Maxwell playoff projections after Week 1

Article and photos courtesy of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution –> Original Article Here

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2016 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.


Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Mill Creek 6 – AAAAAAA 1-0 95.29 999,972 829,128 636,541 403,240 277,838 2.60
Colquitt County 1 – AAAAAAA 0-1 94.68 999,858 888,558 666,733 398,764 269,234 2.71
Roswell 4 – AAAAAAA 1-0 90.38 999,865 707,590 597,752 430,292 191,423 4.22
Grayson 8 – AAAAAAA 0-0 88.53 999,261 808,472 438,296 210,189 98,474 9.15
McEachern 3 – AAAAAAA 1-0 88.52 999,814 812,559 369,880 180,084 88,461 10.30
Archer 8 – AAAAAAA 0-1 82.12 985,858 591,225 309,364 120,181 32,905 29.39
Norcross 7 – AAAAAAA 1-0 79.31 999,702 504,949 266,513 94,415 20,376 48.08
Peachtree Ridge 6 – AAAAAAA 1-0 78.10 992,484 268,020 149,650 55,869 10,744 92.08
Camden County 1 – AAAAAAA 0-1 72.52 973,357 278,888 74,296 18,116 2,210 451.49
Lowndes 1 – AAAAAAA 0-1 71.82 873,053 267,523 76,554 17,870 2,093 476.78
Hillgrove 3 – AAAAAAA 1-0 70.58 973,467 253,767 53,225 12,828 1,373 727.33
Brookwood 7 – AAAAAAA 1-0 69.67 994,993 193,531 46,240 8,520 858 1,164.50
Etowah 4 – AAAAAAA 1-0 69.99 952,566 128,882 38,216 7,677 850 1,175.47
Westlake 2 – AAAAAAA 0-0 67.71 988,100 149,055 42,897 7,329 622 1,606.72
North Cobb 3 – AAAAAAA 1-0 67.86 958,174 155,576 29,701 5,413 451 2,216.29
Tift County 1 – AAAAAAA 1-0 67.38 764,357 133,422 23,677 4,125 328 3,047.78
South Gwinnett 8 – AAAAAAA 1-0 67.92 770,852 77,261 21,706 3,525 295 3,388.83
Parkview 7 – AAAAAAA 1-0 66.30 989,027 145,402 24,377 3,651 285 3,507.77
Newton 8 – AAAAAAA 1-0 67.62 719,748 65,292 18,027 2,907 242 4,131.23
East Coweta 2 – AAAAAAA 1-0 65.38 980,532 100,343 22,861 3,188 222 4,503.50
Milton 5 – AAAAAAA 1-0 64.69 968,174 120,465 15,888 2,825 183 5,463.48
Walton 4 – AAAAAAA 0-1 65.79 858,100 73,890 15,482 2,122 155 6,450.61
North Gwinnett 6 – AAAAAAA 0-1 64.42 878,712 59,364 12,516 1,565 108 9,258.26
Shiloh 8 – AAAAAAA 1-0 65.27 650,927 41,118 9,851 1,326 99 10,100.01
Central Gwinnett 7 – AAAAAAA 0-1 61.50 968,128 86,189 8,683 1,023 50 19,999.00
Collins Hill 6 – AAAAAAA 0-1 63.27 836,132 46,958 8,708 944 46 21,738.13
West Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 1-0 60.16 921,215 48,289 4,724 546 18 55,554.56
Wheeler 2 – AAAAAAA 1-0 60.02 942,182 34,114 5,082 454 15 66,665.67
South Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 0-1 58.48 887,611 34,756 3,174 280 15 66,665.67
North Paulding 3 – AAAAAAA 1-0 60.01 799,272 31,009 3,608 328 14 71,427.57
Lassiter 4 – AAAAAAA 1-0 56.76 585,095 15,736 1,703 105 6 166,665.67
Lambert 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 57.01 836,445 23,513 1,925 154 5 199,999.00
Newnan 2 – AAAAAAA 0-1 55.33 844,322 10,332 1,183 90 1 999,999.00
Woodstock 4 – AAAAAAA 0-1 52.05 320,278 4,327 296 18 1 999,999.00
Cherokee 4 – AAAAAAA 0-1 52.63 343,809 5,056 402 27
Mountain View 6 – AAAAAAA 1-0 50.36 312,536 2,045 114 5
North Forsyth 5 – AAAAAAA 1-0 46.57 370,837 1,481 55 3
Marietta 3 – AAAAAAA 0-1 50.08 287,454 1,543 82 2
Pebblebrook 2 – AAAAAAA 1-0 43.33 263,847 283 16
Kennesaw Mountain 3 – AAAAAAA 0-1 38.24 34,307 25 1
Rockdale County 8 – AAAAAAA 1-0 40.79 20,905 15 1
Forsyth Central 5 – AAAAAAA 0-0 36.15 80,932 36
Meadowcreek 7 – AAAAAAA 0-0 25.44 13,803 5
Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 – AAAAAAA 1-0 27.66 19,767 4
Berkmar 7 – AAAAAAA 0-1 27.47 17,130 4
Campbell 2 – AAAAAAA 0-1 25.50 10,687
Duluth 6 – AAAAAAA 0-1 28.06 8,467
Discovery 6 – AAAAAAA 0-1 25.55 3,886

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Valdosta 1 – AAAAAA 1-0 80.75 963,620 826,753 669,042 513,440 383,293 1.61
Northside (Warner Robins) 1 – AAAAAA 1-0 73.85 860,462 627,131 432,508 253,308 125,040 7.00
Allatoona 6 – AAAAAA 0-1 73.01 995,341 715,048 437,946 222,499 115,085 7.69
Dacula 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 72.81 999,590 679,333 335,945 197,679 99,627 9.04
Lee County 1 – AAAAAA 1-0 70.94 773,617 501,960 308,273 147,291 62,325 15.04
Coffee 1 – AAAAAA 1-0 69.77 768,151 483,645 289,147 132,481 51,545 18.40
Mays 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 69.37 895,717 365,883 216,896 100,708 39,842 24.10
Houston County 1 – AAAAAA 1-0 68.54 634,150 366,850 202,627 82,656 30,502 31.78
Tucker 4 – AAAAAA 0-1 65.58 962,919 420,199 166,369 64,565 19,963 49.09
Hughes 5 – AAAAAA 1-0 66.44 843,602 272,475 141,608 54,954 18,172 54.03
Dalton 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 63.22 939,230 314,122 105,625 33,458 8,977 110.40
Lanier 8 – AAAAAA 1-0 62.54 994,487 316,076 94,383 31,024 7,677 129.26
Glynn Academy 2 – AAAAAA 0-1 61.79 998,652 297,641 91,307 30,709 7,299 136.01
Stephenson 4 – AAAAAA 0-1 61.53 906,238 268,845 80,960 23,388 5,649 176.02
Harrison 6 – AAAAAA 1-0 61.92 913,919 263,443 80,491 23,557 5,608 177.32
Creekside 5 – AAAAAA 1-0 63.09 665,287 150,438 65,296 20,311 5,416 183.64
Northgate 5 – AAAAAA 1-0 62.15 626,088 129,319 52,830 15,539 3,833 259.89
South Paulding 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 61.79 598,653 119,925 48,342 13,882 3,402 292.94
Gainesville 8 – AAAAAA 1-0 59.99 986,778 236,136 58,969 16,130 3,323 299.93
Drew 4 – AAAAAA 0-1 56.67 764,582 130,872 27,022 5,458 951 1,050.52
Alpharetta 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 56.76 979,387 67,477 22,987 5,418 838 1,192.32
Lovejoy 4 – AAAAAA 0-1 55.79 724,125 110,442 21,094 4,074 630 1,586.30
Creekview 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 55.45 743,200 92,567 16,594 3,127 458 2,182.41
Alexander 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 56.57 287,104 31,216 9,169 1,787 298 3,354.70
Effingham County 2 – AAAAAA 0-1 50.82 973,244 59,848 7,619 998 121 8,263.46
Brunswick 2 – AAAAAA 0-0 49.21 961,698 44,793 4,946 528 50 19,999.00
Cambridge 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 48.10 848,752 13,587 2,142 197 18 55,554.56
Mundy’s Mill 4 – AAAAAA 0-1 48.66 305,504 17,455 1,904 175 16 62,499.00
Lakeside (Evans) 3 – AAAAAA 0-1 46.67 986,886 15,790 2,232 191 13 76,922.08
M.L. King 4 – AAAAAA 1-0 47.81 294,822 14,700 1,370 150 9 111,110.11
Northview 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 46.40 760,881 9,001 1,218 97 8 124,999.00
Centennial 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 46.36 818,317 9,741 1,394 126 7 142,856.14
New Manchester 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 49.10 60,249 2,423 416 40 2 499,999.00
Sprayberry 6 – AAAAAA 0-0 44.51 187,943 3,962 274 14 1 999,999.00
Sequoyah 6 – AAAAAA 0-1 43.39 176,585 3,144 183 10 1 999,999.00
Douglas County 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 42.87 10,396 167 19 1 1 999,999.00
Evans 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 39.11 909,505 3,316 277 16
