077 | 195.97 |
Creekview | 6 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 62.57 | 833,340 | 190,311 | 42,656 | 10,250 | 1,906 | 523.66 |
Brunswick | 2 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 59.59 | 990,127 | 150,244 | 26,494 | 5,084 | 762 | 1,311.34 |
Lanier | 8 – AAAAAA | 1-2 | 59.53 | 976,594 | 103,538 | 18,748 | 3,607 | 509 | 1,963.64 |
Alpharetta | 7 – AAAAAA | 1-2 | 60.46 | 953,575 | 46,967 | 14,748 | 2,833 | 431 | 2,319.19 |
Centennial | 7 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 59.84 | 987,187 | 51,234 | 13,590 | 2,596 | 378 | 2,644.50 |
Gainesville | 8 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 57.71 | 930,760 | 77,713 | 12,483 | 1,954 | 257 | 3,890.05 |
Lovejoy | 4 – AAAAAA | 1-3 | 56.81 | 885,198 | 101,527 | 14,371 | 2,208 | 223 | 4,483.30 |
Effingham County | 2 – AAAAAA | 1-2 | 55.27 | 977,576 | 76,009 | 9,967 | 1,328 | 150 | 6,665.67 |
Douglas County | 5 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 58.01 | 98,031 | 7,690 | 1,839 | 305 | 42 | 23,808.52 |
Johns Creek | 7 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 52.33 | 857,923 | 13,180 | 2,287 | 233 | 19 | 52,630.58 |
Richmond Hill | 2 – AAAAAA | 2-0 | 50.15 | 962,238 | 33,428 | 2,839 | 259 | 18 | 55,554.56 |
Cambridge | 7 – AAAAAA | 1-2 | 51.64 | 828,578 | 11,319 | 1,741 | 156 | 12 | 83,332.33 |
M.L. King | 4 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 50.96 | 553,867 | 22,507 | 2,034 | 168 | 10 | 99,999.00 |
Sprayberry | 6 – AAAAAA | 3-0 | 50.76 | 215,266 | 11,506 | 886 | 90 | 7 | 142,856.14 |
Drew | 4 – AAAAAA | 0-3 | 47.32 | 347,108 | 7,472 | 497 | 33 | 2 | 499,999.00 |
Lakeside (Evans) | 3 – AAAAAA | 0-3 | 44.45 | 882,691 | 3,617 | 318 | 16 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Sequoyah | 6 – AAAAAA | 0-3 | 45.28 | 79,268 | 1,930 | 75 | 3 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Winder-Barrow | 8 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 46.66 | 780,235 | 12,357 | 859 | 57 | – | – |
Evans | 3 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 47.36 | 930,852 | 6,813 | 741 | 50 | – | – |
Heritage (Conyers) | 3 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 42.33 | 815,308 | 2,242 | 159 | 6 | – | – |
Mundy’s Mill | 4 – AAAAAA | 0-3 | 45.17 | 145,305 | 1,740 | 75 | 4 | – | – |
Northview | 7 – AAAAAA | 0-2 | 42.75 | 254,591 | 741 | 53 | 4 | – | – |
Habersham Central | 8 – AAAAAA | 3-0 | 38.04 | 308,569 | 1,095 | 39 | 1 | – | – |
Alcovy | 3 – AAAAAA | 3-1 | 38.46 | 654,712 | 820 | 38 | – | – | – |
Grovetown | 3 – AAAAAA | 1-2 | 37.17 | 547,347 | 540 | 28 | – | – | – |
South Paulding | 5 – AAAAAA | 0-3 | 47.97 | 10,184 | 196 | 22 | – | – | – |
Jonesboro | 4 – AAAAAA | 0-4 | 41.67 | 54,812 | 404 | 17 | – | – | – |
South Cobb | 6 – AAAAAA | 1-2 | 38.64 | 17,873 | 161 | 4 | – | – | – |
Greenbrier | 3 – AAAAAA | 3-0 | 27.56 | 169,090 | 34 | 2 | – | – | – |
Chattahoochee | 7 – AAAAAA | 1-2 | 35.97 | 46,121 | 30 | 1 | – | – | – |
Tri-Cities | 5 – AAAAAA | 0-2 | 41.17 | 1,816 | 15 | 1 | – | – | – |
Mount Zion (Jonesboro) | 4 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 33.42 | 47,830 | 81 | – | – | – | – |
Pope | 7 – AAAAAA | 0-3 | 35.32 | 42,186 | 25 | – | – | – | – |
Dunwoody | 7 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 30.45 | 27,711 | 7 | – | – | – | – |
Bradwell Institute | 2 – AAAAAA | 0-2 | 21.82 | 70,153 | 6 | – | – | – | – |
New Manchester | 5 – AAAAAA | 0-3 | 41.81 | 1,386 | 6 | – | – | – | – |
River Ridge | 6 – AAAAAA | 2-1 | 29.81 | 2,262 | 4 | – | – | – | – |
Apalachee | 8 – AAAAAA | 0-2-1 | 16.61 | 6,357 | – | – | – | – | – |
North Atlanta | 7 – AAAAAA | 1-2 | 26.91 | 2,128 | – | – | – | – | – |
Osborne | 6 – AAAAAA | 0-4 | 14.19 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Forest Park | 4 – AAAAAA | 1-3 | 7.27 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Region
Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.
