Maxwell playoff projections after Week 2

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2016 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.


Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 2-0 93.69 999,969 845,664 622,157 394,715 259,641 2.85
Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 1-0 90.30 999,934 748,510 633,987 469,635 224,822 3.45
Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 0-2 92.75 999,169 836,527 593,286 339,815 216,254 3.62
Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 0-1 88.45 999,565 811,473 481,225 231,662 114,058 7.77
McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 1-0 88.84 999,854 799,996 383,537 203,501 104,841 8.54
Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 1-1 83.12 996,242 632,671 359,764 141,104 45,347 21.05
Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 2-0 76.68 999,480 409,598 175,424 51,606 10,392 95.23
Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 1-1 76.69 981,407 231,955 115,312 38,501 7,540 131.63
Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 2-0 74.78 999,051 324,112 114,132 29,412 5,299 187.71
Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 1-1 72.29 894,695 248,066 71,122 16,094 2,215 450.47
Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 0-2 72.22 918,524 224,526 55,103 12,549 1,669 598.16
Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 2-0 71.19 997,380 238,733 61,281 12,384 1,660 601.41
North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 2-0 71.25 988,127 230,611 48,360 11,541 1,476 676.51
Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 1-0 70.83 975,616 211,545 43,381 9,873 1,220 818.67
North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 1-1 70.51 946,917 126,974 41,258 7,856 949 1,052.74
South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 2-0 70.11 928,004 127,805 40,877 7,444 843 1,185.24
Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 2-0 68.61 837,219 131,272 23,377 4,148 431 2,319.19
Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 0-1 65.44 981,742 114,558 28,896 4,037 356 2,807.99
East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 1-0 65.87 987,181 113,715 28,066 3,883 310 3,224.81
Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 1-1 66.49 909,728 83,518 19,271 3,033 259 3,860.00
North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 2-0 65.91 939,929 81,730 12,755 1,873 141 7,091.20
Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 1-1 62.85 979,335 94,024 10,470 1,823 99 10,100.01
Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 0-2 62.16 731,749 38,783 6,298 688 47 21,275.60
Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 0-2 60.86 967,404 80,535 6,828 697 38 26,314.79
Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 0-2 62.92 683,385 32,157 5,053 502 29 34,481.76
South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 1-1 59.32 961,007 49,882 4,381 559 23 43,477.26
Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 1-1 61.62 649,498 19,289 3,217 298 16 62,499.00
Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 1-1 58.63 920,236 25,938 3,436 259 11 90,908.09
West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 1-1 55.44 919,135 18,905 1,211 84 6 166,665.67
Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 1-0-1 60.37 494,783 11,843 1,746 149 4 249,999.00
Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 2-0 57.82 696,078 19,402 2,162 134 1 999,999.00
Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 1-1 54.14 861,152 10,416 901 43 1 999,999.00
Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 1-1 54.44 479,890 7,976 644 36 1 999,999.00
Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 0-1 52.32 800,839 8,368 458 24 1 999,999.00
Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 2-0 54.79 446,352 5,788 483 33
Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 0-1 50.21 255,740 2,135 106 5
Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 0-2 48.94 151,585 451 19
Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 1-0 43.39 270,137 298 10
North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 1-1 40.03 273,497 214 6
Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-1 31.67 77,306 15
Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 1-1 27.74 25,221 11
Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 0-1 38.16 22,521 9
Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 1-1 32.25 14,198 1
Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-1 30.79 14,189 1
Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 0-1 22.01 10,203
Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-2 24.61 9,710
Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-2 20.26 4,631
Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 0-2 19.95 486

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 2-0 80.92 967,864 829,598 639,150 504,933 382,379 1.62
Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 1-0 75.36 999,884 734,856 398,650 278,111 163,790 5.11
Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 2-0 72.47 838,001 566,170 358,231 188,655 87,651 10.41
Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 2-0 72.38 831,935 560,305 356,004 190,061 86,544 10.55
Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 1-0 68.81 981,673 571,091 294,047 118,602 48,404 19.66
Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 1-1 67.07 999,597 508,701 231,161 113,768 37,465 25.69
Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 2-0 69.15 667,184 381,695 214,875 88,400 34,423 28.05
Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 2-0 68.32 906,887 356,902 209,974 90,900 33,929 28.47
Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 2-0 67.23 695,016 375,201 194,222 75,479 25,236 38.63
Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 1-1 65.25 985,335 448,408 185,998 70,433 21,483 45.55
Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 0-2 65.55 953,182 423,597 178,775 60,771 19,799 49.51
Mays 5 – AAAAAA 0-1 66.93 812,798 265,941 143,288 56,569 19,684 49.80
Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 1-0 65.02 793,331 218,041 105,603 36,149 11,089 89.18
Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 2-0 62.70 918,136 301,001 102,848 30,194 7,833 126.67
Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 1-0 63.01 642,168 132,930 56,604 16,954 4,488 221.82
Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 1-1 60.75 988,820 126,029 50,715 16,968 3,642 273.57
Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 0-2 59.72 940,613 238,808 67,685 16,479 3,564 279.58
Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 1-1 59.62 993,945 202,071 51,672 14,773 2,868 347.68
Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 1-0 60.48 528,395 83,471 30,671 7,776 1,769 564.29
Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 1-1 57.26 950,566 184,179 43,344 8,801 1,629 612.87
Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 1-0 57.41 807,416 141,222 32,573 6,830 1,251 798.36
Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 1-0 55.09 955,096 47,249 12,164 2,515 353 2,831.86
Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 1-1 53.56 944,978 78,150 12,603 2,076 278 3,596.12
Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 0-1 51.95 972,099 73,428 10,880 1,695 198 5,049.51
South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-1 55.90 266,117 23,173 6,343 1,102 178 5,616.98
Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 0-2 48.23 949,245 37,404 3,863 396 37 27,026.03
Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 0-2 47.72 367,292 12,336 1,121 122 6 166,665.67
Northview 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 45.58 579,237 5,694 724 52 6 166,665.67
Drew 4 – AAAAAA 0-2 46.82 444,307 15,451 1,449 139 5 199,999.00
Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 1-0 42.94 914,791 14,263 948 62 4 249,999.00
Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 45.51 643,791 6,318 773 52 4 249,999.00
Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 0-2 42.81 953,186 7,555 915 50 4 249,999.00
Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 1-0 45.71 215,321 5,673 465 37 3 333,332.33
Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 1-1 38.65 831,899 2,589 208 9 2 499,999.00
Evans 3 – AAAAAA 0-1 41.55 921,786 5,668 567 39 1 999,999.00
M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 1-1 41.84 202,545 2,944 177 16 1 999,999.00
Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 1-1 42.99 498,617 3,071 310 17
New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 0-1 45.50 24,676 452 53 6
Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 1-1 38.10 687,681 4,069 177 5
Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 0-2 39.98 83,140 750 28 1
Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 1-0 44.81 19,608 296 23 1
Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-1 40.82 6,020 58 7 1
South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 1-1 36.44 34,558 152 4 1
Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 0-2 40.33 64,518 624 38
Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 2-0 34.01 672,747 759 24
Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 1-0 31.78 360,707 661 16
Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 1-1 37.17 223,960 483 16
Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 0-1 29.70 515,886 247 5
Pope 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 33.43 101,579 94 5
Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 1-1 30.79 44,824 104 3
Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 0-1 24.11 164,268 54 1
Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 1-0 19.07 104,496 10
River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 2-0 28.68 6,574 3
North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 25.25 8,201 1
Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 0-1 13.23 12,805
Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 17.34 699
Osborne 6 – AAAAAA 0-2 18.85
Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA 1-1 5.22

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Buford 8 – AAAAA 0-1 82.11 999,980 931,952 842,785 762,280 615,867 0.62
Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 1-0 71.84 996,724 790,382 686,787 408,001 161,022 5.21
Kell 7 – AAAAA 1-0 69.88 984,472 786,954 447,251 263,710 96,599 9.35
Ware County 2 – AAAAA 0-1 65.98 999,932 638,815 355,958 185,216 48,253 19.72
Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 1-0 63.26 941,113 598,269 230,158 95,482 24,904 39.15
Jones County 4 – AAAAA 1-1 61.51 960,377 421,492 279,484 71,020 17,215 57.09
Grady 6 – AAAAA 2-0 58.50 997,143 350,083 206,136 41,746 9,015 109.93
Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 2-0 57.19 997,014 317,218 180,317 33,683 6,563 151.37
Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 0-1 57.96 983,794 328,028 75,529 27,048 5,450 182.49
Griffin 3 – AAAAA 1-0 55.27 936,908 332,226 115,697 18,610 3,290 302.95
Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 2-0 55.40 975,303 267,059 53,717 15,832 2,588 385.40
Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 0-1 53.95 919,095 270,413 82,286 13,100 1,906 523.66
Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 2-0 53.12 987,348 275,443 72,301 13,912 1,633 611.37
Rome 7 – AAAAA 0-1 54.58 651,650 221,160 55,571 9,564 1,465 681.59
East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 0-1 53.83 604,325 190,879 45,536 7,530 1,059 943.29
Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 1-0 52.68 751,589 108,622 41,612 6,840 882 1,132.79
Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 1-0 49.92 868,063 171,875 40,297 4,798 480 2,082.33
Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 1-1 50.77 686,855 73,505 23,478 3,310 352 2,839.91
Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 2-0 48.92 966,353 149,583 29,930 3,649 326 3,066.48
Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 1-1 50.55 342,325 78,628 14,932 2,051 238 4,200.68
Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 0-1 46.82 970,832 88,270 21,125 2,449 199 5,024.13
Loganville 8 – AAAAA 1-0 46.77 917,002 68,580 14,248 1,932 124 8,063.52
South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-1 46.88 989,579 55,153 13,467 1,604 119 8,402.36
Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 0-1 46.48 990,241 45,750 11,337 1,314 108 9,258.26
Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 0-2 46.93 763,585 81,709 12,289 1,272 90 11,110.11
Cass 7 – AAAAA 1-0 48.31 286,991 50,957 8,242 920 83 12,047.19
Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 1-1 44.71 852,247 44,265 8,652 948 53 18,866.92
Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 2-0 44.65 539,233 37,366 4,869 499 34 29,410.76
Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 0-1 41.67 784,575 24,718 3,951 326 23 43,477.26
Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 2-0 41.66 865,959 34,463 3,870 257 12 83,332.33
Harris County 1 – AAAAA 1-1 41.32 684,628 33,572 3,507 180 8 124,999.00
Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-1 39.50 970,794 13,371 2,140 126 8 124,999.00
McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 2-0 41.25 504,178 22,341 2,188 121 8 124,999.00
Hiram 7 – AAAAA 1-0 44.61 115,922 12,782 1,578 118 6 166,665.67
Ola 4 – AAAAA 2-0 42.17 288,795 9,773 1,440 119 4 249,999.00
Columbia 5 – AAAAA 1-1 39.88 788,273 21,571 1,994 113 4 249,999.00
Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 0-1 43.74 131,131 5,409 875 69 4 249,999.00
Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 0-1 42.05 181,043 5,926 823 77 3 333,332.33
Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 1-1 42.04 73,154 5,570 523 31 2 499,999.00
Veterans 1 – AAAAA 0-2 40.14 592,690 23,823 2,281 112 1 999,999.00
Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 1-0 34.40 374,877 3,245 319 11
Decatur 6 – AAAAA 1-1 33.69 658,173 3,208 229 9
Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 0-0-1 36.13 231,546 3,871 205 9
Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 0-2 31.24 340,296 1,437 80 2
Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 0-1 21.52 96,696 33 3
Banneker 6 – AAAAA 1-0 23.68 146,317 111 2
Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 0-1 21.84 69,433 47 1
Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-1 22.03 126,263 52
Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 0-2 19.29 51,771 20
Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 0-2 29.55 3,431 20
Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-1 18.43 48 1
New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 0-2 9.36 49,454
North Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-1 9.39 7,562
Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-2 4.35 1,886
Morrow 3 – AAAAA 1-1 11.67 977
Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-0 12.82 55
Clarkston 5 – AAAAA 0-2 -7.62
Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA 0-0 -28.87

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Cartersville 5 – AAAA 1-0 80.11 999,917 915,116 805,379 662,571 520,960 0.92
Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 0-1 70.95 998,743 762,491 609,986 404,740 162,163 5.17
Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 2-0 70.30 999,969 813,942 617,673 273,767 135,572 6.38
Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 1-1 65.95 999,727 738,561 233,992 126,775 48,636 19.56
Jefferson 8 – AAAA 2-0 64.38 991,411 717,564 377,693 149,777 46,115 20.68
St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-1 63.62 987,370 658,670 306,325 111,477 33,285 29.04
Marist 7 – AAAA 0-1 61.00 999,286 556,233 288,154 82,173 20,116 48.71
Thomson 3 – AAAA 2-0 60.00 999,468 225,729 149,112 62,919 13,657 72.22
Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 1-1 56.80 986,105 292,878 125,405 31,819 5,743 173.13
Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 1-1 56.60 978,657 371,873 113,761 24,415 4,814 206.73
Burke County 3 – AAAA 2-0 55.83 998,836 127,135 63,903 19,393 3,217 309.85