Richmond Hill 2 – AAAAAA 0-0 39.42 855,536 6,686 259 9
Grovetown 3 – AAAAAA 0-1 33.93 745,737 931 49 2
Tri-Cities 5 – AAAAAA 0-0 43.54 12,904 219 26 2
Winder-Barrow 8 – AAAAAA 0-1 37.78 623,678 3,272 140 1
Johns Creek 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 37.71 325,190 877 48
Habersham Central 8 – AAAAAA 1-0 33.10 371,316 826 18
Alcovy 3 – AAAAAA 1-0 30.09 582,820 308 10
Jonesboro 4 – AAAAAA 0-1 37.19 36,374 282 7
Pope 7 – AAAAAA 0-0 33.01 134,421 136 6
Heritage (Conyers) 3 – AAAAAA 0-1 29.78 619,844 324 4
South Cobb 6 – AAAAAA 0-1 36.19 37,755 204 4
Chattahoochee 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 32.04 119,660 99 3
Bradwell Institute 2 – AAAAAA 0-0 25.22 210,870 88 2
Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 – AAAAAA 1-0 29.96 5,436 13
Greenbrier 3 – AAAAAA 0-0 19.44 155,208 6
North Atlanta 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 24.00 11,951 3
River Ridge 6 – AAAAAA 1-0 28.13 6,027 2
Apalachee 8 – AAAAAA 0-0 14.15 24,151 1
Dunwoody 7 – AAAAAA 0-1 17.36 1,441
Osborne 6 – AAAAAA 0-1 19.68
Forest Park 4 – AAAAAA 1-0 15.56

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Buford 8 – AAAAA 0-1 82.19 999,986 917,386 824,374 746,447 589,879 0.70
Ware County 2 – AAAAA 0-0 72.34 999,992 767,468 529,449 372,500 143,014 5.99
Stockbridge 4 – AAAAA 0-0 69.71 994,668 779,325 635,900 296,662 107,470 8.30
Kell 7 – AAAAA 1-0 70.05 988,569 773,297 377,294 235,568 88,761 10.27
Carrollton 7 – AAAAA 1-0 61.82 923,465 532,200 178,132 65,693 16,504 59.59
Jones County 4 – AAAAA 0-1 60.54 951,813 436,437 265,077 61,234 14,273 69.06
Starr’s Mill 3 – AAAAA 0-0 59.50 989,965 441,652 221,000 43,477 10,154 97.48
Bainbridge 1 – AAAAA 0-0 60.18 955,628 400,719 112,477 40,357 9,259 107.00
Thomas County Central 1 – AAAAA 1-0 58.58 943,743 356,917 95,114 30,208 5,978 166.28
Carver (Atlanta) 6 – AAAAA 1-0 55.84 994,918 304,755 151,191 22,634 4,083 243.92
Rome 7 – AAAAA 0-0 55.65 717,837 280,083 85,830 15,400 2,553 390.70
Griffin 3 – AAAAA 0-0 54.10 960,708 264,988 91,527 13,706 2,010 496.51
Warner Robins 1 – AAAAA 0-1 53.88 832,637 212,902 52,905 10,084 1,424 701.25
East Paulding 7 – AAAAA 0-1 53.59 604,791 201,263 56,329 8,583 1,219 819.34
Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 – AAAAA 1-0 51.57 712,082 92,561 32,683 4,647 551 1,813.88
Harris County 1 – AAAAA 1-0 50.77 760,019 144,987 33,206 4,532 520 1,922.08
Clarke Central 8 – AAAAA 1-0 49.96 935,068 105,526 30,580 4,888 419 2,385.63
Dutchtown 4 – AAAAA 0-0 50.45 657,100 79,497 26,391 3,501 364 2,746.25
Wayne County 2 – AAAAA 0-0 49.82 994,626 82,099 24,998 3,507 351 2,848.00
Riverwood 6 – AAAAA 0-0 48.46 970,112 106,265 34,026 3,679 330 3,029.30
Grady 6 – AAAAA 1-0 47.25 940,613 78,820 22,347 2,308 172 5,812.95
Flowery Branch 8 – AAAAA 0-0 47.12 899,929 71,522 18,133 1,967 145 6,895.55
South Effingham 2 – AAAAA 0-1 46.69 989,371 60,808 15,666 1,440 111 9,008.01
Villa Rica 7 – AAAAA 1-0 48.17 274,258 56,149 11,362 1,081 109 9,173.31
Loganville 8 – AAAAA 0-0 46.55 893,902 66,355 16,353 1,681 106 9,432.96
Veterans 1 – AAAAA 0-1 45.83 507,973 53,619 9,796 803 60 16,665.67
Paulding County 7 – AAAAA 0-1 46.61 199,947 34,249 6,399 565 33 30,302.03
Miller Grove 5 – AAAAA 1-0 42.32 869,962 42,523 6,070 399 23 43,477.26
Locust Grove 4 – AAAAA 0-0 45.69 374,417 20,035 4,354 434 22 45,453.55
Southwest DeKalb 5 – AAAAA 1-0 42.79 881,700 46,640 7,033 471 19 52,630.58