Teams in Semifinals | Teams in Finals | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Region | Eliminated | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4 | Eliminated | 1+ | 2 | Champion | Odds |
8 – AAAAA | 171,469 | 828,531 | 42,448 | 538 | 2 | 256,477 | 743,523 | 2,333 | 609,184 | 0.64 |
4 – AAAAA | 244,544 | 755,456 | 243,913 | 9,767 | 104 | 603,412 | 396,588 | 24,009 | 147,193 | 5.79 |
2 – AAAAA | 470,897 | 529,103 | 7,942 | 19 | – | 658,643 | 341,357 | 91 | 115,264 | 7.68 |
7 – AAAAA | 491,795 | 508,205 | 102,427 | 7,945 | 206 | 750,122 | 249,878 | 11,000 | 72,581 | 12.78 |
3 – AAAAA | 654,262 | 345,738 | 22,814 | 167 | – | 914,799 | 85,201 | 316 | 28,682 | 33.87 |
5 – AAAAA | 800,414 | 199,586 | 8,640 | 34 | – | 942,075 | 57,925 | 98 | 10,694 | 92.51 |
1 – AAAAA | 856,909 | 143,091 | 7,242 | 141 | 1 | 955,578 | 44,422 | 212 | 9,235 | 107.28 |
6 – AAAAA | 778,919 | 221,081 | 14,690 | 160 | – | 957,307 | 42,693 | 354 | 7,167 | 138.53 |
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
Team | Region | Record | Rating | Playoffs | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buford | 8 – AAAAA | 1-1 | 86.86 | 999,980 | 928,195 | 841,131 | 742,148 | 608,938 | 0.64 |
Stockbridge | 4 – AAAAA | 3-0 | 74.56 | 997,314 | 794,970 | 621,448 | 321,664 | 122,582 | 7.16 |
Ware County | 2 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 74.60 | 999,996 | 758,631 | 530,216 | 340,867 | 115,227 | 7.68 |
Kell | 7 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 70.37 | 990,375 | 725,558 | 302,733 | 160,633 | 47,627 | 20.00 |
Griffin | 3 – AAAAA | 3-0 | 68.11 | 996,172 | 582,208 | 330,996 | 80,391 | 28,254 | 34.39 |
Jones County | 4 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 66.38 | 981,589 | 560,730 | 328,397 | 89,392 | 23,490 | 41.57 |
Carrollton | 7 – AAAAA | 2-0 | 66.73 | 951,993 | 567,671 | 190,735 | 76,038 | 20,243 | 48.40 |
Arabia Mountain | 5 – AAAAA | 4-0 | 64.21 | 998,570 | 455,058 | 180,525 | 55,004 | 10,431 | 94.87 |
Thomas County Central | 1 – AAAAA | 4-0 | 64.10 | 986,070 | 409,781 | 89,023 | 35,013 | 8,296 | 119.54 |
Rome | 7 – AAAAA | 1-2 | 61.85 | 797,402 | 301,346 | 92,233 | 20,159 | 4,310 | 231.02 |
Grady | 6 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 60.87 | 997,014 | 275,145 | 123,250 | 23,734 | 4,248 | 234.40 |
Carver (Atlanta) | 6 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 59.35 | 996,767 | 243,517 | 102,456 | 18,178 | 2,873 | 347.07 |
Woodland (Stockbridge) | 4 – AAAAA | 3-1 | 56.55 | 734,533 | 116,336 | 39,733 | 6,447 | 833 | 1,199.48 |
Bainbridge | 1 – AAAAA | 0-2 | 56.05 | 916,058 | 189,543 | 35,896 | 7,188 | 777 | 1,286.00 |
Starr’s Mill | 3 – AAAAA | 1-2 | 54.02 | 887,195 | 148,362 | 30,728 | 4,506 | 402 | 2,486.56 |
Paulding County | 7 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 53.90 | 591,429 | 114,815 | 22,262 | 2,988 | 322 | 3,104.59 |
Locust Grove | 4 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 53.87 | 588,732 | 51,283 | 14,160 | 2,450 | 248 | 4,031.26 |
Southwest DeKalb | 5 – AAAAA | 2-2 | 52.80 | 976,423 | 118,934 | 22,787 | 2,633 | 238 | 4,200.68 |
Loganville | 8 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 51.63 | 868,375 | 68,271 | 16,738 | 2,408 | 168 | 5,951.38 |
Warner Robins | 1 – AAAAA | 0-3 | 49.46 | 680,166 | 60,213 | 8,971 | 888 | 70 | 14,284.71 |
Clarke Central | 8 – AAAAA | 1-2 | 49.02 | 796,061 | 43,671 | 8,904 | 997 | 62 | 16,128.03 |
Harris County | 1 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 49.24 | 738,479 | 67,530 | 9,783 | 962 | 59 | 16,948.15 |
Riverwood | 6 – AAAAA | 1-2 | 48.26 | 949,961 | 50,769 | 10,115 | 1,132 | 46 | 21,738.13 |
Wayne County | 2 – AAAAA | 0-3 | 47.93 | 988,926 | 30,371 | 5,678 | 544 | 37 | 27,026.03 |
Veterans | 1 – AAAAA | 1-3 | 48.03 | 679,227 | 51,599 | 6,802 | 583 | 33 | 30,302.03 |
Dutchtown | 4 – AAAAA | 1-2 | 50.92 | 234,002 | 14,470 | 3,083 | 424 | 32 | 31,249.00 |
East Paulding | 7 – AAAAA | 0-3 | 51.50 | 155,926 | 21,995 | 3,736 | 400 | 32 | 31,249.00 |
Hiram | 7 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 50.22 | 127,018 | 15,426 | 2,383 | 257 | 24 | 41,665.67 |
Miller Grove | 5 – AAAAA | 3-1 | 46.76 | 925,950 | 43,761 | 4,434 | 354 | 23 | 43,477.26 |
Villa Rica | 7 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 48.49 | 306,831 | 30,984 | 4,289 | 376 | 22 | 45,453.55 |
Cedar Shoals | 8 – AAAAA | 3-0 | 44.36 | 677,257 | 18,915 | 2,852 | 196 | 12 | 83,332.33 |
Riverdale | 3 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 45.79 | 559,594 | 25,892 | 2,386 | 238 | 10 | 99,999.00 |
Fayette County | 3 – AAAAA | 2-0-1 | 45.62 | 633,956 | 29,006 | 2,652 | 214 | 9 | 111,110.11 |
Eagle’s Landing | 4 – AAAAA | 1-2 | 47.26 | 257,876 | 11,388 | 1,971 | 187 | 7 | 142,856.14 |
Whitewater | 3 – AAAAA | 3-0 | 43.87 | 572,077 | 19,709 | 1,584 | 141 | 7 | 142,856.14 |
Flowery Branch | 8 – AAAAA | 1-2 | 43.48 | 559,705 | 13,842 | 1,878 | 107 | 4 | 249,999.00 |
Columbia | 5 – AAAAA | 1-3 | 39.38 | 689,557 | 8,322 | 467 | 28 | 2 | 499,999.00 |
Ola | 4 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 42.15 | 205,782 | 4,357 | 450 | 33 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Cass | 7 – AAAAA | 2-1 | 44.36 | 79,020 | 4,343 | 413 | 27 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
McIntosh | 3 – AAAAA | 3-1 | 40.24 | 349,668 | 6,450 | 376 | 27 | – | – |
Statesboro | 2 – AAAAA | 0-3 | 37.17 | 932,016 | 5,991 | 547 | 21 | – | – |
South Effingham | 2 – AAAAA | 0-3 | 37.96 | 938,217 | 6,774 | 623 | 16 | – | – |
Lithonia | 5 – AAAAA | 0-3 | 33.10 | 371,358 | 1,488 | 47 | 4 | – | – |
Maynard Jackson | 6 – AAAAA | 1-2 | 33.14 | 439,518 | 1,071 | 61 | 2 | – | – |
Decatur | 6 – AAAAA | 1-2 | 32.93 | 370,446 | 849 | 47 | 1 | – | – |
Walnut Grove | 8 – AAAAA | 1-2 | 30.81 | 98,212 | 298 | 18 | – | – | – |
Banneker | 6 – AAAAA | 1-2 | 27.58 | 149,799 | 118 | 2 | – | – | – |
Lithia Springs | 6 – AAAAA | 0-3 | 22.56 | 70,300 | 24 | 1 | – | – | – |
New Hampstead | 2 – AAAAA | 1-3 | 14.53 | 140,845 | 12 | – | – | – | – |
Chamblee | 5 – AAAAA | 0-3 | 17.64 | 38,142 | 6 | – | – | – | – |
North Springs | 6 – AAAAA | 1-1 | 18.30 | 26,195 | 2 | – | – | – | – |
Morrow | 3 – AAAAA | 1-3 | 13.41 | 1,338 | – | – | – | – | – |
Johnson (Gainesville) | 8 – AAAAA | 0-4 | 4.34 | 410 | – | – | – | – | – |
Union Grove | 4 – AAAAA | 0-3-1 | 24.66 | 148 | – | – | – | – | – |
Hampton | 4 – AAAAA | 1-2 | 15.16 | 24 | – | – | – | – | – |
Woodland (Cartersville) | 7 – AAAAA | 0-3 | 16.99 | 6 | – | – | – | – | – |
Clarkston | 5 – AAAAA | 0-4 | -10.73 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Cross Keys | 5 – AAAAA | 0-1 | -25.51 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Region
Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.