Cairo 1 – AAAA 1-0 52.64 972,968 193,687 66,158 12,354 1,643 607.64
West Laurens 2 – AAAA 1-0 52.90 943,452 263,434 60,628 10,541 1,528 653.45
Eastside 4 – AAAA 1-0-1 50.87 985,490 301,982 43,650 9,157 1,015 984.22
Oconee County 8 – AAAA 1-0 50.70 839,689 221,971 37,156 6,063 693 1,442.00
Stephens County 8 – AAAA 1-0 48.25 842,274 163,111 20,269 2,684 255 3,920.57
Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 1-0 47.11 874,429 136,374 19,692 2,347 183 5,463.48
Pickens 6 – AAAA 1-0 45.90 990,809 136,389 15,099 2,441 157 6,368.43
LaGrange 5 – AAAA 1-1 46.82 802,071 50,061 12,376 1,414 93 10,751.69
Spalding 2 – AAAA 0-1 46.39 818,316 98,347 11,780 1,357 90 11,110.11
Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 2-0 42.83 975,808 80,013 6,873 837 34 29,410.76
Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 1-0 40.20 962,083 47,093 3,201 267 10 99,999.00
Salem 4 – AAAA 1-0 40.10 838,249 38,134 2,816 216 8 124,999.00
Westover 1 – AAAA 0-1 40.68 579,543 12,258 1,886 137 5 199,999.00
Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-2 40.17 607,273 13,039 1,892 121 4 249,999.00
Baldwin 3 – AAAA 2-0 38.16 937,993 13,625 1,686 78 2 499,999.00
Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 1-0 37.55 399,452 4,452 498 29 1 999,999.00
West Hall 7 – AAAA 1-1 31.61 836,922 3,178 262 6 1 999,999.00
Hardaway 1 – AAAA 2-0 38.25 462,827 5,885 814 53
North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-1 34.85 191,808 6,701 288 21
Perry 2 – AAAA 1-0 35.82 333,779 8,135 383 13
Shaw 1 – AAAA 0-1 35.68 266,848 2,159 245 10
Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 0-0-1 34.83 218,022 1,828 181 7
Madison County 8 – AAAA 1-0 32.21 147,448 3,294 106 6
Troup 5 – AAAA 1-1 34.29 227,159 1,826 157 5
Columbus 1 – AAAA 1-0 33.19 167,096 732 69 5
Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 0-1 30.92 165,161 517 38 2
North Clayton 4 – AAAA 1-1 30.18 329,247 2,192 87 1
Luella 4 – AAAA 0-2 31.14 390,692 2,480 73 1
Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-1 28.49 261,591 1,284 41 1
Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 1-0 27.39 771,340 1,844 84
Cedartown 5 – AAAA 1-1 31.02 146,815 636 31
Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 2-0 24.68 540,328 1,081 27
White County 7 – AAAA 0-1 24.50 636,365 425 24
Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 1-1 27.47 195,004 745 23
Chestatee 7 – AAAA 1-1 23.12 527,458 267 11
Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 1-1 20.89 295,027 239 6
Howard 2 – AAAA 0-2 25.58 51,367 182 3
Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-2 19.55 198,329 147 3
Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 1-1 15.17 278,149 57 1
LaFayette 6 – AAAA 1-1 9.22 37,616 4
Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-2 -6.27 14,214

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 2-0 70.09 999,974 771,719 711,417 569,737 426,321 1.35
Calhoun 6 – AAA 1-1 63.46 998,891 855,758 588,824 422,855 207,313 3.82
Lovett 5 – AAA 1-1 60.27 981,397 654,207 439,611 215,228 99,328 9.07
Pace Academy 5 – AAA 1-0 59.13 976,548 609,675 387,930 182,342 77,796 11.85
Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 1-1 58.42 966,316 569,744 353,200 160,898 65,569 14.25
Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 0-2 56.82 959,221 524,884 314,450 128,798 48,258 19.72
Hart County 8 – AAA 0-0-1 52.25 999,353 652,219 300,255 103,854 26,873 36.21
Peach County 4 – AAA 0-1 52.00 996,529 586,213 235,747 69,532 20,747 47.20
Liberty County 2 – AAA 1-0 48.64 987,683 430,229 109,375 32,876 7,663 129.50
Monroe 1 – AAA 1-0 48.81 985,847 246,054 120,762 32,758 7,091 140.02
Pierce County 2 – AAA 1-0 46.01 982,051 360,488 77,838 19,652 3,824 260.51
Cook 1 – AAA 0-2 44.70 971,542 161,085 60,426 12,075 2,029 491.85
Worth County 1 – AAA 1-1 44.80 970,589 159,656 59,279 11,775 1,979 504.31
Jackson 4 – AAA 1-1 43.74 969,999 265,562 60,146 10,776 1,731 576.70
Crisp County 1 – AAA 2-0 43.72 964,867 152,432 55,420 10,508 1,698 587.93
Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 1-1 40.36 935,725 165,878 27,949 4,143 512 1,952.13
North Hall 7 – AAA 2-0 42.87 955,262 76,227 23,203 3,936 504 1,983.13
Appling County 2 – AAA 0-1 40.68 913,308 167,728 26,266 4,110 500 1,999.00
Adairsville 6 – AAA 0-2 33.54 845,505 140,812 13,767 1,624 109 9,173.31
Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 1-0 35.64 845,060 91,130 9,000 841 68 14,704.88
Dawson County 7 – AAA 1-0 35.41 823,220 21,105 3,355 306 31 32,257.06
Jenkins 3 – AAA 1-0 31.64 996,104 22,645 2,820 270 9 111,110.11
Ringgold 6 – AAA 1-1 30.75 567,266 48,430 3,175 177 7 142,856.14
Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 0-1 29.98 996,307 17,049 2,006 157 7 142,856.14
Union County 7 – AAA 1-0 31.42 686,547 8,634 1,233 75 7 142,856.14
Brantley County 2 – AAA 1-1 27.00 460,754 14,799 788 37 7 142,856.14
Franklin County 8 – AAA 1-1 28.80 792,378 43,412 2,296 136 5 199,999.00
Sonoraville 6 – AAA 0-1 26.93 591,430 33,625 2,063 136 5 199,999.00
Jackson County 8 – AAA 1-1 25.59 729,199 23,696 971 33 3 333,332.33
Morgan County 8 – AAA 0-1 28.22 773,215 38,262 2,058 107 2 499,999.00
Tattnall County 2 – AAA 1-1 27.06 543,155 16,993 856 43 2 499,999.00
North Murray 6 – AAA 1-0 25.49 408,158 24,912 1,431 82 1 999,999.00
Redan 5 – AAA 1-1 33.35 110,163 2,927 521 48 1 999,999.00
Bremen 6 – AAA 0-1 23.16 527,607 20,619 824 48
Monroe Area 8 – AAA 0-1 24.45 656,665 16,647 612 24
Fannin County 7 – AAA 1-0 22.59 236,795 621 53 3
Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 0-0 19.65 149,817 213 17
East Hall 7 – AAA 0-2 20.09 148,385 259 12
Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-2 19.06 103,158 1,029 11
Rutland 4 – AAA 0-1 18.06 65,118 562 9
Pike County 4 – AAA 0-1 16.21 84,411 535 8
Dougherty 1 – AAA 0-1 18.84 107,155 496 6
Long County 2 – AAA 1-0 13.05 113,049 361 4
Beach 3 – AAA 0-1 12.31 724,886 199 3
Savannah 3 – AAA 0-1 8.77 612,854 110 3
Murray County 6 – AAA 1-0 4.56 47,799 73
Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-1 7.13 522,081 54
East Jackson 8 – AAA 1-1 5.39 49,190 23
Haralson County 6 – AAA 0-1 -0.05 9,069 4
McNair 5 – AAA 1-0 16.31 5,392 3
Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 0-1 -6.55 46,214 1
Islands 3 – AAA 0-2 -6.48 44,507 1
Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-2 -10.16 3,093 1
Groves 3 – AAA 0-1 -6.29 57,047
Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 0-2 -14.72 1,182
Towers 5 – AAA 0-2 8.39 876
Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 0-2 1.16 87

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine 2 – AA 1-0 72.35 999,987 931,205 801,795 697,218 568,624 0.76
Fitzgerald 1 – AA 1-0 63.11 999,572 867,183 543,344 441,044 193,374 4.17
Brooks County 1 – AA 1-0 57.83 997,639 749,039 319,111 199,770 68,094 13.69
Callaway 5 – AA 2-0 56.95 999,651 744,797 529,706 167,259 67,487 13.82
Jefferson County 4 – AA 2-0 53.44 999,905 846,167 476,365 122,619 39,119 24.56
Elbert County 8 – AA 1-0-1 53.67 999,950 490,516 198,019 138,608 31,423 30.82
Vidalia 2 – AA 2-0 51.46 996,626 430,815 165,414 88,847 17,009 57.79
Dodge County 3 – AA 0-1 44.73 977,976 291,447 164,229 34,723 4,352 228.78
Rabun County 8 – AA 0-0 45.56 999,193 169,472 49,332 20,247 3,002 332.11
Laney 4 – AA 0-2 39.83 995,655 400,000 143,840 17,327 1,558 640.85
Washington County 3 – AA 0-1 41.64 965,990 189,566 87,830 14,231 1,416 705.21
Early County 1 – AA 0-1 42.05 933,700 200,797 67,937 10,316 1,064 938.85
Lamar County 5 – AA 1-0 39.46 981,282 228,075 95,575 12,269 1,004 995.02
Heard County 5 – AA 2-0 37.43 972,235 177,290 67,608 7,604 545 1,833.86
Dublin 3 – AA 2-0 38.47 926,391 118,275 44,925 5,905 499 2,003.01
Thomasville 1 – AA 0-2 38.80 904,632 140,454 49,013 5,553 437 2,287.33
Model 7 – AA 1-0 39.38 991,713 156,354 19,897 4,069 424 2,357.49
Screven County 4 – AA 0-1 35.59 986,452 234,811 67,432 6,026 352 2,839.91
Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 1-0 30.88 909,906 160,458 38,283 2,695 94 10,637.30