Hiram 7 – AAAAA 1-0 44.69 132,644 18,614 2,972 218 18 55,554.56
Arabia Mountain 5 – AAAAA 1-0 41.24 837,274 33,126 4,366 294 16 62,499.00
Cass 7 – AAAAA 0-0 44.99 158,448 22,844 3,683 278 14 71,427.57
McIntosh 3 – AAAAA 1-0 41.14 703,661 24,172 2,562 166 10 99,999.00
Columbia 5 – AAAAA 0-1 40.70 799,027 27,053 3,337 183 7 142,856.14
Statesboro 2 – AAAAA 0-0 39.37 971,023 18,803 3,100 166 6 166,665.67
Eagle’s Landing 4 – AAAAA 0-1 42.55 217,928 6,757 1,072 92 5 199,999.00
Whitewater 3 – AAAAA 0-0 39.49 639,777 16,207 1,462 87 5 199,999.00
Fayette County 3 – AAAAA 0-0 37.14 459,805 7,506 477 30 3 333,332.33
Lithonia 5 – AAAAA 0-1 35.32 543,760 6,165 445 15
Riverdale 3 – AAAAA 1-0 33.93 245,263 2,089 97 6
Decatur 6 – AAAAA 0-1 32.90 500,809 2,041 164 5
Maynard Jackson 6 – AAAAA 0-0 31.78 403,505 1,254 88 2
Cedar Shoals 8 – AAAAA 0-0 30.50 180,964 1,149 91 1
Ola 4 – AAAAA 1-0 36.70 73,979 785 72 1
Walnut Grove 8 – AAAAA 0-0 24.99 88,372 191 9
Lithia Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-0 23.90 119,800 73 4
Union Grove 4 – AAAAA 0-1 31.25 18,003 66 3
Chamblee 5 – AAAAA 0-1 20.78 68,277 36
Banneker 6 – AAAAA 0-0 20.09 49,807 18
New Hampstead 2 – AAAAA 0-1 7.75 44,988 2
North Springs 6 – AAAAA 0-0 15.88 20,436 2
Johnson (Gainesville) 8 – AAAAA 0-1 5.38 1,779
Morrow 3 – AAAAA 0-1 4.60 821
Woodland (Cartersville) 7 – AAAAA 0-1 18.28 41
Hampton 4 – AAAAA 1-0 9.28 10
Clarkston 5 – AAAAA 0-1 -5.66
Cross Keys 5 – AAAAA 0-0 -28.79

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Cartersville 5 – AAAA 1-0 82.74 999,966 942,189 751,647 627,255 499,006 1.00
Woodward Academy 4 – AAAA 1-0 74.47 999,974 882,662 369,731 256,283 140,230 6.13
Sandy Creek 5 – AAAA 0-1 71.04 999,006 784,196 601,665 375,475 126,687 6.89
Blessed Trinity 7 – AAAA 1-0 71.46 999,981 828,823 639,175 265,014 118,402 7.45
Marist 7 – AAAA 0-0 67.32 999,920 739,724 505,621 178,870 57,005 16.54
St. Pius X 8 – AAAA 0-1 64.08 988,858 692,139 297,627 99,644 24,643 39.58
Jefferson 8 – AAAA 1-0 62.90 988,435 682,916 278,927 87,696 19,954 49.12
Thomson 3 – AAAA 1-0 58.18 999,226 171,151 107,349 35,069 5,164 192.65
Carver (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 0-1 56.79 986,950 214,515 92,449 20,978 2,955 337.41
Mary Persons 2 – AAAA 0-1 56.36 974,535 385,870 100,588 17,040 2,735 364.63
Burke County 3 – AAAA 1-0 55.04 998,634 107,879 52,667 13,463 1,601 623.61
Cairo 1 – AAAA 1-0 51.53 961,011 113,277 37,253 5,389 515 1,940.75
West Laurens 2 – AAAA 0-0 49.84 886,652 207,151 32,305 4,109 332 3,011.05
Eastside 4 – AAAA 1-0 47.79 945,279 220,884 26,169 3,831 244 4,097.36
Spalding 2 – AAAA 0-0 47.64 830,591 149,829 18,681 2,130 134 7,461.69
Upson-Lee 2 – AAAA 0-0 45.75 812,901 123,007 13,535 1,383 81 12,344.68
Stephens County 8 – AAAA 0-0 46.03 770,637 126,548 12,797 1,265 80 12,499.00
North Oconee 8 – AAAA 0-0 45.01 707,884 111,654 10,337 966 57 17,542.86
Pickens 6 – AAAA 1-0 44.12 979,599 112,603 10,704 1,142 54 18,517.52
Oconee County 8 – AAAA 0-0 42.97 528,544 65,979 5,210 410 27 37,036.04
Northwest Whitfield 6 – AAAA 1-0 42.11 963,200 75,091 6,001 533 22 45,453.55
Westover 1 – AAAA 0-0 44.38 784,286 26,462 5,857 479 21 47,618.05
Ridgeland 6 – AAAA 1-0 42.27 968,244 77,084 6,214 526 17 58,822.53
Central (Carrollton) 5 – AAAA 0-1 42.69 803,966 24,111 5,063 375 16 62,499.00
Salem 4 – AAAA 1-0 40.18 823,943 51,329 3,412 231 9 111,110.11
LaGrange 5 – AAAA 0-1 41.22 677,534 14,938 3,032 211 5 199,999.00