Teams in Semifinals | Teams in Finals | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Region | Eliminated | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4 | Eliminated | 1+ | 2 | Champion | Odds |
5 – AAAA | 99,970 | 900,030 | 458,895 | 9,318 | 47 | 183,502 | 816,498 | 269,938 | 707,083 | 0.41 |
7 – AAAA | 168,073 | 831,927 | 338,155 | 450 | – | 617,728 | 382,272 | 37,573 | 157,436 | 5.35 |
3 – AAAA | 666,825 | 333,175 | 22,574 | 63 | – | 795,393 | 204,607 | 3,462 | 69,079 | 13.48 |
4 – AAAA | 798,047 | 201,953 | 8,852 | 59 | – | 892,825 | 107,175 | 250 | 37,161 | 25.91 |
8 – AAAA | 604,007 | 395,993 | 56,716 | 2,479 | 31 | 896,337 | 103,663 | 1,802 | 19,435 | 50.45 |
2 – AAAA | 750,959 | 249,041 | 21,800 | 598 | 3 | 951,722 | 48,278 | 458 | 7,023 | 141.39 |
1 – AAAA | 853,667 | 146,333 | 5,481 | 16 | – | 977,964 | 22,036 | 46 | 2,679 | 372.27 |
6 – AAAA | 984,063 | 15,937 | 72 | – | – | 998,059 | 1,941 | 1 | 104 | 9,614.38 |
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
Team | Region | Record | Rating | Playoffs | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cartersville | 5 – AAAA | 3-0 | 86.87 | 999,947 | 881,875 | 795,646 | 686,300 | 553,348 | 0.81 |
Sandy Creek | 5 – AAAA | 2-1 | 76.61 | 998,823 | 665,995 | 556,822 | 399,061 | 153,681 | 5.51 |
Blessed Trinity | 7 – AAAA | 3-0 | 74.10 | 999,953 | 825,931 | 675,204 | 266,058 | 115,290 | 7.67 |
Thomson | 3 – AAAA | 4-0 | 73.16 | 999,983 | 347,221 | 281,813 | 181,028 | 63,374 | 14.78 |
Marist | 7 – AAAA | 2-1 | 68.49 | 999,728 | 689,542 | 493,935 | 153,703 | 42,144 | 22.73 |
Woodward Academy | 4 – AAAA | 2-1 | 70.25 | 999,715 | 712,501 | 189,006 | 104,296 | 36,962 | 26.05 |
Jefferson | 8 – AAAA | 2-1 | 63.27 | 963,317 | 569,498 | 201,296 | 49,890 | 9,957 | 99.43 |
St. Pius X | 8 – AAAA | 0-3 | 62.80 | 953,104 | 540,209 | 181,021 | 45,106 | 8,472 | 117.04 |
Burke County | 3 – AAAA | 4-0 | 63.11 | 999,415 | 131,960 | 73,038 | 27,021 | 5,704 | 174.32 |
Spalding | 2 – AAAA | 2-1 | 59.55 | 968,589 | 414,163 | 110,186 | 20,930 | 3,212 | 310.33 |
Mary Persons | 2 – AAAA | 3-1 | 59.26 | 966,707 | 404,619 | 105,866 | 20,099 | 3,086 | 323.04 |
Cairo | 1 – AAAA | 2-1 | 58.01 | 981,875 | 210,863 | 98,288 | 16,416 | 2,177 | 458.35 |
Oconee County | 8 – AAAA | 3-0 | 54.91 | 839,430 | 271,486 | 46,604 | 7,244 | 768 | 1,301.08 |
West Laurens | 2 – AAAA | 2-1 | 54.51 | 908,701 | 250,924 | 42,111 | 6,337 | 642 | 1,556.63 |
Carver (Columbus) | 1 – AAAA | 1-2 | 53.70 | 944,348 | 116,838 | 43,421 | 4,972 | 466 | 2,144.92 |
Stephens County | 8 – AAAA | 2-1 | 51.78 | 744,201 | 181,365 | 21,925 | 2,825 | 224 | 4,463.29 |
Eastside | 4 – AAAA | 2-1-1 | 51.19 | 977,758 | 184,696 | 17,438 | 2,926 | 192 | 5,207.33 |
Ridgeland | 6 – AAAA | 3-0 | 49.76 | 993,776 | 123,918 | 10,103 | 1,470 | 88 | 11,362.64 |
Upson-Lee | 2 – AAAA | 2-1 | 49.23 | 823,350 | 120,061 | 13,087 | 1,356 | 83 | 12,047.19 |
LaGrange | 5 – AAAA | 1-3 | 48.88 | 672,323 | 34,779 | 9,556 | 777 | 42 | 23,808.52 |
Hardaway | 1 – AAAA | 2-0 | 47.40 | 809,986 | 34,946 | 8,628 | 631 | 35 | 28,570.43 |
Northwest Whitfield | 6 – AAAA | 2-2 | 46.11 | 984,046 | 68,570 | 4,558 | 425 | 16 | 62,499.00 |
Madison County | 8 – AAAA | 3-0 | 46.26 | 464,992 | 64,013 | 4,367 | 400 | 14 | 71,427.57 |
Troup | 5 – AAAA | 3-1 | 46.26 | 477,518 | 16,786 | 3,830 | 209 | 10 | 99,999.00 |
Salem | 4 – AAAA | 2-1 | 42.63 | 771,501 | 35,413 | 2,663 | 141 | 4 | 249,999.00 |
Luella | 4 – AAAA | 2-2 | 41.05 | 640,004 | 19,954 | 1,582 | 58 | 3 | 333,332.33 |
West Hall | 7 – AAAA | 3-1 | 41.55 | 911,292 | 8,296 | 1,373 | 84 | 2 | 499,999.00 |
Westover | 1 – AAAA | 2-1 | 41.79 | 510,134 | 6,831 | 1,172 | 51 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Cedartown | 5 – AAAA | 3-1 | 42.23 | 405,021 | 7,702 | 1,233 | 45 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Baldwin | 3 – AAAA | 2-1 | 37.04 | 904,015 | 8,215 | 897 | 18 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Central (Carrollton) | 5 – AAAA | 0-3 | 36.94 | 116,176 | 980 | 122 | 4 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Pickens | 6 – AAAA | 1-2 | 39.73 | 935,911 | 23,526 | 1,245 | 46 | – | – |