B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 0-2 28.57 854,405 103,615 20,283 1,071 39 25,640.03
Southwest 3 – AA 1-0 32.47 742,107 28,479 5,515 481 30 33,332.33
Spencer 5 – AA 0-1 31.48 843,403 44,608 7,780 588 21 47,618.05
Pepperell 7 – AA 0-0 30.04 929,054 36,897 5,368 420 16 62,499.00
Bryan County 2 – AA 1-0 28.03 472,834 32,785 4,599 196 5 199,999.00
Metter 2 – AA 0-1 26.20 541,634 30,513 3,868 139 4 249,999.00
Douglass 6 – AA 0-1 23.85 663,284 33,278 4,157 157 2 499,999.00
Therrell 6 – AA 1-1 24.05 673,665 35,277 4,571 149 2 499,999.00
Washington 6 – AA 0-1 23.77 658,857 32,652 4,050 134 2 499,999.00
Bacon County 2 – AA 0-1 26.43 469,069 26,568 3,346 110 1 999,999.00
Chattooga 7 – AA 1-0 26.22 755,717 16,092 2,330 104 1 999,999.00
Swainsboro 2 – AA 0-2 25.55 435,904 22,074 2,625 83
Dade County 7 – AA 1-1 19.65 572,797 3,475 344 9
Northeast 3 – AA 0-1 23.45 231,255 1,626 123 9
Banks County 8 – AA 0-2 16.05 762,811 10,063 459 8
Coosa 7 – AA 1-0 19.34 489,623 2,741 291 6
Berrien 1 – AA 1-1 20.18 145,425 1,455 194 5
Albany 1 – AA 0-2 6.92 19,032 14 2 1
Monticello 8 – AA 0-1 13.73 614,898 5,871 242
Rockmart 7 – AA 1-1 15.21 253,705 603 46
Putnam County 8 – AA 0-2 8.85 362,570 1,460 31
K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 2-0 11.92 124,384 516 27
South Atlanta 6 – AA 0-2 12.49 115,499 595 26
Toombs County 2 – AA 1-1 14.00 65,076 520 21
Bleckley County 3 – AA 0-2 17.94 145,730 374 13
Jordan 5 – AA 0-2 14.25 113,768 282 9
Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 0-1 8.75 237,260 86 7
Harlem 4 – AA 1-0 10.15 302,874 174 6
Josey 4 – AA 1-0 8.56 231,896 88 4
Social Circle 8 – AA 1-1 2.74 176,816 253 3
Temple 5 – AA 1-0 8.38 89,661 73 2
Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-0 -2.23 83,762 46 2
Butler 4 – AA 0-2 6.00 143,976 36 1
Jeff Davis 2 – AA 0-1 10.37 18,870 81
Glenn Hills 4 – AA 1-0 4.28 101,982 5
East Laurens 3 – AA 0-2 6.96 10,551 3
Armuchee 7 – AA 1-1 -1.58 7,306 1
Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-2 -18.31 85

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Clinch County 2 – A 2-0 47.59 999,714 818,179 626,126 448,502 300,061 2.33
Macon County 4 – A 1-0 46.22 905,902 668,402 486,430 322,379 194,059 4.15
Irwin County 2 – A 1-1 43.98 981,749 661,204 431,197 256,156 138,441 6.22
Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 2-0 42.57 999,937 727,199 473,153 268,362 132,718 6.53
Marion County 4 – A 2-0 40.15 974,387 546,567 311,339 150,692 65,244 14.33
Commerce 8 – A 1-0 38.71 999,672 620,202 324,847 148,142 58,135 16.20
Manchester 4 – A 2-0 36.52 954,312 375,188 175,686 67,917 23,390 41.75
Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 1-0 34.94 972,018 456,506 199,166 73,451 22,538 43.37
Lincoln County 7 – A 1-0 34.89 944,002 400,638 170,627 61,736 18,910 51.88
Bowdon 6 – A 1-0 34.76 921,151 304,181 126,957 43,985 13,529 72.92
Trion 6 – A 1-0 32.22 904,740 333,108 122,316 37,768 9,632 102.82
McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 1-1 31.51 874,736 232,764 82,659 22,820 5,552 179.12
Turner County 2 – A 1-1 31.20 740,589 203,560 71,181 19,268 4,571 217.77
Charlton County 2 – A 0-1 31.57 707,119 168,430 59,470 16,841 4,276 232.86
Pelham 1 – A 2-0 25.22 997,679 347,412 97,251 20,068 2,920 341.47
Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 0-1 30.35 389,722 85,561 27,275 7,240 1,595 625.96
Seminole County 1 – A 1-0 23.45 972,019 275,313 68,696 12,359 1,504 663.89
Hawkinsville 4 – A 1-0 27.49 510,311 72,912 19,305 4,051 726 1,376.41
Greene County 7 – A 1-0 26.42 639,256 83,261 20,443 3,849 609 1,641.04
Mitchell County 1 – A 1-0 19.92 994,100 209,272 37,400 5,047 456 2,191.98
Johnson County 3 – A 2-0 23.61 866,343 102,463 21,639 3,378 432 2,313.81
Gordon Lee 6 – A 1-0 24.09 625,083 64,014 13,589 2,156 270 3,702.70
Telfair County 2 – A 1-0 21.77 585,817 58,332 10,784 1,483 169 5,916.16
Wilkinson County 7 – A 0-1 23.33 284,109 30,824 6,100 945 148 6,755.76
Dooly County 4 – A 0-2 25.58 93,487 9,855 2,187 375 59 16,948.15