Baldwin 3 – AAAA 1-0 38.85 951,498 13,222 2,086 96 3 333,332.33
Howard 2 – AAAA 0-1 34.89 227,549 6,029 245 7 1 999,999.00
Northside (Columbus) 1 – AAAA 1-0 38.20 478,118 5,349 886 36
Luella 4 – AAAA 0-1 35.22 624,736 15,648 717 25
West Hall 7 – AAAA 0-1 32.87 928,693 4,472 546 25
Shaw 1 – AAAA 0-0 37.18 387,383 3,678 570 21
Perry 2 – AAAA 0-0 34.78 267,772 7,067 274 11
Chapel Hill 5 – AAAA 0-0 34.05 289,748 1,932 198 5
Americus-Sumter 1 – AAAA 0-0 33.24 256,647 1,224 146 2
White County 7 – AAAA 0-1 25.43 834,972 619 32 2
Druid Hills 4 – AAAA 1-0 29.45 273,842 2,247 71 1
Richmond Academy 3 – AAAA 0-0 27.24 772,707 1,465 66 1
Henry County 4 – AAAA 0-0 28.53 259,550 1,792 44 1
Columbus 1 – AAAA 0-0 30.26 109,106 296 32
Southeast Whitfield 6 – AAAA 1-0 24.95 456,397 1,193 27
Cedartown 5 – AAAA 0-1 27.89 129,754 232 13
Gilmer 6 – AAAA 0-1 23.21 309,897 595 12
Troup 5 – AAAA 0-1 25.34 100,026 142 7
Heritage (Ringgold) 6 – AAAA 1-0 22.26 293,117 485 4
Hardaway 1 – AAAA 1-0 24.86 36,499 41 4
North Clayton 4 – AAAA 0-1 22.08 72,676 158 3
Cross Creek 3 – AAAA 1-0 15.20 254,088 51 1
Madison County 8 – AAAA 0-0 16.32 15,642 37
Chestatee 7 – AAAA 0-1 11.94 236,434 12
LaFayette 6 – AAAA 1-0 9.61 29,546 3
Hephzibah 3 – AAAA 0-1 -1.63 23,847

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Calhoun 6 – AAA 1-0 70.58 999,385 889,093 711,300 598,721 382,693 1.61
Greater Atlanta Christian 7 – AAA 1-0 69.60 999,984 797,591 733,834 550,871 326,335 2.06
Cedar Grove 5 – AAA 1-0 64.63 997,348 841,876 576,103 312,305 154,103 5.49
Westminster (Atlanta) 5 – AAA 0-1 58.58 989,033 685,753 377,382 155,383 52,604 18.01
Lovett 5 – AAA 0-1 55.37 975,878 534,838 272,674 86,520 24,305 40.14
Hart County 8 – AAA 0-0-1 52.71 998,487 610,074 290,501 70,025 16,762 58.66
Peach County 4 – AAA 0-0 53.06 995,132 512,848 202,803 59,273 14,218 69.33
Westside (Macon) 4 – AAA 1-0 52.00 993,096 442,789 166,667 46,474 10,475 94.47
Pace Academy 5 – AAA 0-0 50.45 948,408 314,353 129,957 30,382 6,082 163.42
Liberty County 2 – AAA 0-0 47.45 993,466 373,429 86,932 19,963 3,266 305.18
Worth County 1 – AAA 0-1 46.99 980,784 212,174 86,676 16,086 2,527 394.73
Cook 1 – AAA 0-1 45.89 977,196 194,289 73,569 12,636 1,803 553.63
Monroe 1 – AAA 0-0 45.41 970,920 182,886 66,695 11,246 1,621 615.90
Jackson 4 – AAA 1-0 44.52 962,120 242,386 56,641 8,853 1,119 892.66
Pierce County 2 – AAA 0-0 43.37 984,870 241,523 44,551 7,290 871 1,147.11
Crisp County 1 – AAA 1-0 42.48 955,952 138,132 41,604 5,901 627 1,593.90
Appling County 2 – AAA 0-0 40.62 956,099 142,493 22,393 2,860 261 3,830.42
Adairsville 6 – AAA 0-1 37.60 887,876 166,925 20,671 2,494 187 5,346.59
Morgan County 8 – AAA 0-0 34.83 874,230 94,876 8,523 727 37 27,026.03
Central (Macon) 4 – AAA 0-0 34.39 760,579 71,411 5,624 433 26 38,460.54
North Hall 7 – AAA 1-0 35.79 871,422 29,859 5,210 375 19 52,630.58
Jackson County 8 – AAA 1-0 31.50 839,016 53,905 3,814 240 15 66,665.67
Southeast Bulloch 3 – AAA 0-0 33.12 997,799 27,603 2,504 230 13 76,922.08
Sonoraville 6 – AAA 0-0 30.27 665,785 42,396 3,309 189 13 76,922.08
Jenkins 3 – AAA 1-0 31.54 994,557 20,127 1,943 135 6 166,665.67
Franklin County 8 – AAA 1-0 30.61 748,828 38,316 2,392 129 6 166,665.67
Ringgold 6 – AAA 0-1 29.29 511,694 27,532 1,770 94 2 499,999.00
Dawson County 7 – AAA 0-0 30.91 704,266 10,225 1,104 53 2 499,999.00
Union County 7 – AAA 0-0 28.24 591,230 5,258 445 24 1 999,999.00