Chapel Hill | 5 – AAAA | 1-1-1 | 42.25 | 330,192 | 6,235 | 1,081 | 40 | – | – |
Perry | 2 – AAAA | 1-1 | 38.04 | 242,783 | 5,677 | 178 | 12 | – | – |
Americus-Sumter | 1 – AAAA | 1-2 | 36.89 | 245,856 | 1,255 | 136 | 7 | – | – |
North Clayton | 4 – AAAA | 2-2 | 33.76 | 408,676 | 4,121 | 170 | 4 | – | – |
Northside (Columbus) | 1 – AAAA | 2-1 | 35.01 | 167,551 | 547 | 50 | 2 | – | – |
Richmond Academy | 3 – AAAA | 2-0 | 26.81 | 658,192 | 1,073 | 49 | 2 | – | – |
Columbus | 1 – AAAA | 1-2 | 34.87 | 142,477 | 463 | 47 | 2 | – | – |
Howard | 2 – AAAA | 1-3 | 31.99 | 89,870 | 714 | 14 | 2 | – | – |
Heritage (Ringgold) | 6 – AAAA | 3-1 | 30.37 | 684,034 | 3,346 | 104 | 1 | – | – |
Shaw | 1 – AAAA | 1-2 | 36.42 | 197,773 | 891 | 89 | 1 | – | – |
Chestatee | 7 – AAAA | 2-2 | 30.02 | 637,105 | 321 | 16 | – | – | – |
Cross Creek | 3 – AAAA | 3-1 | 22.11 | 424,329 | 329 | 14 | – | – | – |
North Oconee | 8 – AAAA | 0-3 | 28.76 | 34,956 | 363 | 5 | – | – | – |
White County | 7 – AAAA | 0-3 | 26.38 | 451,922 | 126 | 5 | – | – | – |
Henry County | 4 – AAAA | 0-3 | 27.13 | 110,106 | 337 | 4 | – | – | – |
Druid Hills | 4 – AAAA | 1-2 | 26.13 | 92,240 | 225 | 2 | – | – | – |
Southeast Whitfield | 6 – AAAA | 2-1 | 20.81 | 212,919 | 179 | – | – | – | – |
Gilmer | 6 – AAAA | 0-3 | 20.36 | 153,582 | 116 | – | – | – | – |
LaFayette | 6 – AAAA | 2-2 | 10.90 | 35,732 | 6 | – | – | – | – |
Hephzibah | 3 – AAAA | 0-4 | -4.22 | 14,066 | – | – | – | – | – |
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Region
Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.
Teams in Semifinals | Teams in Finals | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Region | Eliminated | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4 | Eliminated | 1+ | 2 | Champion | Odds |
7 – AAA | 321,729 | 678,271 | 55,995 | 455 | 1 | 442,889 | 557,111 | 4,933 | 428,389 | 1.33 |
5 – AAA | 105,222 | 894,778 | 550,688 | 172,691 | 17,200 | 335,570 | 664,430 | 145,896 | 348,178 | 1.87 |
6 – AAA | 488,481 | 511,519 | 31,153 | 408 | 2 | 657,984 | 342,016 | 634 | 152,245 | 5.57 |
4 – AAA | 646,420 | 353,580 | 32,405 | 946 | 8 | 888,602 | 111,398 | 974 | 37,414 | 25.73 |
2 – AAA | 766,010 | 233,990 | 19,233 | 522 | 4 | 928,717 | 71,283 | 763 | 16,430 | 59.86 |
1 – AAA | 741,278 | 258,722 | 25,805 | 1,075 | 16 | 937,022 | 62,978 | 845 | 11,076 | 89.29 |
8 – AAA | 856,596 | 143,404 | 2,676 | 8 | – | 965,327 | 34,673 | 17 | 6,076 | 163.58 |
3 – AAA | 985,607 | 14,393 | 52 | – | – | 997,951 | 2,049 | – | 192 | 5,207.33 |
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
Team | Region | Record | Rating | Playoffs | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Greater Atlanta Christian | 7 – AAA | 2-0 | 73.76 | 999,981 | 745,773 | 686,771 | 552,458 | 427,117 | 1.34 |
Calhoun | 6 – AAA | 1-2 | 64.68 | 996,386 | 815,022 | 511,931 | 339,745 | 152,037 | 5.58 |
Lovett | 5 – AAA | 2-1 | 64.60 | 980,880 | 687,732 | 503,242 | 275,522 | 136,124 | 6.35 |
Cedar Grove | 5 – AAA | 2-1 | 62.21 | 974,574 | 632,794 | 429,493 | 213,260 | 89,800 | 10.14 |
Pace Academy | 5 – AAA | 2-1 | 60.66 | 964,037 | 561,351 | 366,113 | 168,290 | 64,202 | 14.58 |
Westminster (Atlanta) | 5 – AAA | 1-2 | 60.45 | 951,346 | 506,425 | 335,747 | 153,170 | 58,047 | 16.23 |
Peach County | 4 – AAA | 2-1 | 57.61 | 996,622 | 656,622 | 297,415 | 98,151 | 35,708 | 27.00 |
Liberty County | 2 – AAA | 3-0 | 53.47 | 993,474 | 538,382 | 146,151 | 49,634 | 12,925 | 76.37 |
Hart County | 8 – AAA | 0-2-1 | 50.07 | 998,304 | 457,913 | 138,217 | 34,178 | 6,047 | 164.37 |
Monroe | 1 – AAA | 1-1 | 49.33 | 976,242 | 185,394 | 86,400 | 20,514 | 3,851 | 258.67 |
Crisp County | 1 – AAA | 3-0 | 48.83 | 976,170 | 180,215 | 83,633 | 19,422 | 3,384 | 294.51 |