Miller County 1 – A 1-0 12.56 924,353 48,096 4,742 327 16 62,499.00
Twiggs County 7 – A 1-0 17.26 275,018 13,773 1,796 168 12 83,332.33
Taylor County 4 – A 1-0 16.14 258,262 10,516 1,237 107 8 124,999.00
Randolph-Clay 1 – A 1-0 9.55 767,206 26,713 2,033 114 7 142,856.14
Atkinson County 2 – A 1-1 18.50 195,097 8,794 1,112 109 5 199,999.00
Chattahoochee County 1 – A 0-1 9.60 734,205 15,983 1,257 61 4 249,999.00
Treutlen 3 – A 2-0 15.74 235,033 8,713 978 60 3 333,332.33
Hancock Central 7 – A 1-1 18.23 82,254 3,656 480 53 1 999,999.00
Jenkins County 3 – A 2-0 11.85 312,607 5,367 373 23
Terrell County 1 – A 0-2 5.28 259,869 2,115 96 6
Crawford County 4 – A 1-0 13.69 6,320 206 19 2
Warren County 7 – A 1-0 10.40 22,165 307 24
Claxton 3 – A 0-1 10.12 15,638 228 23
Wilcox County 2 – A 0-1 5.89 2,575 17 3
Lanier County 2 – A 0-1 3.51 5,767 31 2
Greenville 4 – A 0-2 10.41 1,171 24 2
Towns County 8 – A 1-0 -2.75 45,632 94
Portal 3 – A 0-1 5.30 2,639 16
Calhoun County 1 – A 0-1 -11.23 14,790 4
Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-1 -11.40 766
Wheeler County 3 – A 1-1 -1.67 617
Schley County 4 – A 1-1 2.93 32
Montgomery County 3 – A 0-1 -5.72 30
Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 0-1 -10.12
Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-2 -24.52
Stewart County 1 – A 0-1 -31.14

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 2-0 59.81 1,000,000 944,966 846,086 716,894 526,584 0.90
Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 2-0 54.27 1,000,000 913,356 778,058 579,715 285,019 2.51
Wesleyan 5 – A 2-0 46.60 1,000,000 828,601 534,652 208,636 69,304 13.43
Aquinas 7 – A 1-1 46.16 999,970 718,258 429,477 161,973 52,881 17.91
Darlington 6 – A 1-0 42.20 999,737 620,267 290,244 86,602 22,270 43.90
Landmark Christian 5 – A 1-0 40.11 999,939 641,391 237,684 67,059 14,545 67.75
Calvary Day 3 – A 2-0 39.73 999,880 444,899 177,125 46,307 9,598 103.19
Stratford Academy 7 – A 1-0 36.61 995,246 420,722 131,105 28,514 4,956 200.78
Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 1-0 36.62 998,013 410,861 127,845 27,110 4,556 218.49
Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 1-1 36.17 998,411 294,882 84,134 17,975 2,980 334.57
Savannah Christian 3 – A 1-1 35.21 994,410 344,327 95,331 18,708 2,839 351.24
First Presbyterian 7 – A 1-0 33.31 997,907 262,608 65,326 11,357 1,475 676.97
Fellowship Christian 6 – A 2-0 33.15 999,743 249,791 64,107 10,892 1,315 759.46
Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-1 31.76 963,016 186,457 40,183 6,168 686 1,456.73
Athens Academy 8 – A 1-0 29.22 999,992 263,597 39,711 5,674 520 1,922.08
Athens Christian 8 – A 1-0 28.05 999,938 220,683 31,186 4,029 317 3,153.57
Brookstone 4 – A 1-0 27.85 903,803 62,428 10,091 1,030 82 12,194.12
Holy Innocents 5 – A 1-1 26.11 984,409 57,204 9,055 878 58 17,240.38
George Walton Academy 8 – A 1-0 20.24 991,744 42,812 3,661 223 8 124,999.00
Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 1-1 20.12 871,394 24,735 2,186 120 2 499,999.00
Christian Heritage 6 – A 0-1 20.83 731,816 18,218 1,430 85 2 499,999.00
Tattnall Square 7 – A 1-0 16.18 650,782 8,865 509 23 1 999,999.00
Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 1-0 13.69 929,836 11,497 512 18 1 999,999.00
Mount de Sales 7 – A 1-1 13.12 230,126 1,794 68 3 1 999,999.00
Savannah Country Day 3 – A 0-1 12.02 349,965 2,499 101 5
Walker 6 – A 0-1 14.09 210,483 1,975 89 1
St. Francis 6 – A 0-1 9.17 102,239 392 10 1
Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 1-0 6.47 580,399 1,256 26
King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 1-0 7.07 76,121 216 3
Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 0-1 1.91 114,041 113 3
Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 1-0 1.60 286,011 316 2
Pacelli 4 – A 0-2 4.25 3,448 9
Lakeview Academy 8 – A 0-1 -5.95 29,645 4
Whitefield Academy 6 – A 0-1 0.51 1,473 1
Providence Christian 8 – A 1-0 -15.17 5,552
North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-1 -6.64 511

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