Tattnall County 2 – AAA 0-1 23.96 546,695 7,407 276 5 1 999,999.00
North Murray 6 – AAA 1-0 25.57 399,622 15,500 813 37
Monroe Area 8 – AAA 0-0 24.92 523,794 9,259 391 21
Bremen 6 – AAA 0-0 23.65 468,530 11,573 508 17
Redan 5 – AAA 0-1 26.61 71,324 796 72 3
East Hall 7 – AAA 0-1 23.58 310,760 1,172 55 2
Brantley County 2 – AAA 0-1 20.18 307,541 2,233 71 1
Kendrick 4 – AAA 0-1 21.44 146,270 2,226 43 1
Beach 3 – AAA 0-0 13.88 756,010 395 15 1
Fannin County 7 – AAA 1-0 24.06 351,235 1,537 101
Rutland 4 – AAA 0-0 19.49 84,718 874 17
Dougherty 1 – AAA 0-1 18.62 115,148 567 16
Lumpkin County 7 – AAA 0-0 19.73 171,103 329 12
Long County 2 – AAA 0-0 14.35 211,329 548 10
Johnson (Savannah) 3 – AAA 0-0 8.12 530,430 119 4
Pike County 4 – AAA 0-1 15.35 58,085 324 3
Savannah 3 – AAA 0-0 8.05 522,838 99 1
Towers 5 – AAA 0-1 15.22 9,613 10 1
Murray County 6 – AAA 1-0 4.61 39,901 39
Haralson County 6 – AAA 0-0 6.15 23,917 20
McNair 5 – AAA 0-0 15.12 8,255 7
Groves 3 – AAA 0-0 -1.99 112,845 3
Islands 3 – AAA 0-1 -7.64 28,369 2
East Jackson 8 – AAA 0-1 1.89 15,645 1
Windsor Forest 3 – AAA 0-0 -4.67 57,152
Coahulla Creek 6 – AAA 0-1 -9.80 2,517
Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 – AAA 0-1 -15.22 773
Stone Mountain 5 – AAA 0-1 0.30 141

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine 2 – AA 1-0 70.10 999,968 905,856 747,745 652,662 527,261 0.90
Fitzgerald 1 – AA 0-0 61.07 999,204 859,039 499,123 385,650 179,953 4.56
Brooks County 1 – AA 1-0 58.23 998,025 802,708 380,619 258,742 105,438 8.48
Callaway 5 – AA 1-0 54.69 999,185 668,291 481,250 154,873 59,525 15.80
Elbert County 8 – AA 0-0-1 54.67 999,910 500,713 222,994 156,034 45,631 20.91
Jefferson County 4 – AA 1-0 51.03 999,809 774,091 424,603 107,465 32,548 29.72
Vidalia 2 – AA 1-0 51.60 995,239 437,519 177,724 98,427 22,656 43.14
Washington County 3 – AA 0-0 45.62 994,884 332,925 193,249 42,198 7,052 140.80
Dodge County 3 – AA 0-1 44.84 991,861 317,365 178,654 37,588 6,001 165.64
Lamar County 5 – AA 0-0 43.08 987,051 324,797 162,009 28,882 4,118 241.84
Rabun County 8 – AA 0-0 45.64 998,673 184,865 56,820 22,284 4,062 245.18
Laney 4 – AA 0-1 40.69 996,396 415,969 147,004 20,592 2,461 405.34
Early County 1 – AA 0-1 42.13 938,481 218,612 71,969 11,779 1,668 598.52
Heard County 5 – AA 1-0 36.69 955,305 139,671 44,965 5,468 491 2,035.66
Screven County 4 – AA 0-1 35.67 987,251 212,501 55,578 5,493 412 2,426.18
Model 7 – AA 0-0 36.27 980,093 97,244 12,671 2,160 207 4,829.92
Washington 6 – AA 0-0 31.80 942,299 158,038 34,120 2,425 142 7,041.25
Thomasville 1 – AA 0-1 34.25 803,553 71,058 20,515 1,681 110 9,089.91
Hapeville Charter 6 – AA 1-0 30.96 930,371 136,382 27,044 1,879 83 12,047.19
Dublin 3 – AA 1-0 32.66 893,913 49,814 9,854 845 46 21,738.13
Spencer 5 – AA 0-0 31.71 844,106 50,970 7,796 684 43 23,254.81
B.E.S.T. Academy 6 – AA 0-1 28.60 885,234 85,799 13,784 756 35 28,570.43
Pepperell 7 – AA 0-0 30.12 920,965 35,438 5,023 439 19 52,630.58
Bacon County 2 – AA 0-0 29.01 563,665 46,989 6,849 345 17 58,822.53
Swainsboro 2 – AA 0-1 27.76 503,647 35,912 4,793 194 7 142,856.14
Chattooga 7 – AA 0-0 26.30 779,125 16,246 2,220 104 5 199,999.00
Metter 2 – AA 0-1 25.69 408,393 21,690 2,406 99 3 333,332.33
Bryan County 2 – AA 0-0 26.49 362,163 21,042 2,439 97 3 333,332.33
Douglass 6 – AA 0-1 23.97 736,506 28,345 2,950 93 2 499,999.00
Monticello 8 – AA 0-0 16.52 633,781 9,526 482 7 1 999,999.00
Banks County 8 – AA 0-1 19.06 764,377 16,687 1,102 17