Appling County | 2 – AAA | 1-1 | 48.14 | 966,211 | 307,274 | 68,462 | 16,063 | 2,725 | 365.97 |
Worth County | 1 – AAA | 2-2 | 47.99 | 968,651 | 161,552 | 68,122 | 14,743 | 2,473 | 403.37 |
Cook | 1 – AAA | 0-3 | 46.03 | 953,723 | 130,828 | 47,438 | 9,144 | 1,368 | 729.99 |
North Hall | 7 – AAA | 3-0 | 47.79 | 964,386 | 100,477 | 43,373 | 9,198 | 1,246 | 801.57 |
Westside (Macon) | 4 – AAA | 1-2 | 45.36 | 933,502 | 219,762 | 44,288 | 7,931 | 1,027 | 972.71 |
Pierce County | 2 – AAA | 2-1 | 44.29 | 950,570 | 205,139 | 36,091 | 6,211 | 771 | 1,296.02 |
Jackson | 4 – AAA | 1-2 | 42.50 | 883,543 | 158,812 | 24,489 | 3,526 | 381 | 2,623.67 |
Central (Macon) | 4 – AAA | 3-0 | 41.78 | 866,323 | 144,823 | 20,604 | 2,760 | 298 | 3,354.70 |
Jenkins | 3 – AAA | 2-1 | 41.61 | 999,285 | 55,101 | 11,218 | 1,818 | 177 | 5,648.72 |
Sonoraville | 6 – AAA | 1-2 | 39.43 | 748,197 | 124,584 | 14,242 | 1,664 | 132 | 7,574.76 |
Ringgold | 6 – AAA | 2-1 | 36.89 | 542,710 | 77,054 | 8,125 | 657 | 44 | 22,726.27 |
Morgan County | 8 – AAA | 1-2 | 34.59 | 926,392 | 79,834 | 5,713 | 426 | 27 | 37,036.04 |
Adairsville | 6 – AAA | 0-3 | 35.35 | 640,272 | 63,893 | 5,416 | 401 | 23 | 43,477.26 |
Dawson County | 7 – AAA | 1-0 | 37.23 | 750,697 | 17,744 | 3,296 | 316 | 23 | 43,477.26 |
Southeast Bulloch | 3 – AAA | 0-2 | 35.17 | 996,317 | 19,733 | 3,207 | 231 | 15 | 66,665.67 |
Bremen | 6 – AAA | 1-2 | 32.90 | 571,462 | 41,225 | 2,863 | 169 | 9 | 111,110.11 |
Tattnall County | 2 – AAA | 2-1 | 31.83 | 633,932 | 27,683 | 2,115 | 105 | 8 | 124,999.00 |
Redan | 5 – AAA | 1-2 | 36.56 | 124,987 | 3,857 | 762 | 84 | 5 | 199,999.00 |
Union County | 7 – AAA | 3-0 | 33.18 | 566,271 | 6,604 | 965 | 59 | 3 | 333,332.33 |
Franklin County | 8 – AAA | 1-2 | 30.01 | 833,361 | 33,006 | 1,664 | 75 | 2 | 499,999.00 |
Brantley County | 2 – AAA | 2-1 | 29.98 | 443,034 | 15,016 | 931 | 33 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Jackson County | 8 – AAA | 1-3 | 25.46 | 652,710 | 10,029 | 385 | 11 | – | – |
Lumpkin County | 7 – AAA | 1-1 | 29.18 | 418,983 | 2,508 | 246 | 11 | – | – |
North Murray | 6 – AAA | 2-1 | 26.16 | 255,242 | 8,251 | 301 | 10 | – | – |
Murray County | 6 – AAA | 3-0 | 25.18 | 239,294 | 6,749 | 203 | 4 | – | – |
Pike County | 4 – AAA | 2-1 | 25.19 | 144,072 | 2,763 | 88 | 3 | – | – |
East Hall | 7 – AAA | 1-2 | 25.83 | 220,767 | 780 | 63 | 1 | – | – |
Kendrick | 4 – AAA | 0-4 | 23.49 | 102,807 | 1,517 | 33 | 1 | – | – |
Fannin County | 7 – AAA | 1-2 | 21.18 | 78,915 | 126 | 7 | 1 | – | – |
Monroe Area | 8 – AAA | 1-2 | 21.70 | 477,425 | 3,582 | 109 | – | – | – |
Rutland | 4 – AAA | 1-2 | 22.78 | 73,131 | 964 | 24 | – | – | – |
Dougherty | 1 – AAA | 0-2 | 21.95 | 125,214 | 601 | 23 | – | – | – |
Savannah | 3 – AAA | 1-1 | 14.54 | 696,658 | 231 | 13 | – | – | – |
Beach | 3 – AAA | 0-3 | 12.63 | 556,741 | 116 | 6 | – | – | – |
East Jackson | 8 – AAA | 2-1 | 10.11 | 111,808 | 90 | 1 | – | – | – |
Groves | 3 – AAA | 1-2 | 4.54 | 197,234 | 13 | 1 | – | – | – |
Windsor Forest | 3 – AAA | 1-1 | 6.26 | 316,220 | 26 | – | – | – | – |
Johnson (Savannah) | 3 – AAA | 0-2 | 5.20 | 219,784 | 16 | – | – | – | – |
Long County | 2 – AAA | 1-1 | 8.06 | 12,779 | 7 | – | – | – | – |
Haralson County | 6 – AAA | 0-2 | 4.13 | 4,440 | 4 | – | – | – | – |
McNair | 5 – AAA | 2-1 | 16.43 | 3,353 | 2 | – | – | – | – |
Towers | 5 – AAA | 0-3 | 8.57 | 434 | 1 | – | – | – | – |
Islands | 3 – AAA | 0-3 | -6.28 | 17,761 | – | – | – | – | – |
Coahulla Creek | 6 – AAA | 0-3 | -7.81 | 1,405 | – | – | – | – | – |
Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe | 6 – AAA | 0-3 | -11.91 | 592 | – | – | – | – | – |
Stone Mountain | 5 – AAA | 1-2 | 8.41 | 389 | – | – | – | – | – |
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Region
Each region is shown with the number of times it has teams represented in the semifinals and the finals and the number of times a representative of the region won the state championship along with the associated odds.