Berrien 1 – AA 0-1 22.48 221,825 3,218 493 10
Coosa 7 – AA 0-0 19.12 477,129 2,654 234 8
Bleckley County 3 – AA 0-1 20.70 443,127 2,365 125 6
Northeast 3 – AA 0-0 20.28 322,922 1,582 67 5
Rockmart 7 – AA 1-0 18.22 393,725 1,801 159 2
Southwest 3 – AA 0-0 19.21 314,615 1,269 62 2
Dade County 7 – AA 0-1 17.76 439,811 1,882 161 1
Therrell 6 – AA 0-1 15.11 273,192 1,740 78 1
Jeff Davis 2 – AA 0-0 16.78 63,798 837 37 1
Jordan 5 – AA 0-1 16.45 175,161 937 21 1
Albany 1 – AA 0-1 10.19 38,912 80 8 1
Putnam County 8 – AA 0-1 11.41 368,613 2,292 84
Toombs County 2 – AA 1-0 18.01 103,127 1,562 70
South Atlanta 6 – AA 0-1 13.25 172,607 757 26
Social Circle 8 – AA 1-0 5.66 180,648 417 7
Harlem 4 – AA 0-0 9.94 347,379 186 6
Westside (Augusta) 4 – AA 0-0 9.13 294,545 143 4
Josey 4 – AA 0-0 6.93 198,560 44 1
K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 – AA 1-0 6.88 59,791 37 1
Oglethorpe County 8 – AA 0-0 -2.15 53,998 37 1
Temple 5 – AA 0-0 2.45 39,192 20 1
Butler 4 – AA 0-1 5.88 166,271 24
East Laurens 3 – AA 0-1 7.44 38,678 13
Armuchee 7 – AA 0-1 -1.30 9,064 1
Glenn Hills 4 – AA 0-0 -7.52 9,789
Gordon Central 7 – AA 0-1 -18.36 88

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Irwin County 2 – A 1-0 46.28 991,928 748,885 538,352 363,935 233,122 3.29
Clinch County 2 – A 1-0 45.88 997,851 758,186 539,644 361,874 227,297 3.40
Macon County 4 – A 0-0 44.16 838,472 575,245 396,827 243,052 135,843 6.36
Marion County 4 – A 1-0 41.22 982,569 614,183 375,696 198,083 95,372 9.49
Charlton County 2 – A 0-0 41.12 994,761 635,246 374,401 199,763 95,002 9.53
Emanuel County Institute 3 – A 1-0 40.31 997,918 636,694 378,767 194,083 87,159 10.47
Commerce 8 – A 0-0 37.31 998,813 574,552 289,856 125,918 47,466 20.07
Lincoln County 7 – A 0-0 33.95 942,036 383,491 162,527 57,669 17,481 56.20
Bowdon 6 – A 0-0 34.38 906,535 301,241 127,292 45,135 14,230 69.27
Trion 6 – A 0-0 32.13 912,661 351,166 132,595 42,924 11,606 85.16
Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 – A 0-0 31.94 924,798 326,351 123,205 38,366 10,062 98.38
McIntosh County Academy 3 – A 1-0 30.54 828,890 228,624 79,607 22,061 5,248 189.55
Manchester 4 – A 1-0 30.89 806,061 212,486 75,169 21,394 5,240 189.84
Pelham 1 – A 1-0 26.01 999,173 390,570 112,285 26,018 4,216 236.19
Turner County 2 – A 1-0 30.27 718,048 187,099 62,292 17,323 4,157 239.56
Seminole County 1 – A 0-0 24.24 986,236 302,336 76,497 15,255 2,234 446.63
Washington-Wilkes 7 – A 0-0 28.61 450,912 92,158 27,950 6,772 1,400 713.29
Johnson County 3 – A 1-0 24.90 926,783 167,593 40,986 7,845 1,201 831.64
Dooly County 4 – A 0-1 27.14 269,022 46,097 13,146 2,948 524 1,907.40
Gordon Lee 6 – A 1-0 23.36 543,135 57,429 11,942 1,925 257 3,890.05
Telfair County 2 – A 0-0 22.59 578,676 64,481 12,884 1,983 256 3,905.25
Hawkinsville 4 – A 0-0 23.59 362,241 39,468 8,731 1,512 224 4,463.29
Wilkinson County 7 – A 0-0 22.47 435,618 51,451 10,481 1,601 210 4,760.90
Mitchell County 1 – A 0-0 16.26 967,234 125,817 16,733 1,670 139 7,193.24
Greene County 7 – A 0-0 19.74 186,138 11,690 1,912 213 18 55,554.56
Taylor County 4 – A 1-0 17.24 398,273 21,163 2,835 288 17 58,822.53
Hancock Central 7 – A 0-1 17.01 136,819 6,012 748 68 6 166,665.67
Chattahoochee County 1 – A 0-0 8.66 786,575 14,883 1,030 45 4 249,999.00
Jenkins County 3 – A 1-0 11.91 414,048 8,867 756 40 4 249,999.00
Terrell County 1 – A 0-1 8.02 627,620 18,903 1,200 53 2 499,999.00