Teams in Semifinals | Teams in Finals | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Region | Eliminated | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4 | Eliminated | 1+ | 2 | Champion | Odds |
2 – AA | 193,125 | 806,875 | 123,117 | 1,862 | 7 | 265,370 | 734,630 | 38,695 | 605,082 | 0.65 |
1 – AA | 244,260 | 755,740 | 210,079 | 17,707 | 414 | 361,112 | 638,888 | 65,404 | 275,770 | 2.63 |
5 – AA | 451,589 | 548,411 | 101,415 | 2,045 | 3 | 847,944 | 152,056 | 1,922 | 48,469 | 19.63 |
4 – AA | 431,983 | 568,017 | 116,749 | 1,551 | – | 862,893 | 137,107 | 2,068 | 35,330 | 27.30 |
8 – AA | 788,853 | 211,147 | 7,826 | 30 | – | 869,422 | 130,578 | 952 | 23,592 | 41.39 |
3 – AA | 650,675 | 349,325 | 27,393 | 320 | 1 | 929,293 | 70,707 | 380 | 8,008 | 123.88 |
7 – AA | 938,422 | 61,578 | 1,115 | 5 | – | 979,272 | 20,728 | 18 | 3,540 | 281.49 |
6 – AA | 914,020 | 85,980 | 1,287 | 2 | – | 994,136 | 5,864 | 3 | 209 | 4,783.69 |
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
Team | Region | Record | Rating | Playoffs | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benedictine | 2 – AA | 3-0 | 78.21 | 999,993 | 936,866 | 801,877 | 717,827 | 598,327 | 0.67 |
Fitzgerald | 1 – AA | 2-0 | 68.13 | 999,476 | 852,750 | 566,752 | 472,004 | 203,623 | 3.91 |
Brooks County | 1 – AA | 2-0 | 62.15 | 997,088 | 714,647 | 328,616 | 221,294 | 71,257 | 13.03 |
Callaway | 5 – AA | 3-0 | 59.55 | 999,295 | 702,381 | 492,027 | 132,653 | 47,194 | 20.19 |
Jefferson County | 4 – AA | 3-0 | 57.06 | 999,918 | 836,328 | 477,598 | 113,099 | 33,699 | 28.67 |
Rabun County | 8 – AA | 2-0 | 56.10 | 999,919 | 448,926 | 159,483 | 104,452 | 19,781 | 49.55 |
Vidalia | 2 – AA | 2-1 | 51.06 | 994,467 | 371,350 | 117,148 | 55,004 | 6,748 | 147.19 |
Washington County | 3 – AA | 1-2 | 48.65 | 993,249 | 295,715 | 160,672 | 32,055 | 3,883 | 256.53 |
Elbert County | 8 – AA | 1-1-1 | 49.96 | 999,444 | 217,596 | 58,425 | 27,059 | 3,811 | 261.40 |
Model | 7 – AA | 3-0 | 51.29 | 998,971 | 250,155 | 45,256 | 18,484 | 3,436 | 290.04 |
Dodge County | 3 – AA | 1-2 | 48.24 | 988,738 | 269,013 | 139,904 | 27,940 | 3,235 | 308.12 |
Screven County | 4 – AA | 2-1 | 42.23 | 994,964 | 368,248 | 127,347 | 16,760 | 1,125 | 887.89 |
Dublin | 3 – AA | 4-0 | 43.93 | 981,764 | 173,558 | 74,880 | 10,929 | 887 | 1,126.40 |
Thomasville | 1 – AA | 0-2 | 44.25 | 892,920 | 163,207 | 63,729 | 8,972 | 813 | 1,229.01 |
Heard County | 5 – AA | 3-1 | 41.68 | 957,137 | 178,862 | 74,340 | 10,466 | 657 | 1,521.07 |
Lamar County | 5 – AA | 2-1 | 40.97 | 950,680 | 158,835 | 62,820 | 8,361 | 512 | 1,952.13 |
Laney | 4 – AA | 0-3 | 40.19 | 991,761 | 273,057 | 81,369 | 9,316 | 506 | 1,975.28 |
Spencer | 5 – AA | 2-1 | 37.99 | 887,080 | 77,220 | 22,673 | 2,498 | 106 | 9,432.96 |
Pepperell | 7 – AA | 1-1 | 38.12 | 968,131 | 59,237 | 15,019 | 2,195 | 102 | 9,802.92 |
B.E.S.T. Academy | 6 – AA | 1-3 | 35.25 | 939,642 | 167,821 | 38,789 | 2,757 | 99 | 10,100.01 |
Hapeville Charter | 6 – AA | 1-2 | 35.36 | 870,477 | 135,289 | 30,253 | 2,243 | 90 | 11,110.11 |
Early County | 1 – AA | 0-2-1 | 37.15 | 728,566 | 66,126 | 23,158 | 1,960 | 76 | 13,156.89 |
Therrell | 6 – AA | 2-2 | 32.25 | 767,613 | 70,145 | 12,069 | 620 | 15 | 66,665.67 |
Metter | 2 – AA | 1-1 | 29.93 | 589,532 | 40,257 | 5,915 | 257 | 4 | 249,999.00 |
Washington | 6 – AA | 1-2 | 29.07 | 615,742 | 32,011 | 4,133 | 160 | 4 | 249,999.00 |
Southwest | 3 – AA | 1-2 | 31.46 | 780,184 | 11,978 | 1,576 | 163 | 3 | 333,332.33 |
Swainsboro | 2 – AA | 0-3 | 28.52 | 466,132 | 26,260 | 3,445 | 124 | 3 | 333,332.33 |
Douglass | 6 – AA | 1-2 | 28.66 | 553,072 | 17,943 | 1,843 | 83 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Berrien | 1 – AA | 2-1 | 27.73 | 368,572 | 8,584 | 1,684 | 62 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Rockmart | 7 – AA | 2-1 | 25.34 | 683,180 | 8,200 | 1,242 | 41 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Chattooga | 7 – AA | 1-2 | 24.33 | 630,496 | 6,279 | 922 | 24 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
Bryan County | 2 – AA | 1-1 | 27.58 | 442,258 | 21,441 | 2,588 | 87 | – | – |
Toombs County | 2 – AA | 2-1 | 23.53 | 287,801 | 7,576 | 590 | 18 | – | – |
Banks County | 8 – AA | 1-2 | 19.51 | 752,037 | 11,377 | 648 | 16 | – | – |
Bacon County | 2 – AA | 0-2 | 22.38 | 180,171 | 3,934 | 290 | 6 | – | – |
K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate | 6 – AA | 3-1 | 21.62 | 230,403 | 2,946 | 179 | 4 | – | – |
Putnam County | 8 – AA | 0-3 | 17.13 | 649,625 | 7,142 | 352 | 3 | – | – |