Miller County 1 – A 0-0 9.03 737,200 15,481 1,110 63 1 999,999.00
Randolph-Clay 1 – A 1-0 9.64 635,450 18,312 1,312 60 1 999,999.00
Claxton 3 – A 0-0 14.44 107,424 3,142 333 15 1 999,999.00
Wilcox County 2 – A 0-0 13.60 140,496 4,483 434 25
Treutlen 3 – A 1-0 11.28 93,882 1,958 167 14
Twiggs County 7 – A 0-0 10.66 77,251 1,642 114 4
Warren County 7 – A 1-0 11.69 43,639 1,029 76 2
Greenville 4 – A 0-1 10.06 7,977 149 15 1
Atkinson County 2 – A 0-1 9.58 56,146 764 55
Portal 3 – A 0-0 8.43 27,394 369 31
Wheeler County 3 – A 1-0 3.42 23,731 141 4
Calhoun County 1 – A 0-0 -6.26 116,734 93 2
Crawford County 4 – A 0-0 6.94 1,229 19 1
Towns County 8 – A 1-0 -2.67 12,004 26
Lanier County 2 – A 0-0 1.38 5,346 23
Baconton Charter 1 – A 1-0 -10.13 4,069 2
Montgomery County 3 – A 0-1 -5.51 153
Central (Talbotton) 4 – A 0-1 -8.03 25
Schley County 4 – A 0-1 -7.10 5
Fulton Leadership Academy 5 – A 0-1 -17.88 1
Stewart County 1 – A 0-0 -31.67

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Record Rating Playoffs Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Eagle’s Landing Christian 5 – A 1-0 61.76 1,000,000 956,393 857,013 737,588 568,306 0.76
Prince Avenue Christian 8 – A 1-0 54.41 1,000,000 919,651 750,641 551,922 247,951 3.03
Mount Paran Christian 6 – A 1-0 46.54 999,987 787,738 430,873 158,802 51,872 18.28
Wesleyan 5 – A 1-0 45.49 999,979 804,292 454,338 157,724 45,773 20.85
Aquinas 7 – A 0-1 45.09 999,934 701,266 386,963 135,534 37,297 25.81
Darlington 6 – A 1-0 42.28 999,376 607,411 254,116 75,062 17,794 55.20
Landmark Christian 5 – A 1-0 40.17 999,555 598,326 199,099 54,820 11,421 86.56
Calvary Day 3 – A 1-0 39.16 999,746 448,919 168,688 40,532 7,296 136.06
Stratford Academy 7 – A 0-0 36.64 996,338 468,309 140,687 29,049 4,538 219.36
Mount Pisgah Christian 6 – A 1-0 36.23 993,740 345,920 96,825 19,577 3,021 330.02
Savannah Christian 3 – A 0-1 35.70 991,769 381,297 105,440 20,374 2,986 333.90
Pinecrest Academy 6 – A 0-0 32.86 977,351 225,962 50,703 8,124 962 1,038.50
Athens Academy 8 – A 1-0 29.30 999,950 220,311 32,825 4,282 374 2,672.80
First Presbyterian 7 – A 0-0 27.97 949,702 94,369 17,374 1,815 127 7,873.02
Brookstone 4 – A 1-0 28.57 888,668 77,322 14,210 1,569 108 9,258.26
Athens Christian 8 – A 0-0 25.87 998,964 134,963 16,184 1,573 107 9,344.79
Holy Innocents 5 – A 0-1 24.84 981,284 58,325 8,087 654 32 31,249.00
Our Lady of Mercy 5 – A 0-1 22.98 880,405 50,968 5,583 405 13 76,922.08
Fellowship Christian 6 – A 1-0 22.90 931,036 37,299 4,712 329 12 83,332.33
Christian Heritage 6 – A 0-1 20.91 884,877 25,526 2,482 164 7 142,856.14
Mount de Sales 7 – A 1-0 18.07 552,459 10,680 771 35 2 499,999.00
George Walton Academy 8 – A 0-0 17.09 950,016 21,136 1,493 47 1 999,999.00
Hebron Christian Academy 8 – A 1-0 12.46 865,256 10,736 414 10
Walker 6 – A 0-1 14.17 335,151 3,919 177 5
Savannah Country Day 3 – A 0-0 12.11 356,231 2,960 122 1
Pacelli 4 – A 0-1 12.16 255,619 1,925 74 1
Whitefield Academy 6 – A 0-0 11.41 246,651 1,711 50 1
St. Francis 6 – A 0-0 11.64 226,140 1,542 47 1
King’s Ridge Christian 6 – A 1-0 7.19 107,454 303 4
Lakeview Academy 8 – A 0-0 -0.90 209,427 135 2
Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 – A 0-0 -2.82 82,674 33 2
Tattnall Square 7 – A 0-0 4.96 58,393 128 1
Riverside Military Academy 8 – A 0-0 1.43 126,373 125
Strong Rock Christian 5 – A 0-0 -2.31 135,772 89
North Cobb Christian 6 – A 0-0 -2.35 18,697 11
Providence Christian 8 – A 0-0 -20.67 1,026