Dade County | 7 – AA | 1-2 | 19.62 | 397,352 | 1,725 | 182 | 2 | – | – |
Jeff Davis | 2 – AA | 0-2 | 14.45 | 39,646 | 246 | 6 | 2 | – | – |
Monticello | 8 – AA | 0-3 | 13.35 | 454,583 | 2,741 | 90 | – | – | – |
Coosa | 7 – AA | 1-2 | 18.05 | 315,949 | 952 | 77 | – | – | – |
Jordan | 5 – AA | 0-3 | 17.65 | 105,749 | 204 | 14 | – | – | – |
Josey | 4 – AA | 1-2 | 13.36 | 329,149 | 151 | 4 | – | – | – |
Temple | 5 – AA | 3-0 | 14.15 | 100,059 | 139 | 3 | – | – | – |
Bleckley County | 3 – AA | 1-3 | 16.01 | 110,830 | 86 | 3 | – | – | – |
South Atlanta | 6 – AA | 1-3 | 14.31 | 23,051 | 61 | 3 | – | – | – |
Northeast | 3 – AA | 0-3 | 17.56 | 115,104 | 124 | 2 | – | – | – |
Social Circle | 8 – AA | 1-3 | 2.84 | 105,120 | 106 | 2 | – | – | – |
Butler | 4 – AA | 1-2 | 12.22 | 276,078 | 92 | 1 | – | – | – |
Oglethorpe County | 8 – AA | 0-2 | -0.48 | 39,272 | 17 | 1 | – | – | – |
East Laurens | 3 – AA | 1-3 | 10.73 | 30,131 | 11 | 1 | – | – | – |
Harlem | 4 – AA | 1-2 | 10.09 | 190,412 | 42 | – | – | – | – |
Glenn Hills | 4 – AA | 1-2 | 7.47 | 115,821 | 19 | – | – | – | – |
Westside (Augusta) | 4 – AA | 1-2 | 6.82 | 101,897 | 12 | – | – | – | – |
Albany | 1 – AA | 0-3 | 10.04 | 13,378 | 12 | – | – | – | – |
Armuchee | 7 – AA | 1-2 | -1.15 | 5,702 | – | – | – | – | – |
Gordon Central | 7 – AA | 0-3 | -14.05 | 219 | – | – | – | – | – |
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
Team | Region | Record | Rating | Playoffs | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Macon County | 4 – A | 2-1 | 52.74 | 985,704 | 781,285 | 600,867 | 437,129 | 305,001 | 2.28 |
Clinch County | 2 – A | 2-1 | 49.71 | 999,774 | 781,465 | 557,891 | 355,920 | 212,727 | 3.70 |
Emanuel County Institute | 3 – A | 3-0 | 45.73 | 999,990 | 717,110 | 426,103 | 232,434 | 109,274 | 8.15 |
Manchester | 4 – A | 3-0 | 45.12 | 999,560 | 608,835 | 357,487 | 181,947 | 84,847 | 10.79 |
Marion County | 4 – A | 3-0 | 44.37 | 967,374 | 494,950 | 283,494 | 139,623 | 61,303 | 15.31 |
Irwin County | 2 – A | 1-2 | 43.73 | 981,532 | 554,473 | 302,147 | 143,154 | 60,661 | 15.49 |
Lincoln County | 7 – A | 2-0-1 | 42.75 | 996,712 | 591,283 | 305,276 | 139,811 | 55,111 | 17.15 |
Commerce | 8 – A | 3-0 | 42.08 | 999,999 | 657,702 | 319,044 | 143,005 | 54,249 | 17.43 |
Bowdon | 6 – A | 2-1 | 39.66 | 942,055 | 380,824 | 169,373 | 64,368 | 21,176 | 46.22 |
Mount Zion (Carroll) | 6 – A | 3-0 | 36.51 | 983,302 | 353,714 | 132,928 | 40,989 | 10,896 | 90.78 |
McIntosh County Academy | 3 – A | 2-1 | 36.74 | 985,443 | 330,298 | 127,695 | 40,131 | 10,772 | 91.83 |
Seminole County | 1 – A | 2-0-1 | 32.39 | 999,601 | 439,127 | 140,301 | 31,753 | 6,003 | 165.58 |
Turner County | 2 – A | 1-2 | 33.25 | 542,765 | 112,833 | 35,936 | 9,020 | 1,905 | 523.93 |
Charlton County | 2 – A | 0-2 | 32.66 | 397,681 | 79,333 | 23,575 | 5,796 | 1,157 | 863.30 |
Johnson County | 3 – A | 4-0 | 29.38 | 980,293 | 159,448 | 38,446 | 7,219 | 1,146 | 871.60 |
Greene County | 7 – A | 3-0 | 30.61 | 769,060 | 119,736 | 31,771 | 6,462 | 1,106 | 903.16 |
Trion | 6 – A | 2-1 | 30.50 | 699,533 | 110,400 | 29,127 | 5,904 | 984 | 1,015.26 |
Mitchell County | 1 – A | 3-0 | 26.16 | 997,777 | 272,529 | 53,062 | 7,649 | 894 | 1,117.57 |
Gordon Lee | 6 – A | 3-0 | 26.01 | 609,370 | 52,946 | 10,032 | 1,418 | 165 | 6,059.61 |
Twiggs County | 7 – A | 2-1 | 27.29 | 281,180 | 29,990 | 6,351 | 1,006 | 118 | 8,473.58 |
Washington-Wilkes | 7 – A | 0-3 | 29.93 | 76,646 | 13,744 | 3,218 | 657 | 104 | 9,614.38 |
Taylor County | 4 – A | 3-0 | 25.06 | 424,170 | 33,923 | 6,001 | 762 | 77 | 12,986.01 |
Warren County | 7 – A | 3-0 | 23.88 | 462,069 | 31,944 | 5,333 | 642 | 70 | 14,284.71 |
Hawkinsville | 4 – A | 2-1 | 26.26 | 264,725 | 24,138 | 4,912 | 720 | 66 | 15,150.52 |
Pelham | 1 – A | 2-1 | 19.97 | 947,662 | 79,291 | 9,650 | 813 | 60 | 16,665.67 |
Dooly County | 4 – A | 0-3 | 28.29 | 36,594 | 4,055 | 937 | 164 | 24 | 41,665.67 |
Hancock Central | 7 – A | 1-1 | 22.40 | 196,647 | 11,804 | 1,748 | 199 | 23 | 43,477.26 |
Jenkins County | 3 – A | 3-0 | 19.73 | 935,569 | 45,025 | 5,444 | 480 | 21 | 47,618.05 |
Atkinson County | 2 – A | 1-2 | 21.99 | 193,947 | 10,706 | 1,441 | 169 | 20 | 49,999.00 |
Telfair County | 2 – A | 1-1 | 20.75 | 246,026 | 11,875 | 1,526 | 156 | 14 | 71,427.57 |
Miller County | 1 – A | 1-1 | 16.24 | 906,564 | 40,948 | 3,712 | 226 | 12 | 83,332.33 |
Terrell County | 1 – A | 1-2 | 15.48 | 790,928 | 25,095 | 2,115 | 133 | 7 | 142,856.14 |
Randolph-Clay | 1 – A | 2-0 | 14.41 | 847,041 | 29,338 | 2,238 | 94 | 5 | 199,999.00 |
Wilkinson County | 7 – A | 0-3 | 22.16 | 17,466 | 1,179 | 156 | 12 | 2 | 499,999.00 |
Chattahoochee County | 1 – A | 0-2 | 12.36 | 363,317 | 5,452 | 356 | 19 | – | – |
Wilcox County | 2 – A | 1-2 | 18.49 | 28,528 | 1,060 | 119 | 11 | – | – |
Crawford County | 4 – A | 1-0 | 17.19 | 48,378 | 1,338 | 135 | 5 | – | – |
Treutlen | 3 – A | 2-1 | 14.85 | 28,070 | 619 | 48 | – | – | – |
Towns County | 8 – A | 1-2 | 1.74 | 61,804 | 138 | 3 | – | – | – |
Schley County | 4 – A | 2-1 | 16.08 | 1,116 | 43 | 2 | – | – | – |
Wheeler County | 3 – A | 2-1 | 2.70 | 257 | 2 | – | – | – | – |
Calhoun County | 1 – A | 0-2 | -6.45 | 2,041 | 1 | – | – | – | – |
Lanier County | 2 – A | 0-3 | 1.24 | 21 | 1 | – | – | – | – |
Baconton Charter | 1 – A | 1-1 | -8.57 | 1,633 | – | – | – | – | – |
Stewart County | 1 – A | 1-2 | -19.21 | 37 | – | – | – | – | – |
Claxton | 3 – A | 0-3 | 3.54 | 22 | – | – | – | – | – |
Portal | 3 – A | 0-3 | 5.50 | 12 | – | – | – | – | – |
Greenville | 4 – A | 0-4 | 10.14 | 5 | – | – | – | – | – |
Central (Talbotton) | 4 – A | 0-2 | -6.57 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Montgomery County | 3 – A | 0-3 | -7.97 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Fulton Leadership Academy | 5 – A | 0-3 | -20.65 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
Team | Region | Record | Rating | Playoffs | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eagle’s Landing Christian | 5 – A | 3-0 | 65.87 | 1,000,000 | 943,110 | 841,677 | 722,550 | 606,207 | 0.65 |
Prince Avenue Christian | 8 – A | 4-0 | 53.32 | 1,000,000 | 820,663 | 573,844 | 347,117 | 124,924 | 7.00 |
Wesleyan | 5 – A | 3-0 | 52.16 | 1,000,000 | 792,210 | 500,353 | 228,138 | 90,257 | 10.08 |
Calvary Day | 3 – A | 3-0 | 50.71 | 1,000,000 | 708,389 | 398,566 | 184,930 | 63,320 | 14.79 |
Landmark Christian | 5 – A | 3-0 | 48.03 | 1,000,000 | 707,263 | 351,632 | 140,266 | 40,885 | 23.46 |
Darlington | 6 – A | 2-1 | 45.99 | 999,988 | 584,163 | 260,822 | 98,181 | 23,771 | 41.07 |
Aquinas | 7 – A | 1-2 | 44.48 | 994,121 | 409,227 | 183,354 | 55,294 | 13,340 | 73.96 |
First Presbyterian | 7 – A | 3-0 | 42.47 | 999,982 | 500,073 | 178,349 | 53,702 | 10,394 | 95.21 |
Mount Paran Christian | 6 – A | 2-1 | 41.85 | 999,978 | 370,009 | 126,410 | 36,965 | 6,956 | 142.76 |
Savannah Christian | 3 – A | 2-1 | 41.39 | 999,935 | 339,581 | 119,686 | 32,742 | 5,941 | 167.32 |
Fellowship Christian | 6 – A | 3-0 | 38.98 | 999,999 | 371,793 | 105,231 | 24,888 | 3,685 | 270.37 |
Stratford Academy | 7 – A | 2-1 | 39.22 | 994,114 | 264,282 | 83,387 | 19,397 | 2,990 | 333.45 |
Mount Pisgah Christian | 6 – A | 3-0 | 39.08 | 998,020 | 253,550 | 79,851 | 19,016 | 2,811 | 354.75 |
Pinecrest Academy | 6 – A | 1-1 | 38.74 | 999,496 | 266,397 | 77,977 | 18,064 | 2,696 | 369.92 |
Athens Academy | 8 – A | 3-0 | 35.29 | 1,000,000 | 362,192 | 77,931 | 14,473 | 1,543 | 647.09 |
Athens Christian | 8 – A | 1-2 | 29.56 | 997,078 | 92,229 | 14,421 | 1,612 | 126 | 7,935.51 |
Tattnall Square | 7 – A | 2-0 | 29.60 | 976,922 | 70,581 | 11,378 | 1,280 | 85 | 11,763.71 |
Holy Innocents | 5 – A | 1-2 | 28.53 | 917,541 | 40,604 | 6,290 | 693 | 39 | 25,640.03 |
Brookstone | 4 – A | 1-2 | 28.02 | 557,684 | 24,667 | 2,946 | 321 | 23 | 43,477.26 |
George Walton Academy | 8 – A | 3-0 | 23.15 | 999,760 | 40,217 | 3,552 | 246 | 5 | 199,999.00 |
Our Lady of Mercy | 5 – A | 1-2 | 21.80 | 629,836 | 10,491 | 799 | 61 | 2 | 499,999.00 |
Savannah Country Day | 3 – A | 2-1 | 20.08 | 774,904 | 9,635 | 649 | 29 | – | – |
Hebron Christian Academy | 8 – A | 2-1 | 15.66 | 934,783 | 5,942 | 273 | 14 | – | – |
Mount de Sales | 7 – A | 2-1 | 19.79 | 290,501 | 3,494 | 208 | 9 | – | – |
Mount Vernon Presbyterian | 5 – A | 3-0 | 15.44 | 989,019 | 5,403 | 254 | 7 | – | – |
Strong Rock Christian | 5 – A | 2-1 | 9.37 | 281,157 | 518 | 14 | 3 | – | – |
Christian Heritage | 6 – A | 0-2 | 18.95 | 226,674 | 2,414 | 127 | 2 | – | – |
St. Francis | 6 – A | 1-1 | 10.91 | 259,546 | 639 | 16 | – | – | – |
Walker | 6 – A | 0-3 | 13.53 | 41,627 | 177 | 3 | – | – | – |
King’s Ridge Christian | 6 – A | 2-1 | 9.01 | 24,450 | 43 | – | – | – | – |
Lakeview Academy | 8 – A | 0-3 | -1.59 | 60,471 | 19 | – | – | – | – |
Riverside Military Academy | 8 – A | 1-2 | 2.57 | 30,732 | 17 | – | – | – | – |
Pacelli | 4 – A | 0-3 | 8.97 | 4,118 | 8 | – | – | – | – |
Providence Christian | 8 – A | 1-2 | -9.68 | 17,196 | – | – | – | – | – |
Whitefield Academy | 6 – A | 0-3 | 0.98 | 335 | – | – | – | – | – |
North Cobb Christian | 6 – A | 0-3 | -1.73 | 33 | – | – | – | – | – |
Got something to say?
You must be logged in to post a comment.